Bryce Mitchell vs Luan Santiago — Bantamweight at UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
- Weight class
- Bantamweight
- Rounds
- 3 × 5 min
- Venue
- Meta Apex · Las Vegas, Nevada
Markets
- Mitchell59%-162
- Santiago41%+136
Record when favored vs. an underdog, across the 11priced bouts in each fighter’s history.
Percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.
Career splits
12 bouts · vs Santiago
- KO/TKO1
- Submission1
- Decision7
- KO/TKO1
- Submission2
- Decision0
- Average11:35
- vs Orthodox7-3
- vs Southpaw1-0
- vs Switch1-0
- vs Longer reach4-0
- vs Shorter reach3-2
LS0 bouts · vs Mitchell
- KO/TKO—
- Submission—
- Decision—
- KO/TKO—
- Submission—
- Decision—
- Average—
- vs Orthodoxno data
- vs Southpawno data
- vs Switchno data
- vs Longer reachno data
- vs Shorter reachno data
Tale of the Tape
The biometric and experience deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.
Finishing & durability
How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.
When their fights end
every UFC finish on the fight clockFull method breakdown
| Outcome | Bryce Mitchell | Luan Santiago |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | ||
| by KO / TKO | 111% | 0 |
| by submission | 111% | 0 |
| by decision | 778% | 0 |
| Losses | ||
| by KO / TKO | 133% | 0 |
| by submission | 267% | 0 |
| by decision | 00% | 0 |
| Pace | ||
| Avg finish time (own wins) | R2 2:29 | — |
| Finishes used in avg | 2 | 0 |
Counts come from the same denormalised win/loss-by-method columns the rest of the site uses. The percentile context on each row is computed against fighters currently assigned to this weight class with at least two resolved UFC bouts.
KO history
Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head — then when the last finish landed, and on whom.
- Last KO/TKO scoredvs Kron Gracie1y 5mo agoUFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 7, 2024 · R3 · 0:39
- Last time KO'dvs Josh Emmett2y 5mo agoUFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Dec 16, 2023 · R1 · 1:57
- Last submission scoredvs Matt Sayles6y 5mo agoUFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · Dec 7, 2019 · R1 · 4:20
- Last time submittedvs Jean Silva1y 1mo agoUFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025 · R2 · 3:52
- Last KO/TKO scoredNo KO/TKO wins in the UFC yet
- Last time KO'dNever finished by strikes in the UFC
- Last submission scoredNo submission wins in the UFC yet
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
Common opponents
UFC opponents both fighters have faced — a direct read on relative quality controlling for matchmaking.
These two fighters haven’t crossed paths in the UFC cage with any of the same opponents.
Schedule Score
Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.
Per-tier records + bout-by-bout
| Tier | Bryce Mitchell | Luan Santiago |
|---|---|---|
| Top-15 | 4-2 | — |
| Building | 1-1 | — |
| Unproven | 4-0 | — |
- W vs Said Nurmagomedov#1560Jul 26, 2025 · Top-15
- L vs Jean Silva18Apr 12, 2025 · Building
- W vs Kron Gracie8Dec 7, 2024 · Unproven
- L vs Josh Emmett#675Dec 16, 2023 · Top-15
- W vs Dan Ige#1363Sep 23, 2023 · Top-15
- L vs Ilia Topuria#1462Dec 10, 2022 · Top-15
- W vs Edson Barboza#1068Mar 5, 2022 · Top-15
- W vs Andre Fili#1560Oct 31, 2020 · Top-15
- W vs Charles Rosa18May 9, 2020 · Building
- W vs Matt Sayles8Dec 7, 2019 · Unproven
- W vs Bobby Moffett8Mar 23, 2019 · Unproven
- W vs Tyler Diamond8Jul 6, 2018 · Unproven
Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with quality wins (35%) and is Bayesian-shrunken toward the UFC median for small samples. Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, and falls back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.
Recent form
Last five UFC bouts, current trajectory, and the level of opposition faced going into this matchup.
Striking matchup
Where each fighter lands their strikes — and where each one gets hit — across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.
Full breakdown — all zones, both views
| Zone | Fighter | Landed / 15 | Accuracy | Absorbed / 15 | Career landed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head | Bryce Mitchell | 19.8well below average | 53% | 15.2top 7% of division | 183 |
| Head | Luan Santiago | 0.00bottom of the division | — | 0.00elite — top of division | 0 |
| Body | Bryce Mitchell | 9.71around division average | 65% | 5.72top 15% of division | 90 |
| Body | Luan Santiago | 0.00bottom of the division | — | 0.00elite — top of division | 0 |
| Leg | Bryce Mitchell | 4.53well below average | 88% | 3.13top 12% of division | 42 |
| Leg | Luan Santiago | 0.00bottom of the division | — | 0.00elite — top of division | 0 |
Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.
Grappling matchup
Wrestling output, ground threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.
Full breakdown — career grappling totals
| Metric | Bryce Mitchell | Luan Santiago | Career totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Takedowns landed / 15 | 3.2 | 0.0 | 30 / 0 |
| Takedown accuracy | 36% | — | 30/83 · 0/0 |
| Takedown defense | 33% | — | stopped 4/12 · 0/0 |
| Submission attempts / 15 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 11 / 0 |
| Control time / 15 (min) | 7.9 min | 0.0 min | 72:57 · 0:00 |
| Time controlled BY opponent / 15 (min) | 2.4 min | 0.0 min | 22:16 · 0:00 |
All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time.
Pace & fade
How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.
Mitchell holds 88% of round-1 work rate by round 3. Santiago hasn't reached the third round in enough UFC bouts to read a fade pattern yet.
Not enough shared rounds with per-round data to plot a comparable pace curve — at least one fighter rarely sees the later rounds.
Full per-round breakdown — both fighters
| Round | Fighter | Output / min | Sig landed / min | Sig absorbed / min | TD att / min | Control | Bouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bryce Mitchell | 6.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.55 | 48% | 12 |
| R1 | Luan Santiago | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R2 | Bryce Mitchell | 6.9 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.81 | 52% | 10 |
| R2 | Luan Santiago | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R3 | Bryce Mitchell | 5.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.39 | 61% | 8 |
| R3 | Luan Santiago | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace. See Methods for the full formula.
Activity & layoff
The recency dimension Tale of the Tape doesn't carry. How active each fighter has been, and how that compares to active peers in their division.