Matt Schnell vs Alessandro Costa — Catchweight at UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
- Weight class
- Catchweight
- Rounds
- 3 × 5 min
- Venue
- Meta APEX · Las Vegas, Nevada
Matchup read
Where each fighter holds an advantage in this matchup — offense weighed against the opponent's defense. Tap any row to see the numbers behind it. Descriptive — not a prediction.
StrikingNot enough data
Not enough data
GrapplingNot enough data
Not enough data
SubmissionNot enough data
Not enough data
FinishingNot enough data
Not enough data
PaceSlight edge · Costa
Tale of the tapeSlight edge · Schnell
Schnell 3" reach · Schnell 8 cm · Costa 6y younger
Each edge weighs one fighter’s offense against the other’s defense in this matchup, not each fighter vs the division in isolation — so a strong defense reduces (not erases) the opposing threat. Tap a row for the percentiles behind it. Thin samples are dimmed; too little data reads “not enough data.”
Markets
Consensus averages Kalshi’s real-money price with the sportsbook’s vig-free probability. “Best price” is the cheaper cost to back a fighter — lower = better value.
- Over25%+275
- Under75%-420
- Yes19%+400
- No81%-625
Percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.
Record when favored vs. an underdog, across each fighter’s priced UFC bouts.
Career splits
Tale of the Tape
The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.
Recent form
Last five pro bouts (non-UFC fights dashed + tagged), current trajectory, and the level of opposition going into this matchup.
Common opponents
Every UFC opponent both fighters have faced — a direct comparison controlling for matchmaking.
Schedule Score
Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.
Per-tier records + bout-by-bout
| Tier | Matt Schnell | Alessandro Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Top-5 | 0-1 | — |
| Top-15 | 3-4 | 0-2 |
| Cross-div ranked | 1-1, 1 NC | — |
| Building | 2-1 | — |
| Unproven | 1-1 | 3-1 |
- L vs Joseph Morales#1560Nov 8, 2025 · Top-15
- W vs Jimmy Flick18Apr 26, 2025 · Building
- L vs Cody Durden45Sep 7, 2024 · Cross-div ranked
- L vs Steve Erceg#1265Mar 2, 2024 · Top-15
- L vs Matheus Nicolau#675Dec 3, 2022 · Top-15
- W vs Sumudaerji#1167Jul 16, 2022 · Top-15
- L vs Brandon Royval#675May 7, 2022 · Top-15
- NC vs Rogerio Bontorin45May 15, 2021 · Cross-div ranked
- W vs Tyson Nam#1363Jan 20, 2021 · Top-15
- L vs Alexandre Pantoja#481Dec 21, 2019 · Top-5
- W vs Jordan Espinosa#872Aug 3, 2019 · Top-15
- W vs Louis Smolka45Mar 9, 2019 · Cross-div ranked
- W vs Naoki Inoue8Jun 23, 2018 · Unproven
- W vs Marco Beltran18Oct 7, 2017 · Building
- L vs Hector Sandoval8Apr 22, 2017 · Unproven
- L vs Rob Font18Dec 3, 2016 · Building
Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with quality wins (35%). For fighters with limited UFC experience the headline is held toward a rookie baseline — a thin UFC résumé hasn’t yet proven a strong schedule — so debut and low-sample fighters read lower than established names. Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, and falls back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.
Striking matchup
Where each fighter lands their strikes — and where each one gets hit — across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.
Full breakdown — all zones, both views
| Zone | Fighter | Landed / 15 | Accuracy | Absorbed / 15 | Career landed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head | Matt Schnell | 44.9 | 34% | 42.0 | 327 |
| Head | Alessandro Costa | 34.4 | 39% | 35.2 | 139 |
| Body | Matt Schnell | 6.04 | 57% | 8.37 | 44 |
| Body | Alessandro Costa | 11.4 | 70% | 14.4 | 46 |
| Leg | Matt Schnell | 9.60 | 78% | 9.88 | 70 |
| Leg | Alessandro Costa | 12.9 | 73% | 7.93 | 52 |
Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.
Grappling matchup
Wrestling output, ground threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.
Full breakdown — career grappling totals
| Metric | Matt Schnell | Alessandro Costa | Career totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Takedowns landed / 15 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 5 / 4 |
| Takedown accuracy | 45% | 27% | 5/11 · 4/15 |
| Takedown defense | 45% | 84% | stopped 10/22 · 21/25 |
| Submission attempts / 15 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 10 / 2 |
| Control time / 15 (min) | 1.2 min | 1.4 min | 8:32 · 5:29 |
| Time controlled BY opponent / 15 (min) | 2.7 min | 4.0 min | 19:57 · 16:01 |
All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time.
Finishing & durability
How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.
When their fights end
every UFC finish on the fight clockFinish & durability rates
UFC bouts only
Full method breakdown
| Outcome | Matt Schnell | Alessandro Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | ||
| by KO / TKO | 0(0%) | 3(100%) |
| by submission | 3(43%) | 0(0%) |
| by decision | 4(57%) | 0(0%) |
| Losses | ||
| by KO / TKO | 5(63%) | 2(67%) |
| by submission | 3(38%) | 0(0%) |
| by decision | 0(0%) | 1(33%) |
| Pace | ||
| Avg finish time (own wins) | R1 4:41 | R2 2:31 |
| Finishes used in avg | 3 | 3 |
Counts come from the same denormalised win/loss-by-method columns the rest of the site uses. The percentile context on each row is computed against fighters currently assigned to this weight class with at least two resolved UFC bouts.
KO history
UFC fights only — knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head, then when the last finish landed, and on whom.
- Last time KO'dvs Steve Erceg2y 3mo agoUFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · Mar 2, 2024 · R2 · 0:26
- Last time submittedvs Joseph Morales6 months agoUFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · Nov 8, 2025 · R1 · 2:54
- Last time KO'dvs Alden Coria8 months agoUFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025 · R3 · 0:47
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
Pace & fade
How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.
Cardio edge to Schnell: Schnell actually builds to 140% of round-1 work rate through round 3, while Costa actually builds to 119% — a 21-point gap in late-round pace.
Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.
Full per-round breakdown — both fighters
What drives the pace · per round
The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.
| Round | Fighter | Output / min | Sig landed / min | Sig absorbed / min | TD att / min | Control | Bouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Matt Schnell | 4.3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 0.10 | 6% | 15 |
| R1 | Alessandro Costa | 4.8 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 0.17 | 2% | 6 |
| R2 | Matt Schnell | 5.3 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 0.11 | 8% | 8 |
| R2 | Alessandro Costa | 5.8 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 0.31 | 21% | 6 |
| R3 | Matt Schnell | 4.8 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 0.10 | 13% | 4 |
| R3 | Alessandro Costa | 3.7 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 0.38 | 3% | 3 |
Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.
Activity & layoff
The recency dimension Tale of the Tape doesn't carry. How active each fighter has been, and how that compares to active peers in their division.
- Matt has 4 months more layoff
- Matt Schnell gets new opponent 9 days ahead of UFC Vegas 118mmafighting · May 28, 2026
- Justin Gaethje admits he’s more dangerous after a loss than a win when reflecting on past setbacksbloodyelbow · May 23, 2026
- Max Holloway insists Conor McGregor is ‘still dangerous’ ahead of UFC 329 comebackbloodyelbow · May 22, 2026