Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos — Women's Bantamweight at UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi
- Weight class
- Women's Bantamweight
- Rounds
- 3 × 5 min
- Venue
- Meta Apex · Las Vegas, Nevada
Markets
Record when favored vs. an underdog, across the 10priced bouts in each fighter’s history.
Career splits
12 bouts · vs Santos
- KO/TKO0
- Submission0
- Decision8
- KO/TKO0
- Submission0
- Decision4
- Average15:00
- vs Orthodox8-3
- vs Southpawno data
- vs Switch0-1
- vs Longer reachno data
- vs Shorter reachno data
6 bouts · vs Rosa
- KO/TKO1
- Submission2
- Decision2
- KO/TKO0
- Submission0
- Decision1
- Average10:21
- vs Orthodox4-1
- vs Southpaw1-0
- vs Switchno data
- vs Longer reach3-1
- vs Shorter reach1-0
Tale of the Tape
The biometric and experience deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.
Finishing & durability
How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.
When their fights end
every UFC finish on the fight clockFull method breakdown
| Outcome | Karol Rosa | Luana Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | ||
| by KO / TKO | 00% | 120% |
| by submission | 00% | 240% |
| by decision | 8100% | 240% |
| Losses | ||
| by KO / TKO | 00% | 00% |
| by submission | 00% | 00% |
| by decision | 4100% | 1100% |
| Pace | ||
| Avg finish time (own wins) | — | R2 0:42 |
| Finishes used in avg | 0 | 3 |
Counts come from the same denormalised win/loss-by-method columns the rest of the site uses. The percentile context on each row is computed against fighters currently assigned to this weight class with at least two resolved UFC bouts.
KO history
Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head — then when the last finish landed, and on whom.
- Last KO/TKO scoredNo KO/TKO wins in the UFC yet
- Last time KO'dNever finished by strikes in the UFC
- Last submission scoredNo submission wins in the UFC yet
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
- Last KO/TKO scoredvs Juliana Miller2y 9mo agoUFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023 · R1 · 3:41
- Last time KO'dNever finished by strikes in the UFC
- Last submission scoredvs Tainara Lisboa1 year agoUFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025 · R2 · 4:59
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
Common opponents
UFC opponents both fighters have faced — a direct read on relative quality controlling for matchmaking.
These two fighters haven’t crossed paths in the UFC cage with any of the same opponents.
Schedule Score
Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.
Per-tier records + bout-by-bout
| Tier | Karol Rosa | Luana Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Top-5 | 0-1 | — |
| Top-15 | 4-2 | 0-1 |
| Cross-div ranked | 1-1 | — |
| Building | — | 2-0 |
| Unproven | 3-0 | 3-0 |
- W vs Nora Cornolle#1265Aug 2, 2025 · Top-15
- L vs Ailin Perez#1363Jan 18, 2025 · Top-15
- W vs Pannie Kianzad#1167Aug 10, 2024 · Top-15
- L vs Irene Aldana#578Dec 16, 2023 · Top-5
- W vs Yana Santos45Jul 1, 2023 · Cross-div ranked
- L vs Norma Dumont45Apr 22, 2023 · Cross-div ranked
- W vs Lina Lansberg#1363Oct 22, 2022 · Top-15
- L vs Sara McMann#970Mar 26, 2022 · Top-15
- W vs Bethe Correia#1363Oct 2, 2021 · Top-15
- W vs Joselyne Edwards8Feb 6, 2021 · Unproven
- W vs Vanessa Melo8Jul 11, 2020 · Unproven
- W vs Lara Procopio8Aug 31, 2019 · Unproven
Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with quality wins (35%) and is Bayesian-shrunken toward the UFC median for small samples. Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, and falls back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.
Recent form
Last five UFC bouts, current trajectory, and the level of opposition faced going into this matchup.
Striking matchup
Where each fighter lands their strikes — and where each one gets hit — across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.
Full breakdown — all zones, both views
| Zone | Fighter | Landed / 15 | Accuracy | Absorbed / 15 | Career landed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head | Karol Rosa | 51.6top 15% of division | 46% | 39.4below division average | 619 |
| Head | Luana Santos | 26.3below division average | 43% | 28.7above division average | 109 |
| Body | Karol Rosa | 11.3around division average | 80% | 16.0well below average | 135 |
| Body | Luana Santos | 13.0above division average | 74% | 10.1around division average | 54 |
| Leg | Karol Rosa | 25.4elite — top of division | 81% | 13.4well below average | 305 |
| Leg | Luana Santos | 5.55below division average | 85% | 5.07top 29% of division | 23 |
Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.
Grappling matchup
Wrestling output, ground threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.
Full breakdown — career grappling totals
| Metric | Karol Rosa | Luana Santos | Career totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Takedowns landed / 15 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 14 / 9 |
| Takedown accuracy | 48% | 47% | 14/29 · 9/19 |
| Takedown defense | 70% | 86% | stopped 19/27 · 6/7 |
| Submission attempts / 15 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 2 / 5 |
| Control time / 15 (min) | 4.4 min | 7.3 min | 52:20 · 30:12 |
| Time controlled BY opponent / 15 (min) | 2.2 min | 1.1 min | 26:47 · 4:40 |
All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time.
Pace & fade
How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.
Cardio edge to Rosa: Rosa actually builds to 148% of round-1 work rate through round 3, while Santos drops to 69% — a 79-point gap in late-round pace.
Full per-round breakdown — both fighters
What drives the pace · per round
The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.
| Round | Fighter | Output / min | Sig landed / min | Sig absorbed / min | TD att / min | Control | Bouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Karol Rosa | 6.0 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 0.10 | 18% | 12 |
| R1 | Luana Santos | 6.9 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 0.22 | 45% | 6 |
| R2 | Karol Rosa | 7.7 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 0.10 | 34% | 12 |
| R2 | Luana Santos | 6.0 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 0.45 | 57% | 4 |
| R3 | Karol Rosa | 8.9 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 0.28 | 36% | 12 |
| R3 | Luana Santos | 3.7 | 1.2 | 3.3 | 0.27 | 43% | 3 |
Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace. See Methods for the full formula.
Activity & layoff
The recency dimension Tale of the Tape doesn't carry. How active each fighter has been, and how that compares to active peers in their division.
- Karol has 4 months more layoff