Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan — Middleweight at UFC Fight Night 281
- Weight class
- Middleweight
- Rounds
- 5 × 5 min
- Venue
- Paycom Center · Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Matchup read
Where each fighter holds an advantage in this matchup — offense weighed against the opponent's defense. Tap any row to see the numbers behind it. Descriptive — not a prediction.
StrikingSlight edge · Duncan
Duncan out-strikes Cannonier
GrapplingSlight edge · Cannonier
Cannonier has the bigger wrestling edge on Duncan
SubmissionEven
Little submission threat either way
FinishingSlight edge · Duncan
Duncan is more likely to finish Cannonier
PaceSlight edge · Duncan
Duncan pushes a higher work rate · Duncan fades more late
Tale of the tapeClear edge · Duncan
Duncan 2" reach · Duncan 5 cm · Duncan 12y younger
Each edge weighs one fighter’s offense against the other’s defense in this matchup, not each fighter vs the division in isolation — so a strong defense reduces (not erases) the opposing threat. Tap a row for the percentiles behind it. Thin samples are dimmed; too little data reads “not enough data.”
Markets
Record when favored vs. an underdog, across each fighter’s priced UFC bouts.
Career splits
Tale of the Tape
The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.
Recent form
Last five pro bouts (non-UFC fights dashed + tagged), current trajectory, and the level of opposition going into this matchup.
Common opponents
The single UFC opponent both fighters have faced. Reads as a directional signal, not a verdict.
Schedule Score
Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.
Per-tier records + bout-by-bout
| Tier | Jared Cannonier | Christian Leroy Duncan |
|---|---|---|
| Champion | 0-1 | — |
| Top-5 | 3-2 | — |
| Top-15 | 4-3 | 1-0 |
| Cross-div ranked | 0-1 | — |
| Established | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Building | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Unproven | 3-1 | 4-0 |
- L vs Michael Page45Aug 16, 2025 · Cross-div ranked
- W vs Gregory Rodrigues30Feb 15, 2025 · Established
- L vs Caio Borralho#1265Aug 24, 2024 · Top-15
- L vs Nassourdine Imavov#872Jun 8, 2024 · Top-15
- W vs Marvin Vettori#384Jun 17, 2023 · Top-5
- W vs Sean Strickland#773Dec 17, 2022 · Top-15
- L vs Israel AdesanyaCHAMP100Jul 2, 2022 · Champion
- W vs Derek Brunson#481Feb 12, 2022 · Top-5
- W vs Kelvin Gastelum#970Aug 21, 2021 · Top-15
- L vs Robert Whittaker#190Oct 24, 2020 · Top-5
- W vs Jack Hermansson#578Sep 28, 2019 · Top-5
- W vs Anderson Silva#1560May 11, 2019 · Top-15
- W vs David Branch#773Nov 3, 2018 · Top-15
- L vs Dominick Reyes8May 19, 2018 · Unproven
- L vs Jan Blachowicz#1560Dec 16, 2017 · Top-15
- W vs Nick Roehrick8Jul 7, 2017 · Unproven
- L vs Glover Teixeira#384Feb 11, 2017 · Top-5
- W vs Ion Cutelaba8Dec 3, 2016 · Unproven
- W vs Cyril Asker8Apr 10, 2016 · Unproven
- L vs Shawn Jordan18Jan 3, 2015 · Building
- W vs Roman Dolidze#1167Mar 21, 2026 · Top-15
- W vs Marco Tulio8Nov 8, 2025 · Unproven
- W vs Eryk Anders30Aug 9, 2025 · Established
- W vs Andrey Pulyaev8Mar 22, 2025 · Unproven
- L vs Gregory Rodrigues30Jul 27, 2024 · Established
- W vs Claudio Ribeiro8Mar 2, 2024 · Unproven
- W vs Denis Tiuliulin8Nov 18, 2023 · Unproven
- L vs Armen Petrosyan18Jun 17, 2023 · Building
- W vs Dusko Todorovic18Mar 18, 2023 · Building
Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with quality wins (35%). For fighters with limited UFC experience the headline is held toward a rookie baseline — a thin UFC résumé hasn’t yet proven a strong schedule — so debut and low-sample fighters read lower than established names. Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, and falls back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.
