Compare Sergei Pavlovich vs Serghei Spivac — UFC matchup breakdown
Tale of the Tape
The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.
Activity & layoff
The recency dimension Tale of the Tape doesn't carry. How active each fighter has been, and how that compares to active peers in their division.
- Serghei is speeding up while opponent slows
Division percentiles below rank both fighters against the Heavyweight roster (343 fighters).
Recent form
Last five pro bouts (non-UFC fights dashed + tagged), current trajectory, and the level of opposition going into this matchup.
Common opponents
Every UFC opponent both fighters have faced — a direct comparison controlling for matchmaking.
Schedule Score
Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.
Per-tier records + bout-by-bout
| Tier | Sergei Pavlovich | Serghei Spivac |
|---|---|---|
| Champion | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Top-5 | 5-2 | 2-3 |
| Top-15 | 3-0 | 4-2 |
| Building | — | 2-0 |
| Unproven | 1-0 | 1-0 |
- W vs Tallison Teixeira#1564May 30, 2026 · Top-15
- W vs Waldo Cortes Acosta#679Aug 23, 2025 · Top-5
- W vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik#979Feb 1, 2025 · Top-5
- L vs Alexander Volkov#584Jun 22, 2024 · Top-5
- L vs Tom Aspinall#493Nov 11, 2023 · Champion
- W vs Curtis Blaydes#485Apr 22, 2023 · Top-5
- W vs Tai Tuivasa#483Dec 3, 2022 · Top-5
- W vs Derrick Lewis#584Jul 30, 2022 · Top-5
- W vs Shamil Abdurakhimov#1072Mar 19, 2022 · Top-15
- W vs Maurice Greene#1561Oct 26, 2019 · Top-15
- W vs Marcelo Golm8Apr 20, 2019 · Unproven
- L vs Alistair Overeem#685Nov 24, 2018 · Top-5
- W vs Ante Delija#970Feb 21, 2026 · Top-15
- L vs Waldo Cortes Acosta#1176Jun 7, 2025 · Top-5
- L vs Jailton Almeida#677Jan 18, 2025 · Top-5
- W vs Marcin Tybura#873Aug 10, 2024 · Top-15
- L vs Ciryl Gane#292Sep 2, 2023 · Top-5
- W vs Derrick Lewis#782Feb 4, 2023 · Top-5
- W vs Augusto Sakai#1467Aug 6, 2022 · Top-15
- W vs Greg Hardy18Mar 5, 2022 · Building
- L vs Tom Aspinall#1387Sep 4, 2021 · Champion
- W vs Aleksei Oleinik#1568Jun 19, 2021 · Top-15
- W vs Jared Vanderaa8Feb 20, 2021 · Unproven
- W vs Carlos Felipe15Jul 18, 2020 · Building
- L vs Marcin Tybura#1469Feb 29, 2020 · Top-15
- W vs Tai Tuivasa#1476Oct 5, 2019 · Top-5
- L vs Walt Harris#1369May 4, 2019 · Top-15
All figures are 0–100 ratings (shown as %), not percentages of anything literal. Schedule strength = the average quality of every UFC opponent faced (win or lose). Win quality = the average quality of the opponents actually beaten. The composite Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with win quality (35%). Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, falling back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. For fighters with limited UFC experience the headline is held toward a rookie baseline, so debut / low-sample fighters read lower than established names. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.
Career splits
Striking matchup
Each fighter's offense mapped against the other's defense — where one attacks meets where the other gets hit, across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.
Pavlovich has the striking edge (+13).
Where Pavlovich attacks (green = high volume) vs where Spivac gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Pavlovich’s green zones meeting Spivac’s red zones are the openings.
- Head83%85th237
- Body11%51st30
- Leg6%50th18
Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes
- Head66%30th348
- Body21%26th113
- Leg13%40th70
Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent
- Standing82%235
- Clinch7%19
- Ground11%31
- Standing83%439
- Clinch8%43
- Ground9%49
Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.
Full breakdown — all zones, both views
| Zone | Fighter | Landed / 15 | Accuracy | Absorbed / 15 | Career landed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head | Sergei Pavlovich | top 15% of division46.3 | 41% | around division average30.1 | 237 |
| Head | Serghei Spivac | top 16% of division45.6 | 46% | below division average39.8 | 421 |
| Body | Sergei Pavlovich | around division average7.8 | 65% | below division average9.1 | 30 |
| Body | Serghei Spivac | well below average3.8 | 80% | well below average12.4 | 16 |
| Leg | Sergei Pavlovich | around division average5.3 | 95% | bottom of the division13.8 | 18 |
| Leg | Serghei Spivac | below division average2.8 | 92% | below division average8.2 | 11 |
Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.
Grappling matchup
Takedowns, submission threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.
Each metric graded on the division — the bar leans toward whoever wins that part of the grappling exchange (longer + greener = a bigger edge).
Spivac has the grappling edge (+22).
Full breakdown — career grappling totals
| Metric | Sergei Pavlovich | Serghei Spivac |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns | 0.52 | 3.832 |
| Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted | 25%2 / 8 | 59%32 / 54 |
| Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced | 75%3 / 4 | 64%7 / 11 |
| Submission attempts / 15career attempts | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Control time / 15 (min)career total | 1.8 min7:38 | 4.9 min41:13 |
| Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total | 0.5 min1:59 | 1.8 min15:23 |
All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time. Accuracy under 8 career attempts is shown raw and ungraded — too small a sample to rate against the division.
Finishing & durability
How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.
When their fights end
every pro finish on the fight clockFinish & durability rates
Full professional career
Full method breakdown
| Outcome | Sergei Pavlovich | Serghei Spivac |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | ||
| by KO / TKO | 16(76%) | 7(39%) |
| by submission | 0(0%) | 8(44%) |
| by decision | 5(24%) | 3(17%) |
| Losses | ||
| by KO / TKO | 2(67%) | 4(67%) |
| by submission | 0(0%) | 0(0%) |
| by decision | 1(33%) | 2(33%) |
Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.
KO history
UFC fights only — knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head, then when the last finish landed, and on whom.
- Last time KO'dvs Tom Aspinall2y 7mo agoUFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · Nov 11, 2023 · R1 · 1:09
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
- Last time KO'dvs Jailton Almeida1y 5mo agoUFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025 · R1 · 4:53
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
Pace & fade
How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.
Cardio edge to Spivac: Spivac builds (+6% per round through round 3) while Pavlovich fades (-8% per round through round 3). Within fights that reached round 3, Pavlovich lifts to 189% of round-1 output by round 3, Spivac 162%.
Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.
Full per-round breakdown — both fighters
What drives the pace · per round
The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.
| Round | Fighter | Output / min | Sig landed / min | Sig absorbed / min | TD att / min | Control | Bouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Sergei Pavlovich | 6.2 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 0.09 | 7% | 12 |
| R1 | Serghei Spivac | 5.8 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 0.53 | 32% | 15 |
| R2 | Sergei Pavlovich | 3.5 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 0.07 | 15% | 3 |
| R2 | Serghei Spivac | 6.5 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 0.30 | 33% | 9 |
| R3 | Sergei Pavlovich | 5.4 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 0.27 | 21% | 3 |
| R3 | Serghei Spivac | 6.6 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 0.40 | 36% | 5 |
Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.