Markets
- Steveson93%-2800
- Ellison7%+1300
Percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.
Career splits
0 bouts · vs Ellison

- KO/TKO—
- Submission—
- Decision—
- KO/TKO—
- Submission—
- Decision—
- Average—
- vs Orthodoxno data
- vs Southpawno data
- vs Switchno data
- vs Longer reachno data
- vs Shorter reachno data
1 bout · vs Steveson

- KO/TKO—
- Submission—
- Decision—
- KO/TKO1
- Submission0
- Decision0
- Average1:55
- vs Orthodox0-1
- vs Southpawno data
- vs Switchno data
- vs Longer reach0-1
- vs Shorter reachno data
Tale of the Tape
The biometric and experience deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.
Finishing & durability
How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.

When their fights end
every UFC finish on the fight clockFull method breakdown
| Outcome | Gable Steveson | Elisha Ellison |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | ||
| by KO / TKO | 0 | 0 |
| by submission | 0 | 0 |
| by decision | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | ||
| by KO / TKO | 0 | 1100% |
| by submission | 0 | 00% |
| by decision | 0 | 00% |
| Pace | ||
| Avg finish time (own wins) | — | — |
| Finishes used in avg | 0 | 0 |
Counts come from the same denormalised win/loss-by-method columns the rest of the site uses. The percentile context on each row is computed against fighters currently assigned to this weight class with at least two resolved UFC bouts.
KO history
Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head — then when the last finish landed, and on whom.
- Last KO/TKO scoredNo KO/TKO wins in the UFC yet
- Last time KO'dNever finished by strikes in the UFC
- Last submission scoredNo submission wins in the UFC yet
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
- Last KO/TKO scoredNo KO/TKO wins in the UFC yet
- Last time KO'dvs Brando Pericic8 months agoUFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · Sep 27, 2025 · R1 · 1:55
- Last submission scoredNo submission wins in the UFC yet
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
Common opponents
UFC opponents both fighters have faced — a direct read on relative quality controlling for matchmaking.
These two fighters haven’t crossed paths in the UFC cage with any of the same opponents.
Schedule Score
Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.
Per-tier records + bout-by-bout
| Tier | Gable Steveson | Elisha Ellison |
|---|---|---|
| Unproven | — | 0-1 |
Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with quality wins (35%) and is Bayesian-shrunken toward the UFC median for small samples. Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, and falls back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.
Recent form
Last five UFC bouts, current trajectory, and the level of opposition faced going into this matchup.


Striking matchup
Where each fighter lands their strikes — and where each one gets hit — across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.

Full breakdown — all zones, both views
| Zone | Fighter | Landed / 15 | Accuracy | Absorbed / 15 | Career landed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head | Gable Steveson | 0.00bottom of the division | — | 0.00elite — top of division | 0 |
| Head | Elisha Ellison | 15.7bottom of the division | 25% | 180bottom of the division | 2 |
| Body | Gable Steveson | 0.00bottom of the division | — | 0.00elite — top of division | 0 |
| Body | Elisha Ellison | 7.83around division average | 100% | 15.7well below average | 1 |
| Leg | Gable Steveson | 0.00bottom of the division | — | 0.00elite — top of division | 0 |
| Leg | Elisha Ellison | 0.00bottom of the division | — | 31.3bottom of the division | 0 |
Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.
Grappling matchup
Wrestling output, ground threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.

Full breakdown — career grappling totals
| Metric | Gable Steveson | Elisha Ellison | Career totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Takedowns landed / 15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 / 0 |
| Takedown accuracy | — | 0% | 0/0 · 0/2 |
| Takedown defense | — | — | stopped 0/0 · 0/0 |
| Submission attempts / 15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 / 0 |
| Control time / 15 (min) | 0.0 min | 1.7 min | 0:00 · 0:13 |
| Time controlled BY opponent / 15 (min) | 0.0 min | 3.8 min | 0:00 · 0:29 |
All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time.
Pace & fade
How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.
Neither fighter has reached the third round in enough UFC bouts to read a reliable fade pattern — most of their fights end early. The round-by-round pace below is shown for what rounds there are.
Not enough shared rounds with per-round data to plot a comparable pace curve — at least one fighter rarely sees the later rounds.
Full per-round breakdown — both fighters
| Round | Fighter | Output / min | Sig landed / min | Sig absorbed / min | TD att / min | Control | Bouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gable Steveson | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R1 | Elisha Ellison | 5.1 | 1.6 | 15.1 | 1.04 | 11% | 1 |
Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace. See Methods for the full formula.
Activity & layoff
The recency dimension Tale of the Tape doesn't carry. How active each fighter has been, and how that compares to active peers in their division.
- Gable Steveson’s RAF debut and Colby Covington vs Chris Weidman LIVE stream info, results and more from RAF09bloodyelbow · May 30, 2026
- Gable Steveson will be at an almost 30lb weight disadvantage for his RAF debut against ex-UFC starbloodyelbow · May 30, 2026
- Gable Steveson’s UFC 329 opponent reveals how he plans to spoil the Olympic gold medalist’s debutbloodyelbow · May 29, 2026
- RAF 09 preview: Start time, full card, how to watch Gable Steveson, Arman Tsarukyan and more wrestlebloodyelbow · May 26, 2026
