Compare Johnny Walker vs Paulo Costa — UFC matchup breakdown
Tale of the Tape
The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.
Activity & layoff
The recency dimension Tale of the Tape doesn't carry. How active each fighter has been, and how that compares to active peers in their division.
- Paulo is speeding up while opponent slows
Division percentiles below rank both fighters against the Heavyweight roster (343 fighters). Johnny Walker fights at Heavyweight; Paulo Costa at Light Heavyweight — Paulo Costa’s percentiles are measured against a division they don’t compete in, so read them with that in mind.
Recent form
Last five pro bouts (non-UFC fights dashed + tagged), current trajectory, and the level of opposition going into this matchup.
Schedule Score
Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.
Per-tier records + bout-by-bout
| Tier | Johnny Walker | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Champion | 0-2, 1 NC | 1-3 |
| Top-5 | 2-5 | 1-0 |
| Top-15 | 5-0 | 3-0 |
| Cross-div champ | — | 1-0 |
| Cross-div ranked | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Unproven | — | 2-0 |
- L vs Dominick Reyes#1082Apr 11, 2026 · Top-5
- W vs Zhang Mingyang#1463Aug 23, 2025 · Top-15
- L vs Volkan Oezdemir#981Jun 22, 2024 · Top-5
- L vs Magomed Ankalaev#394Jan 13, 2024 · Champion
- NC vs Magomed Ankalaev#296Oct 21, 2023 · Champion
- W vs Anthony Smith#584May 13, 2023 · Top-5
- W vs Paul Craig#971Jan 21, 2023 · Top-15
- W vs Ion Cutelaba#1560Sep 10, 2022 · Top-15
- L vs Jamahal Hill#1288Feb 19, 2022 · Champion
- L vs Thiago Santos#586Oct 2, 2021 · Top-5
- W vs Ryan Spann#1269Sep 19, 2020 · Top-15
- L vs Nikita Krylov#1373Mar 14, 2020 · Top-5
- L vs Corey Anderson#778Nov 2, 2019 · Top-5
- W vs Misha Cirkunov#1469Mar 2, 2019 · Top-15
- W vs Justin Ledet45Feb 2, 2019 · Cross-div ranked
- W vs Khalil Rountree Jr.59Nov 17, 2018 · Top-5
- W vs Azamat Murzakanov#675Apr 11, 2026 · Top-15
- W vs Roman Kopylov#1462Jul 19, 2025 · Top-15
- L vs Sean Strickland#197Jun 1, 2024 · Champion
- L vs Robert Whittaker#394Feb 17, 2024 · Champion
- W vs Luke Rockhold#394Aug 20, 2022 · Champion
- L vs Marvin Vettori45Oct 23, 2021 · Cross-div ranked
- L vs Israel AdesanyaCHAMP100Sep 26, 2020 · Champion
- W vs Yoel Romero#289Aug 17, 2019 · Top-5
- W vs Uriah Hall#971Jul 7, 2018 · Top-15
- W vs Johny Hendricks67Nov 4, 2017 · Cross-div champ
- W vs Oluwale Bamgbose8Jun 3, 2017 · Unproven
- W vs Garreth McLellan8Mar 11, 2017 · Unproven
All figures are 0–100 ratings (shown as %), not percentages of anything literal. Schedule strength = the average quality of every UFC opponent faced (win or lose). Win quality = the average quality of the opponents actually beaten. The composite Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with win quality (35%). Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, falling back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. For fighters with limited UFC experience the headline is held toward a rookie baseline, so debut / low-sample fighters read lower than established names. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.
Career splits
Striking matchup
Each fighter's offense mapped against the other's defense — where one attacks meets where the other gets hit, across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.
Evenly matched striking — no clear edge either way.
Where Walker attacks (green = high volume) vs where Costa gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Walker’s green zones meeting Costa’s red zones are the openings.
