Compare Christian Leroy Duncan vs Khamzat Chimaev — UFC matchup breakdown
Tale of the Tape
The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.
Activity & layoff
The recency dimension Tale of the Tape doesn't carry. How active each fighter has been, and how that compares to active peers in their division.
- Christian is speeding up while opponent slows
Division percentiles below rank both fighters against the Middleweight roster (410 fighters).
Recent form
Last five pro bouts (non-UFC fights dashed + tagged), current trajectory, and the level of opposition going into this matchup.
Schedule Score
Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.
Per-tier records + bout-by-bout
| Tier | Christian Leroy Duncan | Khamzat Chimaev |
|---|---|---|
| Champion | — | 2-1 |
| Top-5 | — | 1-0 |
| Top-15 | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Cross-div champ | — | 1-0 |
| Cross-div ranked | — | 1-0 |
| Established | 1-0 | — |
| Building | 2-1 | 1-0 |
| Unproven | 3-0 | 2-0 |
- W vs Roman Dolidze#1171Mar 21, 2026 · Top-15
- W vs Marco Tulio15Nov 8, 2025 · Building
- W vs Eryk Anders30Aug 9, 2025 · Established
- W vs Andrey Pulyaev8Mar 22, 2025 · Unproven
- L vs Gregory Rodrigues53Jul 27, 2024 · Top-15
- W vs Claudio Ribeiro8Mar 2, 2024 · Unproven
- W vs Denis Tiuliulin8Nov 18, 2023 · Unproven
- L vs Armen Petrosyan18Jun 17, 2023 · Building
- W vs Dusko Todorovic18Mar 18, 2023 · Building
- L vs Sean Strickland#394May 9, 2026 · Champion
- W vs Dricus Du PlessisCHAMP100Aug 16, 2025 · Champion
- W vs Robert Whittaker#394Oct 26, 2024 · Champion
- W vs Kamaru Usman67Oct 21, 2023 · Cross-div champ
- W vs Kevin Holland45Sep 10, 2022 · Cross-div ranked
- W vs Gilbert Burns#289Apr 9, 2022 · Top-5
- W vs Li Jingliang#1167Oct 30, 2021 · Top-15
- W vs Gerald Meerschaert22Sep 19, 2020 · Building
- W vs Rhys McKee8Jul 25, 2020 · Unproven
- W vs John Phillips8Jul 15, 2020 · Unproven
All figures are 0–100 ratings (shown as %), not percentages of anything literal. Schedule strength = the average quality of every UFC opponent faced (win or lose). Win quality = the average quality of the opponents actually beaten. The composite Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with win quality (35%). Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, falling back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. For fighters with limited UFC experience the headline is held toward a rookie baseline, so debut / low-sample fighters read lower than established names. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.
Career splits
Striking matchup
Each fighter's offense mapped against the other's defense — where one attacks meets where the other gets hit, across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.
Evenly matched striking — no clear edge either way.
Where Duncan attacks (green = high volume) vs where Chimaev gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Duncan’s green zones meeting Chimaev’s red zones are the openings.
- Head49%61st195
- Body15%62nd62
- Leg36%96th144
Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes
- Head83%34th245
- Body12%67th35
- Leg5%75th14
Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent
- Standing76%304
- Clinch16%66
- Ground8%31
- Standing90%264
- Clinch4%11
- Ground6%19
Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.
Full breakdown — all zones, both views
| Zone | Fighter | Landed / 15 | Accuracy | Absorbed / 15 | Career landed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head | Christian Leroy Duncan | above division average31.2 | 46% | above division average24.5 | 195 |
| Head | Khamzat Chimaev | top 19% of division40.5 | 51% | below division average35.6 | 301 |
| Body | Christian Leroy Duncan | above division average10.1 | 63% | around division average8.3 | 62 |
| Body | Khamzat Chimaev | above division average9.1 | 56% | above division average6.6 | 58 |
| Leg | Christian Leroy Duncan | elite — top of division18.4 | 86% | below division average9.4 | 144 |
| Leg | Khamzat Chimaev | around division average6.2 | 97% | top 25% of division3.8 | 37 |
Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.
Grappling matchup
Takedowns, submission threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.
Each metric graded on the division — the bar leans toward whoever wins that part of the grappling exchange (longer + greener = a bigger edge).
Chimaev holds a decisive grappling edge (+44).
Full breakdown — career grappling totals
| Metric | Christian Leroy Duncan | Khamzat Chimaev |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns | 0.32 | 5.335 |
| Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted | 17%2 / 12 | 58%35 / 60 |
| Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced | 63%19 / 30 | 88%7 / 8 |
| Submission attempts / 15career attempts | 0.00 | 1.49 |
| Control time / 15 (min)career total | 3.2 min19:11 | 8.5 min55:47 |
| Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total | 4.2 min25:31 | 0.6 min4:00 |
All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time. Accuracy under 8 career attempts is shown raw and ungraded — too small a sample to rate against the division.
Finishing & durability
How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.
When their fights end
every pro finish on the fight clockFinish & durability rates
Full professional career
Full method breakdown
| Outcome | Christian Leroy Duncan | Khamzat Chimaev |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | ||
| by KO / TKO | 10(71%) | 6(40%) |
| by submission | 1(7%) | 6(40%) |
| by decision | 3(21%) | 3(20%) |
| Losses | ||
| by KO / TKO | 0(0%) | 0(0%) |
| by submission | 0(0%) | 0(0%) |
| by decision | 2(100%) | 1(100%) |
Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.
KO history
UFC fights only — knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head, then when the last finish landed, and on whom.
- Last time KO'dNever finished by strikes in the UFC
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
- Last time KO'dNever finished by strikes in the UFC
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
Pace & fade
How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.
No clear cardio edge — Duncan fades (-14% per round through round 3) and Chimaev fades (-13% per round through round 3). Within fights that reached round 3, Duncan keeps 89% of round-1 output by round 3, Chimaev 108%.
Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.
Full per-round breakdown — both fighters
What drives the pace · per round
The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.
| Round | Fighter | Output / min | Sig landed / min | Sig absorbed / min | TD att / min | Control | Bouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Christian Leroy Duncan | 5.5 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.12 | 28% | 9 |
| R1 | Khamzat Chimaev | 9.7 | 4.2 | 0.6 | 0.69 | 86% | 10 |
| R2 | Christian Leroy Duncan | 7.1 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 0.20 | 17% | 7 |
| R2 | Khamzat Chimaev | 5.2 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 0.33 | 32% | 5 |
| R3 | Christian Leroy Duncan | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.05 | 14% | 4 |
| R3 | Khamzat Chimaev | 7.8 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 0.35 | 36% | 4 |
| R4 | Christian Leroy Duncan | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R4 | Khamzat Chimaev | 8.3 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 0.70 | 53% | 2 |
| R5 | Christian Leroy Duncan | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R5 | Khamzat Chimaev | 8.8 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 1.30 | 44% | 2 |
Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.