Markets
Prices from Kalshi, a regulated prediction market — each figure is the real-money implied probability that fighter wins, set by live trading. “Books” is the de-vigged sportsbook consensus shown for comparison.
- Nickal73%-325
- Daukaus27%+260
Record when favored vs. an underdog, across the 8priced bouts in each fighter’s history.
Percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.
Career splits
- KO/TKO2
- Submission2
- Decision1
- KO/TKO1
- Submission0
- Decision0
- Average7:45
- vs Orthodox5-0
- vs Southpaw0-1
- vs Switchno data
- vs Longer reach1-1
- vs Shorter reach3-0
8 bouts · vs Nickal

- KO/TKO1
- Submission2
- Decision1
- KO/TKO2
- Submission0
- Decision2
- Average7:34
- vs Orthodox3-3
- vs Southpaw1-1
- vs Switchno data
- vs Longer reach2-1
- vs Shorter reach1-2
Tale of the Tape
The biometric and experience deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.
Finishing & durability
How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.


When their fights end
every UFC finish on the fight clockFull method breakdown
| Outcome | Bo Nickal | Kyle Daukaus |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | ||
| by KO / TKO | 240% | 125% |
| by submission | 240% | 250% |
| by decision | 120% | 125% |
| Losses | ||
| by KO / TKO | 1100% | 250% |
| by submission | 00% | 00% |
| by decision | 00% | 250% |
| Pace | ||
| Avg finish time (own wins) | R2 1:08 | R1 2:10 |
| Finishes used in avg | 4 | 3 |
Counts come from the same denormalised win/loss-by-method columns the rest of the site uses. The percentile context on each row is computed against fighters currently assigned to this weight class with at least two resolved UFC bouts.
KO history
Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head — then when the last finish landed, and on whom.
- Last KO/TKO scoredvs Rodolfo Vieira6 months agoUFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · Nov 15, 2025 · R3 · 2:24
- Last time KO'dvs Reinier de Ridder1 year agoUFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · May 3, 2025 · R2 · 1:53
- Last submission scoredvs Cody Brundage2y 1mo agoUFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024 · R2 · 3:38
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
- Last KO/TKO scoredvs Michel Pereira9 months agoUFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Aug 23, 2025 · R1 · 0:43
- Last time KO'dvs Eryk Anders3y 5mo agoUFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 3, 2022 · R2 · 2:45
- Last submission scoredvs Gerald Meerschaert6 months agoUFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · Nov 15, 2025 · R1 · 0:50
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
Common opponents
The single UFC opponent both fighters have faced. Reads as a directional signal, not a verdict.


Schedule Score
Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.
Per-tier records + bout-by-bout
| Tier | Bo Nickal | Kyle Daukaus |
|---|---|---|
| Top-15 | 1-1 | 1-0, 1 NC |
| Established | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Building | 1-0 | 1-2 |
| Unproven | 2-0 | 1-2 |
- W vs Gerald Meerschaert30Nov 15, 2025 · Established
- W vs Michel Pereira#1462Aug 23, 2025 · Top-15
- L vs Eryk Anders18Dec 3, 2022 · Building
- L vs Roman Dolidze18Jun 18, 2022 · Building
- W vs Jamie Pickett18Feb 19, 2022 · Building
- NC vs Kevin Holland#1462Oct 2, 2021 · Top-15
- L vs Phil Hawes8May 8, 2021 · Unproven
- W vs Dustin Stoltzfus8Nov 21, 2020 · Unproven
- L vs Brendan Allen8Jun 27, 2020 · Unproven
Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with quality wins (35%) and is Bayesian-shrunken toward the UFC median for small samples. Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, and falls back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.
Recent form
Last five UFC bouts, current trajectory, and the level of opposition faced going into this matchup.




Striking matchup
Where each fighter lands their strikes — and where each one gets hit — across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.


Full breakdown — all zones, both views
| Zone | Fighter | Landed / 15 | Accuracy | Absorbed / 15 | Career landed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head | Bo Nickal | 30.7above division average | 53% | 12.9elite — top of division | 95 |
| Head | Kyle Daukaus | 34.0above division average | 43% | 30.7around division average | 137 |
| Body | Bo Nickal | 10.7above division average | 75% | 11.9well below average | 33 |
| Body | Kyle Daukaus | 6.20well below average | 71% | 14.6well below average | 25 |
| Leg | Bo Nickal | 8.72above division average | 87% | 7.43around division average | 27 |
| Leg | Kyle Daukaus | 5.95around division average | 86% | 4.96above division average | 24 |
Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.
Grappling matchup
Wrestling output, ground threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.


Full breakdown — career grappling totals
| Metric | Bo Nickal | Kyle Daukaus | Career totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Takedowns landed / 15 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 7 / 8 |
| Takedown accuracy | 47% | 24% | 7/15 · 8/33 |
| Takedown defense | 100% | 77% | stopped 9/9 · 10/13 |
| Submission attempts / 15 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 5 / 4 |
| Control time / 15 (min) | 4.5 min | 6.4 min | 13:49 · 25:57 |
| Time controlled BY opponent / 15 (min) | 1.0 min | 4.1 min | 3:12 · 16:29 |
All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time.
Pace & fade
How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.
Daukaus actually builds to 112% of round-1 work rate by round 3. Nickal hasn't reached the third round in enough UFC bouts to read a fade pattern yet.
Full per-round breakdown — both fighters
What drives the pace · per round
The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.
| Round | Fighter | Output / min | Sig landed / min | Sig absorbed / min | TD att / min | Control | Bouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bo Nickal | 5.7 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.51 | 43% | 6 |
| R1 | Kyle Daukaus | 6.2 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 0.54 | 47% | 8 |
| R2 | Bo Nickal | 5.8 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 0.13 | 24% | 4 |
| R2 | Kyle Daukaus | 7.5 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 0.85 | 32% | 4 |
| R3 | Bo Nickal | 4.1 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.14 | 0% | 2 |
| R3 | Kyle Daukaus | 5.5 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 0.20 | 48% | 3 |
Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace. See Methods for the full formula.
Activity & layoff
The recency dimension Tale of the Tape doesn't carry. How active each fighter has been, and how that compares to active peers in their division.