- Head47%44th183
- Body10%43rd39
- Leg43%95th165
Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes
- Head65%13th588
- Body22%11th195
- Leg13%22nd121
Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent
- Standing69%266
- Clinch7%28
- Ground24%93
- Standing92%836
- Clinch6%58
- Ground1%10
Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.
Full breakdown — all zones, both views
| Zone | Fighter | Landed / 15 | Accuracy | Absorbed / 15 | Career landed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head | Johnny Walker | below division average28.0 | 42% | above division average25.6 | 183 |
| Head | Paulo Costa | top 27% of division39.6 | 44% | bottom of the division52.8 | 422 |
| Body | Johnny Walker | below division average6.6 | 49% | around division average9.1 | 39 |
| Body | Paulo Costa | elite — top of division30.9 | 82% | bottom of the division17.0 | 379 |
| Leg | Johnny Walker | elite — top of division18.5 | 77% | well below average11.1 | 165 |
| Leg | Paulo Costa | top 19% of division11.7 | 89% | well below average11.0 | 133 |
Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.
Grappling matchup
Takedowns, submission threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.
Each metric graded on the division — the bar leans toward whoever wins that part of the grappling exchange (longer + greener = a bigger edge).
Evenly matched grappling — no clear edge either way.
Full breakdown — career grappling totals
| Metric | Johnny Walker | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted | 40%2 / 5 | 43%3 / 7 |
| Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced | 53%9 / 17 | 78%21 / 27 |
| Submission attempts / 15career attempts | 0.43 | 0.00 |
| Control time / 15 (min)career total | 1.2 min8:15 | 0.8 min8:24 |
| Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total | 2.6 min18:31 | 0.6 min6:21 |
All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time. Accuracy under 8 career attempts is shown raw and ungraded — too small a sample to rate against the division.
Finishing & durability
How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.
When their fights end
every pro finish on the fight clockFinish & durability rates
Full professional career
Full method breakdown
| Outcome | Johnny Walker | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | ||
| by KO / TKO | 17(77%) | 12(75%) |
| by submission | 3(14%) | 1(6%) |
| by decision | 2(9%) | 3(19%) |
| Losses | ||
| by KO / TKO | 6(60%) | 1(25%) |
| by submission | 1(10%) | 0(0%) |
| by decision | 3(30%) | 3(75%) |
Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.
KO history
UFC fights only — knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head, then when the last finish landed, and on whom.
- Last time KO'dvs Volkan Oezdemir2 years agoUFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · Jun 22, 2024 · R1 · 2:28
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
- Last time KO'dvs Israel Adesanya5y 8mo agoUFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · Sep 26, 2020 · R2 · 3:59
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
Pace & fade
How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.
Cardio edge to Costa: Costa builds (+3% per round through round 5) while Walker fades (-14% per round through round 3). Within fights that reached round 3, Walker drops to 84% of round-1 output by round 3, Costa 94%.
Faded points are drawn from a single bout that reached that round, so they’re less reliable than the solid points averaged over many fights.
Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.
Full per-round breakdown — both fighters
What drives the pace · per round
The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.
| Round | Fighter | Output / min | Sig landed / min | Sig absorbed / min | TD att / min | Control | Bouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Johnny Walker | 4.5 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 0.08 | 10% | 15 |
| R1 | Paulo Costa | 6.4 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 0.04 | 7% | 12 |
| R2 | Johnny Walker | 5.0 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 0.04 | 8% | 6 |
| R2 | Paulo Costa | 6.7 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 0.05 | 3% | 11 |
| R3 | Johnny Walker | 3.3 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 0.00 | 6% | 4 |
| R3 | Paulo Costa | 6.2 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 0.10 | 9% | 7 |
| R4 | Johnny Walker | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.00 | 0% | 1 |
| R4 | Paulo Costa | 5.9 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 0.00 | 0% | 2 |
| R5 | Johnny Walker | 1.6 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 0.00 | 0% | 1 |
| R5 | Paulo Costa | 7.9 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 0.00 | 4% | 2 |
Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.