Ion Cutelaba vs Navajo Stirling — Light Heavyweight at UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi
- Weight class
- Light Heavyweight
- Rounds
- 3 × 5 min
- Venue
- Meta Apex · Las Vegas, Nevada
Markets
Record when favored vs. an underdog, across the 14priced bouts in each fighter’s history.
Career splits
19 bouts · vs Stirling
- KO/TKO4
- Submission2
- Decision3
- KO/TKO3
- Submission4
- Decision3
- Average7:37
- vs Orthodox7-7
- vs Southpaw2-1
- vs Switch0-2
- vs Longer reach4-8
- vs Shorter reach2-0
4 bouts · vs Cutelaba
- KO/TKO1
- Submission0
- Decision3
- KO/TKO—
- Submission—
- Decision—
- Average13:31
- vs Orthodox4-0
- vs Southpawno data
- vs Switchno data
- vs Longer reachno data
- vs Shorter reach1-0
Tale of the Tape
The biometric and experience deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.
Finishing & durability
How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.
When their fights end
every UFC finish on the fight clockFull method breakdown
| Outcome | Ion Cutelaba | Navajo Stirling |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | ||
| by KO / TKO | 444% | 125% |
| by submission | 222% | 00% |
| by decision | 333% | 375% |
| Losses | ||
| by KO / TKO | 330% | 0 |
| by submission | 440% | 0 |
| by decision | 330% | 0 |
| Pace | ||
| Avg finish time (own wins) | R1 2:47 | R2 4:05 |
| Finishes used in avg | 6 | 1 |
Counts come from the same denormalised win/loss-by-method columns the rest of the site uses. The percentile context on each row is computed against fighters currently assigned to this weight class with at least two resolved UFC bouts.
KO history
Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head — then when the last finish landed, and on whom.
- Last KO/TKO scoredvs Tanner Boser3y 1mo agoUFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · Apr 15, 2023 · R1 · 2:05
- Last time KO'dvs Kennedy Nzechukwu3y 6mo agoUFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · Nov 19, 2022 · R2 · 1:02
- Last submission scoredvs Oumar Sy2 months agoUFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026 · R1 · 4:24
- Last time submittedvs Johnny Walker3y 8mo agoUFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · Sep 10, 2022 · R1 · 4:37
- Last KO/TKO scoredvs Bruno Lopes2 months agoUFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Mar 28, 2026 · R2 · 4:05
- Last time KO'dNever finished by strikes in the UFC
- Last submission scoredNo submission wins in the UFC yet
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
Common opponents
The single UFC opponent both fighters have faced. Reads as a directional signal, not a verdict.
Schedule Score
Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.
Per-tier records + bout-by-bout
| Tier | Ion Cutelaba | Navajo Stirling |
|---|---|---|
| Top-15 | 1-4 | — |
| Cross-div ranked | 1-0 | — |
| Established | 1-1 | — |
| Building | 3-3-1 | — |
| Unproven | 3-2 | 4-0 |
- W vs Oumar Sy18Mar 14, 2026 · Building
- L vs Modestas Bukauskas30May 10, 2025 · Established
- W vs Ibo Aslan8Feb 22, 2025 · Unproven
- W vs Ivan Erslan8Sep 28, 2024 · Unproven
- L vs Philipe Lins18Mar 9, 2024 · Building
- W vs Tanner Boser45Apr 15, 2023 · Cross-div ranked
- L vs Kennedy Nzechukwu18Nov 19, 2022 · Building
- L vs Johnny Walker#1363Sep 10, 2022 · Top-15
- L vs Ryan Spann#1363May 14, 2022 · Top-15
- W vs Devin Clark30Sep 18, 2021 · Established
- D vs Dustin Jacoby18May 1, 2021 · Building
- L vs Magomed Ankalaev#1167Oct 24, 2020 · Top-15
- L vs Magomed Ankalaev18Feb 29, 2020 · Building
- W vs Khalil Rountree Jr.18Sep 28, 2019 · Building
- L vs Glover Teixeira#1167Apr 27, 2019 · Top-15
- W vs Gadzhimurad Antigulov#1462Jul 28, 2018 · Top-15
- W vs Henrique da Silva18Jun 10, 2017 · Building
- L vs Jared Cannonier8Dec 3, 2016 · Unproven
- W vs Jonathan Wilson8Oct 1, 2016 · Unproven
- L vs Misha Cirkunov8Jun 18, 2016 · Unproven
Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with quality wins (35%) and is Bayesian-shrunken toward the UFC median for small samples. Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, and falls back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.
Recent form
Last five UFC bouts, current trajectory, and the level of opposition faced going into this matchup.
Striking matchup
Where each fighter lands their strikes — and where each one gets hit — across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.
Full breakdown — all zones, both views
| Zone | Fighter | Landed / 15 | Accuracy | Absorbed / 15 | Career landed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head | Ion Cutelaba | 44.2top 25% of division | 37% | 36.7around division average | 470 |
| Head | Navajo Stirling | 44.7top 23% of division | 39% | 22.7top 19% of division | 161 |
| Body | Ion Cutelaba | 11.4above division average | 71% | 5.92top 17% of division | 121 |
| Body | Navajo Stirling | 33.0elite — top of division | 70% | 8.32above division average | 119 |
| Leg | Ion Cutelaba | 7.89around division average | 83% | 6.48above division average | 84 |
| Leg | Navajo Stirling | 14.4top 19% of division | 74% | 7.49above division average | 52 |
Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.
Grappling matchup
Wrestling output, ground threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.
Full breakdown — career grappling totals
| Metric | Ion Cutelaba | Navajo Stirling | Career totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Takedowns landed / 15 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 40 / 4 |
| Takedown accuracy | 49% | 44% | 40/81 · 4/9 |
| Takedown defense | 76% | 81% | stopped 31/41 · 21/26 |
| Submission attempts / 15 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 2 / 0 |
| Control time / 15 (min) | 3.4 min | 2.6 min | 35:57 · 9:19 |
| Time controlled BY opponent / 15 (min) | 2.7 min | 2.4 min | 28:51 · 8:40 |
All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time.
Pace & fade
How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.
Cardio edge to Stirling: Stirling actually builds to 141% of round-1 work rate through round 3, while Cutelaba drops to 65% — a 76-point gap in late-round pace.
Full per-round breakdown — both fighters
What drives the pace · per round
The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.
| Round | Fighter | Output / min | Sig landed / min | Sig absorbed / min | TD att / min | Control | Bouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ion Cutelaba | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 0.53 | 27% | 20 |
| R1 | Navajo Stirling | 6.1 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.10 | 7% | 4 |
| R2 | Ion Cutelaba | 6.5 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 0.54 | 20% | 10 |
| R2 | Navajo Stirling | 6.9 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.21 | 29% | 4 |
| R3 | Ion Cutelaba | 4.7 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 0.41 | 16% | 8 |
| R3 | Navajo Stirling | 9.4 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.20 | 15% | 3 |
Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace. See Methods for the full formula.
Activity & layoff
The recency dimension Tale of the Tape doesn't carry. How active each fighter has been, and how that compares to active peers in their division.