Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista — Bantamweight at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
- Weight class
- Bantamweight
- Rounds
- 3 × 5 min
- Venue
- T-Mobile Arena · Las Vegas, Nevada
Markets
- Sandhagen57%-148
- Bautista43%+124
Record when favored vs. an underdog, across the 15priced bouts in each fighter’s history.
Percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.
Career splits
16 bouts · vs Bautista
- KO/TKO6
- Submission1
- Decision4
- KO/TKO0
- Submission1
- Decision4
- Average14:43
- vs Orthodox8-4
- vs Southpaw1-0
- vs Switch2-1
- vs Longer reach2-1
- vs Shorter reach6-3
14 bouts · vs Sandhagen
- KO/TKO1
- Submission4
- Decision6
- KO/TKO1
- Submission1
- Decision1
- Average10:06
- vs Orthodox4-1
- vs Southpaw2-1
- vs Switch5-1
- vs Longer reachno data
- vs Shorter reachno data
Tale of the Tape
The biometric and experience deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.
Finishing & durability
How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.
When their fights end
every UFC finish on the fight clockFull method breakdown
| Outcome | Cory Sandhagen | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | ||
| by KO / TKO | 655% | 19% |
| by submission | 19% | 436% |
| by decision | 436% | 655% |
| Losses | ||
| by KO / TKO | 00% | 133% |
| by submission | 120% | 133% |
| by decision | 480% | 133% |
| Pace | ||
| Avg finish time (own wins) | R2 2:42 | R2 0:25 |
| Finishes used in avg | 7 | 5 |
Counts come from the same denormalised win/loss-by-method columns the rest of the site uses. The percentile context on each row is computed against fighters currently assigned to this weight class with at least two resolved UFC bouts.
KO history
Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head — then when the last finish landed, and on whom.
- Last KO/TKO scoredvs Deiveson Figueiredo1 year agoUFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · May 3, 2025 · R2 · 4:08
- Last time KO'dNever finished by strikes in the UFC
- Last submission scoredvs Mario Bautista7y 4mo agoUFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · Jan 19, 2019 · R1 · 3:31
- Last time submittedvs Aljamain Sterling5y 11mo agoUFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · Jun 6, 2020 · R1 · 1:28
- Last KO/TKO scoredvs Miles Johns6y 3mo agoUFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes · Feb 8, 2020 · R2 · 1:41
- Last time KO'dvs Trevin Jones5y 2mo agoUFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · Mar 6, 2021 · R2 · 0:47
- Last submission scoredvs Vinicius Oliveira3 months agoUFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · Feb 7, 2026 · R2 · 4:46
- Last time submittedvs Cory Sandhagen7y 4mo agoUFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · Jan 19, 2019 · R1 · 3:31
Common opponents
The single UFC opponent both fighters have faced. Reads as a directional signal, not a verdict.
Schedule Score
Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.
