Fares Ziam vs Tom Nolan — Lightweight at UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Rounds
- 3 × 5 min
- Venue
- Meta Apex · Las Vegas, Nevada
Markets
- Ziam72%-305
- Nolan28%+240
Record when favored vs. an underdog, across the 10priced bouts in each fighter’s history.
Percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.
Career splits
10 bouts · vs Nolan
- KO/TKO2
- Submission0
- Decision6
- KO/TKO0
- Submission1
- Decision1
- Average13:01
- vs Orthodox6-0
- vs Southpaw2-1
- vs Switch0-1
- vs Longer reach1-0
- vs Shorter reach5-1
Tale of the Tape
The biometric and experience deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.
Finishing & durability
How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.
When their fights end
every UFC finish on the fight clockFull method breakdown
| Outcome | Fares Ziam | Tom Nolan |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | ||
| by KO / TKO | 225% | 125% |
| by submission | 00% | 125% |
| by decision | 675% | 250% |
| Losses | ||
| by KO / TKO | 00% | 1100% |
| by submission | 150% | 00% |
| by decision | 150% | 00% |
| Pace | ||
| Avg finish time (own wins) | R3 1:29 | R1 3:59 |
| Finishes used in avg | 2 | 2 |
Counts come from the same denormalised win/loss-by-method columns the rest of the site uses. The percentile context on each row is computed against fighters currently assigned to this weight class with at least two resolved UFC bouts.
KO history
Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head — then when the last finish landed, and on whom.
- Last KO/TKO scoredvs Nazim Sadykhov5 months agoUFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · Dec 6, 2025 · R2 · 4:59
- Last time KO'dNever finished by strikes in the UFC
- Last submission scoredNo submission wins in the UFC yet
- Last time submittedvs Terrance McKinney4y 3mo agoUFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · Feb 26, 2022 · R1 · 2:11
- Last KO/TKO scoredvs Victor Martinez2 years agoUFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · May 18, 2024 · R1 · 3:50
- Last time KO'dvs Nikolas Motta2y 4mo agoUFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Jan 13, 2024 · R1 · 1:03
- Last submission scoredvs Charlie Campbell8 months agoUFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · Sep 27, 2025 · R1 · 4:08
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
Common opponents
UFC opponents both fighters have faced — a direct read on relative quality controlling for matchmaking.
These two fighters haven’t crossed paths in the UFC cage with any of the same opponents.
Schedule Score
Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.
Per-tier records + bout-by-bout
| Tier | Fares Ziam | Tom Nolan |
|---|---|---|
| Top-15 | 1-0 | — |
| Established | 1-0 | — |
| Building | 3-0 | 1-0 |
| Unproven | 3-2 | 3-1 |
- W vs Nazim Sadykhov18Dec 6, 2025 · Building
- W vs Mike Davis18Feb 1, 2025 · Building
- W vs Matt Frevola#1462Sep 28, 2024 · Top-15
- W vs Claudio Puelles30Feb 24, 2024 · Established
- W vs Jai Herbert18Jul 22, 2023 · Building
- W vs Michal Figlak8Sep 3, 2022 · Unproven
- L vs Terrance McKinney8Feb 26, 2022 · Unproven
- W vs Luigi Vendramini8Jun 12, 2021 · Unproven
- W vs Jamie Mullarkey8Oct 17, 2020 · Unproven
- L vs Don Madge8Sep 7, 2019 · Unproven
Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with quality wins (35%) and is Bayesian-shrunken toward the UFC median for small samples. Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, and falls back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.
Recent form
Last five UFC bouts, current trajectory, and the level of opposition faced going into this matchup.
Striking matchup
Where each fighter lands their strikes — and where each one gets hit — across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.
Full breakdown — all zones, both views
| Zone | Fighter | Landed / 15 | Accuracy | Absorbed / 15 | Career landed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head | Fares Ziam | 28.1around division average | 43% | 9.34elite — top of division | 244 |
| Head | Tom Nolan | 44.2top 17% of division | 35% | 31.5around division average | 115 |
| Body | Fares Ziam | 7.95below division average | 86% | 7.72above division average | 69 |
| Body | Tom Nolan | 26.9elite — top of division | 60% | 21.9bottom of the division | 70 |
| Leg | Fares Ziam | 6.92around division average | 91% | 5.88above division average | 60 |
| Leg | Tom Nolan | 15.0top 15% of division | 76% | 19.2bottom of the division | 39 |
Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.
Grappling matchup
Wrestling output, ground threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.
Full breakdown — career grappling totals
| Metric | Fares Ziam | Tom Nolan | Career totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Takedowns landed / 15 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 15 / 2 |
| Takedown accuracy | 41% | 22% | 15/37 · 2/9 |
| Takedown defense | 71% | 71% | stopped 47/66 · 5/7 |
| Submission attempts / 15 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 4 / 5 |
| Control time / 15 (min) | 4.0 min | 1.1 min | 34:23 · 2:59 |
| Time controlled BY opponent / 15 (min) | 4.9 min | 3.3 min | 42:09 · 8:42 |
All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time.
Pace & fade
How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.
Ziam holds 92% of round-1 work rate by round 3. Nolan hasn't reached the third round in enough UFC bouts to read a fade pattern yet.
Full per-round breakdown — both fighters
What drives the pace · per round
The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.
| Round | Fighter | Output / min | Sig landed / min | Sig absorbed / min | TD att / min | Control | Bouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fares Ziam | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.25 | 26% | 10 |
| R1 | Tom Nolan | 7.4 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 0.21 | 11% | 5 |
| R2 | Fares Ziam | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.24 | 26% | 9 |
| R2 | Tom Nolan | 6.6 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 0.20 | 6% | 2 |
| R3 | Fares Ziam | 4.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.37 | 27% | 8 |
| R3 | Tom Nolan | 5.5 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 0.30 | 4% | 2 |
Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace. See Methods for the full formula.
Activity & layoff
The recency dimension Tale of the Tape doesn't carry. How active each fighter has been, and how that compares to active peers in their division.