Compare Julianna Pena vs Mackenzie Dern — UFC matchup breakdown
Tale of the Tape
The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.
Activity & layoff
The recency dimension Tale of the Tape doesn't carry. How active each fighter has been, and how that compares to active peers in their division.
- Julianna has 4 months more layoff
Division percentiles below rank both fighters against the Bantamweight roster (341 fighters). Julianna Pena fights at Bantamweight; Mackenzie Dern at Women's Strawweight — Mackenzie Dern’s percentiles are measured against a division they don’t compete in, so read them with that in mind.
Recent form
Last five pro bouts (non-UFC fights dashed + tagged), current trajectory, and the level of opposition going into this matchup.
Schedule Score
Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.
Per-tier records + bout-by-bout
| Tier | Julianna Pena | Mackenzie Dern |
|---|---|---|
| Champion | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Top-5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Top-15 | 2-0 | 6-1 |
| Unproven | 1-0 | 3-0 |
- L vs Kayla Harrison#297Jun 7, 2025 · Champion
- W vs Raquel PenningtonCHAMP100Oct 5, 2024 · Champion
- L vs Amanda Nunes#199Jul 30, 2022 · Champion
- W vs Amanda NunesCHAMP100Dec 11, 2021 · Champion
- W vs Sara McMann#979Jan 23, 2021 · Top-5
- L vs Germaine de Randamie#195Oct 3, 2020 · Top-5
- W vs Nicco Montano57Jul 13, 2019 · Top-15
- L vs Valentina Shevchenko#195Jan 28, 2017 · Top-5
- W vs Cat Zingano#388Jul 9, 2016 · Top-5
- W vs Jessica Eye#677Oct 3, 2015 · Top-5
- W vs Milana Dudieva8Apr 4, 2015 · Unproven
- W vs Jessica Rakoczy57Nov 30, 2013 · Top-15
- W vs Virna Jandiroba#195Oct 25, 2025 · Top-5
- W vs Amanda Ribas#873Jan 11, 2025 · Top-15
- W vs Loopy Godinez#1073Aug 3, 2024 · Top-15
- L vs Amanda Lemos#387Feb 17, 2024 · Top-5
- L vs Jessica Andrade#592Nov 11, 2023 · Champion
- W vs Angela Hill#1368May 20, 2023 · Top-15
- L vs Yan Xiaonan#688Oct 1, 2022 · Top-5
- W vs Tecia Pennington57Apr 9, 2022 · Top-15
- L vs Marina Rodriguez#684Oct 9, 2021 · Top-5
- W vs Nina Nunes55Apr 10, 2021 · Top-15
- W vs Virna Jandiroba#1384Dec 12, 2020 · Top-5
- W vs Randa Markos#1470Sep 19, 2020 · Top-15
- W vs Hannah Cifers12May 30, 2020 · Unproven
- L vs Amanda Ribas51Oct 12, 2019 · Top-15
- W vs Amanda Cooper12May 12, 2018 · Unproven
- W vs Ashley Yoder8Mar 3, 2018 · Unproven
All figures are 0–100 ratings (shown as %), not percentages of anything literal. Schedule strength = the average quality of every UFC opponent faced (win or lose). Win quality = the average quality of the opponents actually beaten. The composite Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with win quality (35%). Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, falling back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. For fighters with limited UFC experience the headline is held toward a rookie baseline, so debut / low-sample fighters read lower than established names. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.
Career splits
Striking matchup
Each fighter's offense mapped against the other's defense — where one attacks meets where the other gets hit, across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.
Pena has the striking edge (+16).
Where Pena attacks (green = high volume) vs where Dern gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Pena’s green zones meeting Dern’s red zones are the openings.
- Head78%65th387
- Body19%48th92
- Leg3%14th14
Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes
- Head53%51st477
- Body25%23rd226
- Leg21%25th189
Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent
- Standing62%305
- Clinch13%65
- Ground25%123
- Standing81%724
- Clinch14%129
- Ground4%39
Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.
