Brandon Royval vs Lone'er Kavanagh — Flyweight at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
- Weight class
- Flyweight
- Rounds
- 3 × 5 min
- Venue
- T-Mobile Arena · Las Vegas, Nevada
Markets
- Royval37%+160
- Kavanagh63%-192
Record when favored vs. an underdog, across the 12priced bouts in each fighter’s history.
Percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.
Career splits
12 bouts · vs Kavanagh
- KO/TKO1
- Submission3
- Decision3
- KO/TKO2
- Submission1
- Decision2
- Average11:33
- vs Orthodox6-4
- vs Southpaw1-1
- vs Switchno data
- vs Longer reach3-1
- vs Shorter reach2-2
4 bouts · vs Royval
- KO/TKO0
- Submission0
- Decision3
- KO/TKO1
- Submission0
- Decision0
- Average16:09
- vs Orthodox2-0
- vs Southpaw1-0
- vs Switch0-1
- vs Longer reach2-1
- vs Shorter reachno data
Tale of the Tape
The biometric and experience deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.
Finishing & durability
How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.
When their fights end
every UFC finish on the fight clockFull method breakdown
| Outcome | Brandon Royval | Lone'er Kavanagh |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | ||
| by KO / TKO | 114% | 00% |
| by submission | 343% | 00% |
| by decision | 343% | 3100% |
| Losses | ||
| by KO / TKO | 240% | 1100% |
| by submission | 120% | 00% |
| by decision | 240% | 00% |
| Pace | ||
| Avg finish time (own wins) | R1 4:37 | — |
| Finishes used in avg | 4 | 0 |
Counts come from the same denormalised win/loss-by-method columns the rest of the site uses. The percentile context on each row is computed against fighters currently assigned to this weight class with at least two resolved UFC bouts.
KO history
Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head — then when the last finish landed, and on whom.
- Last KO/TKO scoredvs Matheus Nicolau3y 1mo agoUFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · Apr 15, 2023 · R1 · 2:09
- Last time KO'dvs Manel Kape5 months agoUFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · Dec 13, 2025 · R1 · 3:18
- Last submission scoredvs Matt Schnell4 years agoUFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 7, 2022 · R1 · 2:14
- Last time submittedvs Alexandre Pantoja4y 9mo agoUFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · Aug 21, 2021 · R2 · 1:46
- Last KO/TKO scoredvs An Tuan Ho1y 9mo agoDana White's Contender Series 67 · Aug 13, 2024 · R1 · 2:35
- Last time KO'dvs Charles Johnson9 months agoUFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Aug 23, 2025 · R2 · 4:35
- Last submission scoredNo submission wins in the UFC yet
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
Common opponents
The single UFC opponent both fighters have faced. Reads as a directional signal, not a verdict.
Schedule Score
Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.
Per-tier records + bout-by-bout
| Tier | Brandon Royval | Lone'er Kavanagh |
|---|---|---|
| Champion | 0-1 | — |
| Top-5 | 3-2 | 1-0 |
| Top-15 | 4-2 | 0-1 |
| Unproven | — | 2-0 |
- L vs Manel Kape#675Dec 13, 2025 · Top-15
- L vs Joshua Van#1462Jun 28, 2025 · Top-15
- W vs Tatsuro Taira#578Oct 12, 2024 · Top-5
- W vs Brandon Moreno#190Feb 24, 2024 · Top-5
- L vs Alexandre PantojaCHAMP100Dec 16, 2023 · Champion
- W vs Matheus Nicolau#578Apr 15, 2023 · Top-5
- W vs Matt Schnell#970May 7, 2022 · Top-15
- W vs Rogerio Bontorin#773Jan 15, 2022 · Top-15
- L vs Alexandre Pantoja#384Aug 21, 2021 · Top-5
- L vs Brandon Moreno#287Nov 21, 2020 · Top-5
- W vs Kai Kara-France#773Sep 26, 2020 · Top-15
- W vs Tim Elliott#1167May 30, 2020 · Top-15
Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with quality wins (35%) and is Bayesian-shrunken toward the UFC median for small samples. Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, and falls back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.
Recent form
Last five UFC bouts, current trajectory, and the level of opposition faced going into this matchup.
Striking matchup
Where each fighter lands their strikes — and where each one gets hit — across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.
Full breakdown — all zones, both views
| Zone | Fighter | Landed / 15 | Accuracy | Absorbed / 15 | Career landed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head | Brandon Royval | 64.4elite — top of division | 37% | 37.7below division average | 595 |
| Head | Lone'er Kavanagh | 35.5above division average | 39% | 25.5above division average | 153 |
| Body | Brandon Royval | 12.9above division average | 70% | 13.1below division average | 119 |
| Body | Lone'er Kavanagh | 14.4top 22% of division | 67% | 9.99above division average | 62 |
| Leg | Brandon Royval | 5.85below division average | 68% | 13.0well below average | 54 |
| Leg | Lone'er Kavanagh | 11.6top 24% of division | 75% | 16.5bottom of the division | 50 |
Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.
Grappling matchup
Wrestling output, ground threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.
Full breakdown — career grappling totals
| Metric | Brandon Royval | Lone'er Kavanagh | Career totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Takedowns landed / 15 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 6 / 5 |
| Takedown accuracy | 75% | 45% | 6/8 · 5/11 |
| Takedown defense | 45% | 94% | stopped 28/62 · 16/17 |
| Submission attempts / 15 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 10 / 1 |
| Control time / 15 (min) | 1.0 min | 1.7 min | 9:31 · 7:32 |
| Time controlled BY opponent / 15 (min) | 5.5 min | 2.2 min | 51:10 · 9:24 |
All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time.
Pace & fade
How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.
Cardio edge to Royval: Royval actually builds to 250% of round-1 work rate through round 3, while Kavanagh actually builds to 124% — a 126-point gap in late-round pace.
Full per-round breakdown — both fighters
What drives the pace · per round
The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.
| Round | Fighter | Output / min | Sig landed / min | Sig absorbed / min | TD att / min | Control | Bouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Brandon Royval | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 0.04 | 5% | 12 |
| R1 | Lone'er Kavanagh | 4.4 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 0.00 | 3% | 4 |
| R2 | Brandon Royval | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 0.00 | 5% | 8 |
| R2 | Lone'er Kavanagh | 7.7 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 0.36 | 23% | 4 |
| R3 | Brandon Royval | 9.3 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 0.16 | 11% | 5 |
| R3 | Lone'er Kavanagh | 4.3 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 0.20 | 15% | 3 |
| R4 | Brandon Royval | 4.6 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 0.07 | 7% | 3 |
| R4 | Lone'er Kavanagh | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 0.00 | 0% | 1 |
| R5 | Brandon Royval | 9.9 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 0.07 | 11% | 3 |
| R5 | Lone'er Kavanagh | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 0.20 | 0% | 1 |
Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace. See Methods for the full formula.
Activity & layoff
The recency dimension Tale of the Tape doesn't carry. How active each fighter has been, and how that compares to active peers in their division.