Striking matchup
Where each fighter lands their strikes — and where each one gets hit — across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.
Full breakdown — all zones, both views
| Zone | Fighter | Landed / 15 | Accuracy | Absorbed / 15 | Career landed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head | Jared Cannonier | 41.7top 17% of division | 41% | 44.9well below average | 772 |
| Head | Christian Leroy Duncan | 32.3above division average | 46% | 20.7top 22% of division | 195 |
| Body | Jared Cannonier | 13.3top 21% of division | 74% | 11.7well below average | 246 |
| Body | Christian Leroy Duncan | 10.3above division average | 63% | 7.63above division average | 62 |
| Leg | Jared Cannonier | 11.4top 19% of division | 81% | 8.63below division average | 212 |
| Leg | Christian Leroy Duncan | 23.9elite — top of division | 86% | 10.4well below average | 144 |
Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.
Grappling matchup
Wrestling output, ground threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.
Full breakdown — career grappling totals
| Metric | Jared Cannonier | Christian Leroy Duncan | Career totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Takedowns landed / 15 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 10 / 2 |
| Takedown accuracy | 40% | 17% | 10/25 · 2/12 |
| Takedown defense | 65% | 63% | stopped 44/68 · 19/30 |
| Submission attempts / 15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 / 0 |
| Control time / 15 (min) | 1.6 min | 3.2 min | 30:13 · 19:11 |
| Time controlled BY opponent / 15 (min) | 1.8 min | 4.2 min | 33:53 · 25:31 |
All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time.
Finishing & durability
How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.
When their fights end
every UFC finish on the fight clockFinish & durability rates
UFC bouts only
Full method breakdown
| Outcome | Jared Cannonier | Christian Leroy Duncan |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | ||
| by KO / TKO | 7(64%) | 5(71%) |
| by submission | 0(0%) | 0(0%) |
| by decision | 4(36%) | 2(29%) |
| Losses | ||
| by KO / TKO | 3(33%) | 0(0%) |
| by submission | 0(0%) | 0(0%) |
| by decision | 6(67%) | 2(100%) |
| Pace | ||
| Avg finish time (own wins) | R2 2:56 | R2 1:05 |
| Finishes used in avg | 7 | 5 |
Counts come from the same denormalised win/loss-by-method columns the rest of the site uses. The percentile context on each row is computed against fighters currently assigned to this weight class with at least two resolved UFC bouts.
KO history
UFC fights only — knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head, then when the last finish landed, and on whom.
- Last time KO'dvs Nassourdine Imavov1y 11mo agoUFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · Jun 8, 2024 · R4 · 1:34
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
- Last time KO'dNever finished by strikes in the UFC
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
Pace & fade
How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.
Cardio edge to Cannonier: Cannonier actually builds to 131% of round-1 work rate through round 3, while Duncan holds 89% — a 42-point gap in late-round pace.
Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.
Full per-round breakdown — both fighters
What drives the pace · per round
The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.
| Round | Fighter | Output / min | Sig landed / min | Sig absorbed / min | TD att / min | Control | Bouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jared Cannonier | 3.8 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 0.05 | 8% | 20 |
| R1 | Christian Leroy Duncan | 5.5 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.12 | 28% | 9 |
| R2 | Jared Cannonier | 6.5 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 0.11 | 11% | 16 |
| R2 | Christian Leroy Duncan | 7.1 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 0.20 | 17% | 7 |
| R3 | Jared Cannonier | 5.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 0.10 | 16% | 13 |
| R3 | Christian Leroy Duncan | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.05 | 14% | 4 |
| R4 | Jared Cannonier | 5.3 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 0.11 | 7% | 7 |
| R4 | Christian Leroy Duncan | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R5 | Jared Cannonier | 6.1 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 0.12 | 10% | 5 |
| R5 | Christian Leroy Duncan | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.
Activity & layoff
The recency dimension Tale of the Tape doesn't carry. How active each fighter has been, and how that compares to active peers in their division.
- Jared has 7 months more layoff