Full breakdown — all zones, both views
| Zone | Fighter | Landed / 15 | Accuracy | Absorbed / 15 | Career landed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head | Julianna Pena | above division average35.4 | 40% | above division average27.4 | 387 |
| Head | Mackenzie Dern | top 28% of division37.9 | 36% | around division average32.4 | 593 |
| Body | Julianna Pena | around division average9.2 | 79% | above division average9.4 | 92 |
| Body | Mackenzie Dern | below division average7.9 | 74% | well below average14.4 | 110 |
| Leg | Julianna Pena | bottom of the division2.8 | 74% | above division average5.8 | 14 |
| Leg | Mackenzie Dern | below division average5.9 | 91% | well below average11.9 | 83 |
Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.
Grappling matchup
Takedowns, submission threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.
Each metric graded on the division — the bar leans toward whoever wins that part of the grappling exchange (longer + greener = a bigger edge).
Pena has the grappling edge (+12).
Full breakdown — career grappling totals
| Metric | Julianna Pena | Mackenzie Dern |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns | 1.718 | 0.914 |
| Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted | 55%18 / 33 | 18%14 / 76 |
| Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced | 24%7 / 29 | 38%11 / 29 |
| Submission attempts / 15career attempts | 0.88 | 1.116 |
| Control time / 15 (min)career total | 4.3 min45:07 | 4.2 min63:41 |
| Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total | 5.2 min54:37 | 2.8 min42:30 |
All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time. Accuracy under 8 career attempts is shown raw and ungraded — too small a sample to rate against the division.
Finishing & durability
How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.
When their fights end
every pro finish on the fight clockFinish & durability rates
Full professional career
Full method breakdown
| Outcome | Julianna Pena | Mackenzie Dern |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | ||
| by KO / TKO | 3(25%) | 0(0%) |
| by submission | 5(42%) | 8(50%) |
| by decision | 4(33%) | 8(50%) |
| Losses | ||
| by KO / TKO | 1(17%) | 1(20%) |
| by submission | 3(50%) | 0(0%) |
| by decision | 2(33%) | 4(80%) |
Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.
KO history
UFC fights only — knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head, then when the last finish landed, and on whom.
- Last time KO'dNever finished by strikes in the UFC
- Last time submittedvs Kayla Harrison1 year agoUFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 7, 2025 · R2 · 4:55
- Last time KO'dvs Jessica Andrade2y 7mo agoUFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · Nov 11, 2023 · R2 · 3:15
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
Pace & fade
How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.
Cardio edge to Dern: Dern builds (+7% per round through round 5) while Pena fades (-16% per round through round 5). Within fights that reached round 3, Pena lifts to 138% of round-1 output by round 3, Dern 109%.
Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.
Full per-round breakdown — both fighters
What drives the pace · per round
The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.
| Round | Fighter | Output / min | Sig landed / min | Sig absorbed / min | TD att / min | Control | Bouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Julianna Pena | 4.9 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 0.20 | 26% | 12 |
| R1 | Mackenzie Dern | 5.6 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 0.29 | 30% | 16 |
| R2 | Julianna Pena | 5.4 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 0.23 | 32% | 10 |
| R2 | Mackenzie Dern | 4.6 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 0.26 | 19% | 12 |
| R3 | Julianna Pena | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.31 | 44% | 7 |
| R3 | Mackenzie Dern | 6.0 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 0.47 | 27% | 11 |
| R4 | Julianna Pena | 2.1 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 0.00 | 3% | 2 |
| R4 | Mackenzie Dern | 6.1 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 0.40 | 25% | 4 |
| R5 | Julianna Pena | 3.1 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 0.00 | 0% | 2 |
| R5 | Mackenzie Dern | 6.8 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 0.30 | 51% | 4 |
Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.