Kevin Holland vs Jacobe Smith — Welterweight at UFC Fight Night 281
- Weight class
- Welterweight
- Rounds
- 3 × 5 min
- Venue
- Paycom Center · Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Matchup read
Where each fighter holds an advantage in this matchup — offense weighed against the opponent's defense. Tap any row to see the numbers behind it. Descriptive — not a prediction.
StrikingEven
Even striking exchange
GrapplingClear edge · Smith
Smith has the bigger wrestling edge on Holland
SubmissionClear edge · Smith
Smith is the bigger submission threat — reduced by the defense of Holland
FinishingClear edge · Smith
Smith is more likely to finish Holland
PaceClear edge · Smith
Tale of the tapeClear edge · Holland
Holland 9" reach · Holland 13 cm
Each edge weighs one fighter’s offense against the other’s defense in this matchup, not each fighter vs the division in isolation — so a strong defense reduces (not erases) the opposing threat. Tap a row for the percentiles behind it. Thin samples are dimmed; too little data reads “not enough data.”
Markets
Record when favored vs. an underdog, across each fighter’s priced UFC bouts.
Career splits
Tale of the Tape
The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.
Recent form
Last five pro bouts (non-UFC fights dashed + tagged), current trajectory, and the level of opposition going into this matchup.
Common opponents
UFC opponents both fighters have faced — a direct read on relative quality controlling for matchmaking.
These two fighters haven’t crossed paths in the UFC cage with any of the same opponents.
Schedule Score
Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.
Based on opponents’ full career pro records (Sherdog, amateur bouts excluded) — a descriptive read of the non-UFC slate, not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.
Per-tier records + bout-by-bout
| Tier | Kevin Holland | Jacobe Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Top-5 | 1-0 | — |
| Top-15 | 5-7 | — |
| Cross-div ranked | 0-1 | — |
| Long-tenured vet | 2-0 | — |
| Established | 2-1 | 1-0 |
| Building | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| Unproven | 4-3, 1 NC | 1-0 |
- W vs Randy Brown60Apr 11, 2026 · Long-tenured vet
- L vs Mike Malott30Oct 18, 2025 · Established
- L vs Daniel Rodriguez#1560Jul 19, 2025 · Top-15
- W vs Vicente Luque#1462Jun 7, 2025 · Top-15
- W vs Gunnar Nelson#1265Mar 22, 2025 · Top-15
- L vs Reinier de Ridder8Jan 18, 2025 · Unproven
- L vs Roman Dolidze#1068Oct 5, 2024 · Top-15
- W vs Michal Oleksiejczuk30Jun 1, 2024 · Established
- L vs Michael Page8Mar 9, 2024 · Unproven
- L vs Jack Della Maddalena#1462Sep 16, 2023 · Top-15
- W vs Michael Chiesa#1265Jul 29, 2023 · Top-15
- W vs Santiago Ponzinibbio#1462Apr 8, 2023 · Top-15
- L vs Stephen Thompson#773Dec 3, 2022 · Top-15
- L vs Khamzat Chimaev45Sep 10, 2022 · Cross-div ranked
- W vs Tim Means60Jun 18, 2022 · Long-tenured vet
- W vs Alex Oliveira#1560Mar 5, 2022 · Top-15
- NC vs Kyle Daukaus8Oct 2, 2021 · Unproven
- L vs Marvin Vettori#675Apr 10, 2021 · Top-15
- L vs Derek Brunson#773Mar 20, 2021 · Top-15
- W vs Jacare Souza#384Dec 12, 2020 · Top-5
- W vs Charlie Ontiveros8Oct 31, 2020 · Unproven
- W vs Darren Stewart30Sep 19, 2020 · Established
- W vs Joaquin Buckley8Aug 8, 2020 · Unproven
- W vs Anthony Hernandez8May 16, 2020 · Unproven
- L vs Brendan Allen8Oct 18, 2019 · Unproven
- W vs Alessio Di Chirico18Jun 22, 2019 · Building
- W vs Gerald Meerschaert18Mar 30, 2019 · Building
- W vs John Phillips8Nov 24, 2018 · Unproven
- L vs Thiago Santos#1363Aug 4, 2018 · Top-15
Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with quality wins (35%). For fighters with limited UFC experience the headline is held toward a rookie baseline — a thin UFC résumé hasn’t yet proven a strong schedule — so debut and low-sample fighters read lower than established names. Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, and falls back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.
