Compare Bogdan Guskov vs Paulo Costa — UFC matchup breakdown
Tale of the Tape
The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.
Activity & layoff
The recency dimension Tale of the Tape doesn't carry. How active each fighter has been, and how that compares to active peers in their division.
- Bogdan has 4 months more layoff
Division percentiles below rank both fighters against the Light Heavyweight roster (264 fighters).
Recent form
Last five pro bouts (non-UFC fights dashed + tagged), current trajectory, and the level of opposition going into this matchup.
Schedule Score
Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.
Per-tier records + bout-by-bout
| Tier | Bogdan Guskov | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Champion | 0-0-1 | 1-3 |
| Top-5 | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Top-15 | 1-0 | 3-0 |
| Cross-div champ | — | 1-0 |
| Cross-div ranked | — | 0-1 |
| Building | 1-0 | — |
| Unproven | 1-0 | 2-0 |
- W vs Azamat Murzakanov#675Apr 11, 2026 · Top-15
- W vs Roman Kopylov#1462Jul 19, 2025 · Top-15
- L vs Sean Strickland#197Jun 1, 2024 · Champion
- L vs Robert Whittaker#394Feb 17, 2024 · Champion
- W vs Luke Rockhold#394Aug 20, 2022 · Champion
- L vs Marvin Vettori45Oct 23, 2021 · Cross-div ranked
- L vs Israel AdesanyaCHAMP100Sep 26, 2020 · Champion
- W vs Yoel Romero#289Aug 17, 2019 · Top-5
- W vs Uriah Hall#971Jul 7, 2018 · Top-15
- W vs Johny Hendricks67Nov 4, 2017 · Cross-div champ
- W vs Oluwale Bamgbose8Jun 3, 2017 · Unproven
- W vs Garreth McLellan8Mar 11, 2017 · Unproven
All figures are 0–100 ratings (shown as %), not percentages of anything literal. Schedule strength = the average quality of every UFC opponent faced (win or lose). Win quality = the average quality of the opponents actually beaten. The composite Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with win quality (35%). Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, falling back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. For fighters with limited UFC experience the headline is held toward a rookie baseline, so debut / low-sample fighters read lower than established names. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.
Career splits
Striking matchup
Each fighter's offense mapped against the other's defense — where one attacks meets where the other gets hit, across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.
Evenly matched striking — no clear edge either way.
Where Guskov attacks (green = high volume) vs where Costa gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Guskov’s green zones meeting Costa’s red zones are the openings.
- Head88%82nd175
- Body5%34th9
- Leg8%49th15
Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes
- Head65%17th588
- Body22%11th195
- Leg13%29th121
Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent
- Standing59%117
- Clinch6%11
- Ground36%71
- Standing92%836
- Clinch6%58
- Ground1%10
Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.
Full breakdown — all zones, both views
| Zone | Fighter | Landed / 15 | Accuracy | Absorbed / 15 | Career landed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head | Bogdan Guskov | top 18% of division45.9 | 53% | below division average38.1 | 175 |
| Head | Paulo Costa | top 30% of division39.5 | 44% | well below average53.1 | 422 |
| Body | Bogdan Guskov | below division average6.6 | 90% | around division average9.0 | 9 |
| Body | Paulo Costa | elite — top of division31.2 | 82% | bottom of the division17.2 | 379 |
| Leg | Bogdan Guskov | around division average6.8 | 88% | well below average11.2 | 15 |
| Leg | Paulo Costa | top 27% of division12.0 | 89% | well below average11.2 | 133 |
Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.
Grappling matchup
Takedowns, submission threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.
Each metric graded on the division — the bar leans toward whoever wins that part of the grappling exchange (longer + greener = a bigger edge).
Guskov has the grappling edge (+9).
Full breakdown — career grappling totals
| Metric | Bogdan Guskov | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted | —0 / 0 | 43%3 / 7 |
| Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced | 57%4 / 7 | 78%21 / 27 |
| Submission attempts / 15career attempts | 0.72 | 0.00 |
| Control time / 15 (min)career total | 2.1 min6:14 | 0.8 min8:24 |
| Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total | 3.4 min9:44 | 0.6 min6:21 |
All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time. Accuracy under 8 career attempts is shown raw and ungraded — too small a sample to rate against the division.
Finishing & durability
How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.
When their fights end
every pro finish on the fight clockFinish & durability rates
Full professional career
Full method breakdown
| Outcome | Bogdan Guskov | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | ||
| by KO / TKO | 15(83%) | 12(75%) |
| by submission | 3(17%) | 1(6%) |
| by decision | 0(0%) | 3(19%) |
| Losses | ||
| by KO / TKO | 1(33%) | 1(25%) |
| by submission | 1(33%) | 0(0%) |
| by decision | 1(33%) | 3(75%) |
Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.
KO history
UFC fights only — knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head, then when the last finish landed, and on whom.
- Last time KO'dNever finished by strikes in the UFC
- Last time submittedvs Volkan Oezdemir2y 9mo agoUFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · Sep 2, 2023 · R1 · 3:46
- Last time KO'dvs Israel Adesanya5y 8mo agoUFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · Sep 26, 2020 · R2 · 3:59
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
Pace & fade
How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.
Costa keeps 94% of round-1 output by round 3 (within fights reaching round 3). Guskov hasn't reached the third round in enough UFC bouts to read a pace pattern yet.
Faded points are drawn from a single bout that reached that round, so they’re less reliable than the solid points averaged over many fights.
Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.
Full per-round breakdown — both fighters
What drives the pace · per round
The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.
| Round | Fighter | Output / min | Sig landed / min | Sig absorbed / min | TD att / min | Control | Bouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bogdan Guskov | 3.0 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 0.00 | 4% | 6 |
| R1 | Paulo Costa | 6.4 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 0.04 | 7% | 12 |
| R2 | Bogdan Guskov | 9.8 | 8.0 | 2.7 | 0.00 | 44% | 3 |
| R2 | Paulo Costa | 6.7 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 0.05 | 3% | 11 |
| R3 | Bogdan Guskov | 5.4 | 5.4 | 9.6 | 0.00 | 0% | 1 |
| R3 | Paulo Costa | 6.2 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 0.10 | 9% | 7 |
| R4 | Bogdan Guskov | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R4 | Paulo Costa | 5.9 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 0.00 | 0% | 2 |
| R5 | Bogdan Guskov | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R5 | Paulo Costa | 7.9 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 0.00 | 4% | 2 |
Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.