Allan Nascimento vs Mitch Raposo — Flyweight at UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi
- Weight class
- Flyweight
- Rounds
- 3 × 5 min
- Venue
- Meta Apex · Las Vegas, Nevada
Markets
Record when favored vs. an underdog, across the 5priced bouts in each fighter’s history.
Career splits
5 bouts · vs Raposo
- KO/TKO0
- Submission2
- Decision2
- KO/TKO0
- Submission0
- Decision1
- Average11:18
- vs Orthodox2-0
- vs Southpaw2-1
- vs Switchno data
- vs Longer reachno data
- vs Shorter reachno data
3 bouts · vs Nascimento
- KO/TKO0
- Submission0
- Decision1
- KO/TKO0
- Submission0
- Decision2
- Average15:00
- vs Orthodox0-1
- vs Southpaw1-1
- vs Switchno data
- vs Longer reach1-1
- vs Shorter reachno data
Tale of the Tape
The biometric and experience deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.
Finishing & durability
How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.
When their fights end
every UFC finish on the fight clockFull method breakdown
| Outcome | Allan Nascimento | Mitch Raposo |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | ||
| by KO / TKO | 00% | 00% |
| by submission | 250% | 00% |
| by decision | 250% | 1100% |
| Losses | ||
| by KO / TKO | 00% | 00% |
| by submission | 00% | 00% |
| by decision | 1100% | 2100% |
| Pace | ||
| Avg finish time (own wins) | R2 0:44 | — |
| Finishes used in avg | 2 | 0 |
Counts come from the same denormalised win/loss-by-method columns the rest of the site uses. The percentile context on each row is computed against fighters currently assigned to this weight class with at least two resolved UFC bouts.
KO history
Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head — then when the last finish landed, and on whom.
- Last KO/TKO scoredNo KO/TKO wins in the UFC yet
- Last time KO'dNever finished by strikes in the UFC
- Last submission scoredvs Cody Durden6 months agoUFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · Nov 1, 2025 · R2 · 3:13
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
- Last KO/TKO scoredNo KO/TKO wins in the UFC yet
- Last time KO'dNever finished by strikes in the UFC
- Last submission scoredNo submission wins in the UFC yet
- Last time submittedvs Jake Hadley4y 7mo agoDana White's Contender Series 43 · Oct 12, 2021 · R2 · 3:11
Common opponents
UFC opponents both fighters have faced — a direct read on relative quality controlling for matchmaking.
These two fighters haven’t crossed paths in the UFC cage with any of the same opponents.
Schedule Score
Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.
Per-tier records + bout-by-bout
| Tier | Allan Nascimento | Mitch Raposo |
|---|---|---|
| Top-15 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Cross-div ranked | 1-0 | — |
| Building | 1-0 | — |
| Unproven | 2-0 | 1-1 |
Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with quality wins (35%) and is Bayesian-shrunken toward the UFC median for small samples. Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, and falls back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.
Recent form
Last five UFC bouts, current trajectory, and the level of opposition faced going into this matchup.
Striking matchup
Where each fighter lands their strikes — and where each one gets hit — across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.
Full breakdown — all zones, both views
| Zone | Fighter | Landed / 15 | Accuracy | Absorbed / 15 | Career landed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head | Allan Nascimento | 11.7bottom of the division | 31% | 20.4top 23% of division | 44 |
| Head | Mitch Raposo | 16.0well below average | 36% | 17.7top 13% of division | 48 |
| Body | Allan Nascimento | 6.11well below average | 53% | 4.51elite — top of division | 23 |
| Body | Mitch Raposo | 6.33well below average | 61% | 4.33elite — top of division | 19 |
| Leg | Allan Nascimento | 12.5top 16% of division | 87% | 1.59elite — top of division | 47 |
| Leg | Mitch Raposo | 1.33bottom of the division | 100% | 16.3bottom of the division | 4 |
Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.
Grappling matchup
Wrestling output, ground threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.
Full breakdown — career grappling totals
| Metric | Allan Nascimento | Mitch Raposo | Career totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Takedowns landed / 15 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 5 / 7 |
| Takedown accuracy | 31% | 33% | 5/16 · 7/21 |
| Takedown defense | 40% | 65% | stopped 6/15 · 13/20 |
| Submission attempts / 15 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 5 / 0 |
| Control time / 15 (min) | 5.2 min | 1.8 min | 19:30 · 5:16 |
| Time controlled BY opponent / 15 (min) | 5.9 min | 1.9 min | 22:19 · 5:36 |
All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time.
Pace & fade
How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.
Cardio edge to Raposo: Raposo actually builds to 145% of round-1 work rate through round 3, while Nascimento actually builds to 106% — a 39-point gap in late-round pace.
Full per-round breakdown — both fighters
What drives the pace · per round
The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.
| Round | Fighter | Output / min | Sig landed / min | Sig absorbed / min | TD att / min | Control | Bouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Allan Nascimento | 4.4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 0.43 | 24% | 5 |
| R1 | Mitch Raposo | 2.8 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 0.47 | 7% | 3 |
| R2 | Allan Nascimento | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.05 | 44% | 4 |
| R2 | Mitch Raposo | 3.6 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 0.47 | 10% | 3 |
| R3 | Allan Nascimento | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.33 | 39% | 3 |
| R3 | Mitch Raposo | 4.0 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 0.47 | 18% | 3 |
Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace. See Methods for the full formula.
Activity & layoff
The recency dimension Tale of the Tape doesn't carry. How active each fighter has been, and how that compares to active peers in their division.