Marcus McGhee vs John Yannis — Bantamweight at UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
- Weight class
- Bantamweight
- Rounds
- 3 × 5 min
- Venue
- Meta APEX · Las Vegas, Nevada
Matchup read
Where each fighter holds an advantage in this matchup — offense weighed against the opponent's defense. Tap any row to see the numbers behind it. Descriptive — not a prediction.
StrikingEven
Even striking exchange (thin sample)
GrapplingEven
Wrestling stays neutral (thin sample)
SubmissionClear edge · McGhee
McGhee is the bigger submission threat — reduced by the defense of Yannis (thin sample)
FinishingClear edge · McGhee
McGhee is more likely to finish Yannis (thin sample)
PaceClear edge · McGhee
Tale of the tapeEven
McGhee 3 cm · Yannis 5y younger
Each edge weighs one fighter’s offense against the other’s defense in this matchup, not each fighter vs the division in isolation — so a strong defense reduces (not erases) the opposing threat. Tap a row for the percentiles behind it. Thin samples are dimmed; too little data reads “not enough data.”
Markets
Consensus averages Kalshi’s real-money price with the sportsbook’s vig-free probability. “Best price” is the cheaper cost to back a fighter — lower = better value.
- Over44%+111
- Under56%-145
- Yes39%+138
- No61%-186
Percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.
Record when favored vs. an underdog, across each fighter’s priced UFC bouts.
Career splits
Tale of the Tape
The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.
Recent form
Last five pro bouts (non-UFC fights dashed + tagged), current trajectory, and the level of opposition going into this matchup.
Common opponents
UFC opponents both fighters have faced — a direct read on relative quality controlling for matchmaking.
These two fighters haven’t crossed paths in the UFC cage with any of the same opponents.
Schedule Score
Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.
Based on opponents’ full career pro records (Sherdog, amateur bouts excluded) — a descriptive read of the non-UFC slate, not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.
Based on opponents’ full career pro records (Sherdog, amateur bouts excluded) — a descriptive read of the non-UFC slate, not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.
Per-tier records + bout-by-bout
| Tier | Marcus McGhee | John Yannis |
|---|---|---|
| Top-5 | 0-1 | — |
| Top-15 | 1-0 | — |
| Unproven | 3-0 | 1-1 |
Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with quality wins (35%). For fighters with limited UFC experience the headline is held toward a rookie baseline — a thin UFC résumé hasn’t yet proven a strong schedule — so debut and low-sample fighters read lower than established names. Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, and falls back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.
Striking matchup
Where each fighter lands their strikes — and where each one gets hit — across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.
Full breakdown — all zones, both views
| Zone | Fighter | Landed / 15 | Accuracy | Absorbed / 15 | Career landed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head | Marcus McGhee | 56.7top 7% of division | 39% | 34.2around division average | 181 |
| Head | John Yannis | 28.3around division average | 43% | 14.1top 6% of division | 12 |
| Body | Marcus McGhee | 13.2top 30% of division | 66% | 7.84top 28% of division | 42 |
| Body | John Yannis | 18.8top 12% of division | 89% | 4.71top 11% of division | 8 |
| Leg | Marcus McGhee | 12.5top 18% of division | 68% | 12.5well below average | 40 |
| Leg | John Yannis | 2.36bottom of the division | 50% | 0.00elite — top of division | 1 |
Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.
Grappling matchup
Wrestling output, ground threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.
Full breakdown — career grappling totals
| Metric | Marcus McGhee | John Yannis | Career totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Takedowns landed / 15 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1 / 0 |
| Takedown accuracy | 14% | — | 1/7 · 0/0 |
| Takedown defense | 90% | 67% | stopped 9/10 · 2/3 |
| Submission attempts / 15 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1 / 0 |
| Control time / 15 (min) | 0.9 min | 0.4 min | 2:53 · 0:09 |
| Time controlled BY opponent / 15 (min) | 1.6 min | 6.8 min | 5:15 · 2:53 |
All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time.
Finishing & durability
How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.
When their fights end
every UFC finish on the fight clockFinish & durability rates
UFC bouts only
Full method breakdown
| Outcome | Marcus McGhee | John Yannis |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | ||
| by KO / TKO | 2(50%) | 1(100%) |
| by submission | 1(25%) | 0(0%) |
| by decision | 1(25%) | 0(0%) |
| Losses | ||
| by KO / TKO | 0(0%) | 0(0%) |
| by submission | 0(0%) | 1(100%) |
| by decision | 1(100%) | 0(0%) |
| Pace | ||
| Avg finish time (own wins) | R2 0:57 | R1 2:43 |
| Finishes used in avg | 3 | 1 |
Counts come from the same denormalised win/loss-by-method columns the rest of the site uses. The percentile context on each row is computed against fighters currently assigned to this weight class with at least two resolved UFC bouts.
KO history
UFC fights only — knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head, then when the last finish landed, and on whom.
- Last time KO'dNever finished by strikes in the UFC
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
- Last time KO'dNever finished by strikes in the UFC
- Last time submittedvs Austin Bashi10 months agoUFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · Aug 2, 2025 · R1 · 3:39
Pace & fade
How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.
McGhee drops to 76% of round-1 work rate by round 3. Yannis hasn't reached the third round in enough UFC bouts to read a fade pattern yet.
Not enough shared rounds with per-round data to plot a comparable pace curve — at least one fighter rarely sees the later rounds.
Full per-round breakdown — both fighters
| Round | Fighter | Output / min | Sig landed / min | Sig absorbed / min | TD att / min | Control | Bouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Marcus McGhee | 5.9 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.13 | 8% | 5 |
| R1 | John Yannis | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.00 | 2% | 2 |
| R2 | Marcus McGhee | 7.8 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 0.13 | 5% | 4 |
| R2 | John Yannis | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R3 | Marcus McGhee | 4.2 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 0.20 | 3% | 2 |
| R3 | John Yannis | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.
Activity & layoff
The recency dimension Tale of the Tape doesn't carry. How active each fighter has been, and how that compares to active peers in their division.
- Marcus has 8 months more layoff