Striking matchup
Where each fighter lands their strikes — and where each one gets hit — across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.
Full breakdown — all zones, both views
| Zone | Fighter | Landed / 15 | Accuracy | Absorbed / 15 | Career landed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head | Kevin Holland | 34.6top 30% of division | 39% | 28.0above division average | 702 |
| Head | Jacobe Smith | 73.4elite — top of division | 58% | 29.4around division average | 65 |
| Body | Kevin Holland | 11.9top 28% of division | 67% | 12.2below division average | 242 |
| Body | Jacobe Smith | 16.9top 12% of division | 83% | 9.03above division average | 15 |
| Leg | Kevin Holland | 16.8top 11% of division | 84% | 9.45below division average | 341 |
| Leg | Jacobe Smith | 12.4top 21% of division | 79% | 15.8bottom of the division | 11 |
Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.
Grappling matchup
Wrestling output, ground threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.
Full breakdown — career grappling totals
| Metric | Kevin Holland | Jacobe Smith | Career totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Takedowns landed / 15 | 0.8 | 4.5 | 17 / 4 |
| Takedown accuracy | 40% | 100% | 17/43 · 4/4 |
| Takedown defense | 57% | 100% | stopped 63/111 · 4/4 |
| Submission attempts / 15 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 13 / 1 |
| Control time / 15 (min) | 2.0 min | 7.1 min | 39:42 · 6:15 |
| Time controlled BY opponent / 15 (min) | 4.8 min | 0.0 min | 98:29 · 0:01 |
All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time.
Finishing & durability
How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.
When their fights end
every UFC finish on the fight clockFinish & durability rates
UFC bouts only
Full method breakdown
| Outcome | Kevin Holland | Jacobe Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | ||
| by KO / TKO | 5(31%) | 2(67%) |
| by submission | 6(38%) | 1(33%) |
| by decision | 5(31%) | 0(0%) |
| Losses | ||
| by KO / TKO | 0(0%) | 0 |
| by submission | 3(25%) | 0 |
| by decision | 7(58%) | 0 |
| Pace | ||
| Avg finish time (own wins) | R2 0:56 | R1 4:25 |
| Finishes used in avg | 11 | 3 |
Counts come from the same denormalised win/loss-by-method columns the rest of the site uses. The percentile context on each row is computed against fighters currently assigned to this weight class with at least two resolved UFC bouts.
KO history
UFC fights only — knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head, then when the last finish landed, and on whom.
- Last time KO'dvs Roman Dolidze1y 7mo agoUFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 5, 2024 · R1 · 5:00* injury · not a clean KO
- Last time submittedvs Reinier de Ridder1y 4mo agoUFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025 · R1 · 3:31
- Last time KO'dNever finished by strikes in the UFC
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
Pace & fade
How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.
Holland drops to 78% of round-1 work rate by round 3. Smith hasn't reached the third round in enough UFC bouts to read a fade pattern yet.
Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.
Full per-round breakdown — both fighters
What drives the pace · per round
The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.
| Round | Fighter | Output / min | Sig landed / min | Sig absorbed / min | TD att / min | Control | Bouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kevin Holland | 5.6 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 0.06 | 13% | 28 |
| R1 | Jacobe Smith | 11.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 0.32 | 40% | 3 |
| R2 | Kevin Holland | 5.9 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 0.20 | 14% | 20 |
| R2 | Jacobe Smith | 6.5 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 0.25 | 64% | 1 |
| R3 | Kevin Holland | 4.4 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 0.19 | 13% | 16 |
| R3 | Jacobe Smith | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R4 | Kevin Holland | 2.5 | 1.6 | 3.8 | 0.27 | 4% | 3 |
| R4 | Jacobe Smith | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R5 | Kevin Holland | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.10 | 18% | 2 |
| R5 | Jacobe Smith | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.
Activity & layoff
The recency dimension Tale of the Tape doesn't carry. How active each fighter has been, and how that compares to active peers in their division.