Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia — Featherweight at UFC Freedom 250
- Weight class
- Featherweight
- Rounds
- 3 × 5 min
- Venue
- White House · Washington, D.C.
Markets
Prices from Kalshi, a regulated prediction market — each figure is the real-money implied probability that fighter wins, set by live trading. “Books” is the de-vigged sportsbook consensus shown for comparison.
- Lopes62%-185
- Garcia38%+154
Record when favored vs. an underdog, across the 9priced bouts in each fighter’s history.
Percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.
Career splits
9 bouts · vs Garcia
- KO/TKO3
- Submission1
- Decision2
- KO/TKO0
- Submission0
- Decision3
- Average12:09
- vs Orthodox4-3
- vs Southpaw1-0
- vs Switch1-0
- vs Longer reachno data
- vs Shorter reach5-2
10 bouts · vs Lopes
- KO/TKO7
- Submission0
- Decision1
- KO/TKO1
- Submission0
- Decision1
- Average6:02
- vs Orthodox4-1
- vs Southpaw2-1
- vs Switch2-0
- vs Longer reachno data
- vs Shorter reach7-1
Tale of the Tape
The biometric and experience deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.
Finishing & durability
How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.
When their fights end
every UFC finish on the fight clockFull method breakdown
| Outcome | Diego Lopes | Steve Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | ||
| by KO / TKO | 350% | 788% |
| by submission | 117% | 00% |
| by decision | 233% | 113% |
| Losses | ||
| by KO / TKO | 00% | 150% |
| by submission | 00% | 00% |
| by decision | 3100% | 150% |
| Pace | ||
| Avg finish time (own wins) | R1 3:36 | R1 4:09 |
| Finishes used in avg | 4 | 7 |
Counts come from the same denormalised win/loss-by-method columns the rest of the site uses. The percentile context on each row is computed against fighters currently assigned to this weight class with at least two resolved UFC bouts.
KO history
Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head — then when the last finish landed, and on whom.
- Last KO/TKO scoredvs Jean Silva8 months agoUFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025 · R2 · 4:48
- Last time KO'dNever finished by strikes in the UFC
- Last submission scoredvs Gavin Tucker2y 9mo agoUFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font · Aug 5, 2023 · R1 · 1:38
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
- Last KO/TKO scoredvs David Onama6 months agoUFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · Nov 1, 2025 · R1 · 3:34
- Last time KO'dvs Maheshate3y 11mo agoUFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka · Jun 11, 2022 · R1 · 1:14
- Last submission scoredNo submission wins in the UFC yet
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
Common opponents
UFC opponents both fighters have faced — a direct read on relative quality controlling for matchmaking.
These two fighters haven’t crossed paths in the UFC cage with any of the same opponents.
Schedule Score
Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.
Per-tier records + bout-by-bout
| Tier | Diego Lopes | Steve Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Champion | 0-1 | — |
| Top-5 | 1-1 | — |
| Top-15 | 2-1 | 2-0 |
| Cross-div ranked | 1-0 | — |
| Established | 1-0 | — |
| Building | 1-0 | 4-1 |
| Unproven | — | 2-1 |
- L vs Alexander VolkanovskiCHAMP100Jan 31, 2026 · Champion
- W vs Jean Silva#1068Sep 13, 2025 · Top-15
- L vs Alexander Volkanovski#190Apr 12, 2025 · Top-5
- W vs Brian Ortega#384Sep 14, 2024 · Top-5
- W vs Dan Ige45Jun 29, 2024 · Cross-div ranked
- W vs Sodiq Yusuff#1363Apr 13, 2024 · Top-15
- W vs Pat Sabatini30Nov 11, 2023 · Established
- W vs Gavin Tucker18Aug 5, 2023 · Building
- L vs Movsar Evloev#1068May 6, 2023 · Top-15
- W vs David Onama#1363Nov 1, 2025 · Top-15
- W vs Calvin Kattar#1462Jul 12, 2025 · Top-15
- W vs Kyle Nelson18Sep 7, 2024 · Building
- W vs SeungWoo Choi18Jul 20, 2024 · Building
- W vs Melquizael Costa8Dec 9, 2023 · Unproven
- W vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke18Apr 8, 2023 · Building
- W vs Chase Hooper18Oct 29, 2022 · Building
- L vs Maheshate8Jun 11, 2022 · Unproven
- W vs Charlie Ontiveros8Oct 9, 2021 · Unproven
- L vs Luis Pena18Feb 29, 2020 · Building
Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with quality wins (35%) and is Bayesian-shrunken toward the UFC median for small samples. Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, and falls back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.
Recent form
Last five UFC bouts, current trajectory, and the level of opposition faced going into this matchup.
Striking matchup
Where each fighter lands their strikes — and where each one gets hit — across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.
Full breakdown — all zones, both views
| Zone | Fighter | Landed / 15 | Accuracy | Absorbed / 15 | Career landed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head | Diego Lopes | 42.9top 20% of division | 43% | 54.8bottom of the division | 313 |
| Head | Steve Garcia | 54.9top 9% of division | 42% | 22.1top 17% of division | 221 |
| Body | Diego Lopes | 7.40below division average | 61% | 4.80top 10% of division | 54 |
| Body | Steve Garcia | 11.7above division average | 73% | 2.98elite — top of division | 47 |
| Leg | Diego Lopes | 9.73above division average | 76% | 9.05below division average | 71 |
| Leg | Steve Garcia | 5.96below division average | 89% | 2.98top 12% of division | 24 |
Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.
Grappling matchup
Wrestling output, ground threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.
Full breakdown — career grappling totals
| Metric | Diego Lopes | Steve Garcia | Career totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Takedowns landed / 15 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 7 / 4 |
| Takedown accuracy | 50% | 57% | 7/14 · 4/7 |
| Takedown defense | 74% | 79% | stopped 23/31 · 11/14 |
| Submission attempts / 15 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 8 / 2 |
| Control time / 15 (min) | 1.7 min | 2.6 min | 12:43 · 10:21 |
| Time controlled BY opponent / 15 (min) | 2.1 min | 6.2 min | 15:04 · 24:59 |
All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time.
Pace & fade
How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.
Lopes actually builds to 118% of round-1 work rate by round 3. Garcia hasn't reached the third round in enough UFC bouts to read a fade pattern yet.
Full per-round breakdown — both fighters
What drives the pace · per round
The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.
| Round | Fighter | Output / min | Sig landed / min | Sig absorbed / min | TD att / min | Control | Bouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Diego Lopes | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 0.09 | 16% | 9 |
| R1 | Steve Garcia | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.16 | 21% | 10 |
| R2 | Diego Lopes | 4.6 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 0.13 | 16% | 6 |
| R2 | Steve Garcia | 7.8 | 6.8 | 1.2 | 0.07 | 18% | 5 |
| R3 | Diego Lopes | 4.8 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 0.12 | 6% | 5 |
| R3 | Steve Garcia | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.00 | 1% | 2 |
| R4 | Diego Lopes | 3.8 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 0.00 | 0% | 2 |
| R4 | Steve Garcia | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R5 | Diego Lopes | 3.4 | 1.7 | 6.4 | 0.40 | 12% | 2 |
| R5 | Steve Garcia | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace. See Methods for the full formula.
Activity & layoff
The recency dimension Tale of the Tape doesn't carry. How active each fighter has been, and how that compares to active peers in their division.
- Steve has 2 months more layoff
- Steve is speeding up while opponent slows