Per-tier records + bout-by-bout
| Tier | Cory Sandhagen | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Champion | 0-2 | — |
| Top-5 | 5-2 | 0-1 |
| Top-15 | 3-1 | 4-0 |
| Cross-div ranked | 1-0 | — |
| Building | — | 3-0 |
| Unproven | 2-0 | 4-2 |
- L vs Merab DvalishviliCHAMP100Oct 4, 2025 · Champion
- W vs Deiveson Figueiredo#583May 3, 2025 · Top-5
- L vs Umar Nurmagomedov#1068Aug 3, 2024 · Top-15
- W vs Rob Font45Aug 5, 2023 · Cross-div ranked
- W vs Marlon Vera#481Mar 25, 2023 · Top-5
- W vs Song Yadong#1068Sep 17, 2022 · Top-15
- L vs Petr Yan#190Oct 30, 2021 · Top-5
- L vs TJ DillashawCHAMP100Jul 24, 2021 · Champion
- W vs Frankie Edgar#481Feb 6, 2021 · Top-5
- W vs Marlon Moraes#190Oct 10, 2020 · Top-5
- L vs Aljamain Sterling#287Jun 6, 2020 · Top-5
- W vs Raphael Assuncao#384Aug 17, 2019 · Top-5
- W vs John Lineker#872Apr 27, 2019 · Top-15
- W vs Mario Bautista8Jan 19, 2019 · Unproven
- W vs Iuri Alcantara#1363Aug 25, 2018 · Top-15
- W vs Austin Arnett8Jan 27, 2018 · Unproven
- W vs Vinicius Oliveira#1167Feb 7, 2026 · Top-15
- L vs Umar Nurmagomedov#287Oct 25, 2025 · Top-5
- W vs Patchy Mix8Jun 7, 2025 · Unproven
- W vs Jose Aldo#1068Oct 5, 2024 · Top-15
- W vs Ricky Simon#1363Jan 13, 2024 · Top-15
- W vs Da'Mon Blackshear18Aug 19, 2023 · Building
- W vs Guido Cannetti18Mar 11, 2023 · Building
- W vs Benito Lopez18Nov 5, 2022 · Building
- W vs Brian Kelleher#1560Jun 25, 2022 · Top-15
- W vs Jay Perrin8Feb 19, 2022 · Unproven
- L vs Trevin Jones8Mar 6, 2021 · Unproven
- W vs Miles Johns8Feb 8, 2020 · Unproven
- W vs Jin Soo Son8Jul 20, 2019 · Unproven
- L vs Cory Sandhagen8Jan 19, 2019 · Unproven
Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with quality wins (35%) and is Bayesian-shrunken toward the UFC median for small samples. Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, and falls back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.
Recent form
Last five UFC bouts, current trajectory, and the level of opposition faced going into this matchup.
Striking matchup
Where each fighter lands their strikes — and where each one gets hit — across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.
Full breakdown — all zones, both views
| Zone | Fighter | Landed / 15 | Accuracy | Absorbed / 15 | Career landed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head | Cory Sandhagen | 47.3top 13% of division | 36% | 31.3around division average | 742 |
| Head | Mario Bautista | 48.3top 11% of division | 39% | 39.1below division average | 455 |
| Body | Cory Sandhagen | 11.3above division average | 74% | 10.9around division average | 178 |
| Body | Mario Bautista | 21.7top 8% of division | 78% | 9.87above division average | 205 |
| Leg | Cory Sandhagen | 14.3top 14% of division | 89% | 9.87below division average | 224 |
| Leg | Mario Bautista | 9.55above division average | 83% | 10.7below division average | 90 |
Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.
Grappling matchup
Wrestling output, ground threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.
Full breakdown — career grappling totals
| Metric | Cory Sandhagen | Mario Bautista | Career totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Takedowns landed / 15 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 18 / 18 |
| Takedown accuracy | 35% | 38% | 18/52 · 18/47 |
| Takedown defense | 56% | 56% | stopped 53/94 · 29/52 |
| Submission attempts / 15 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 4 / 8 |
| Control time / 15 (min) | 3.0 min | 3.5 min | 47:25 · 32:36 |
| Time controlled BY opponent / 15 (min) | 2.2 min | 2.6 min | 35:13 · 24:08 |
All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time.
Pace & fade
How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.
Cardio edge to Bautista: Bautista actually builds to 189% of round-1 work rate through round 3, while Sandhagen sustains 101% — a 88-point gap in late-round pace.
Full per-round breakdown — both fighters
What drives the pace · per round
The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.
| Round | Fighter | Output / min | Sig landed / min | Sig absorbed / min | TD att / min | Control | Bouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cory Sandhagen | 7.0 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.21 | 22% | 16 |
| R1 | Mario Bautista | 5.2 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 0.20 | 23% | 14 |
| R2 | Cory Sandhagen | 6.5 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 0.18 | 27% | 13 |
| R2 | Mario Bautista | 8.4 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 0.47 | 21% | 10 |
| R3 | Cory Sandhagen | 6.2 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 0.22 | 11% | 9 |
| R3 | Mario Bautista | 9.5 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 0.40 | 25% | 7 |
| R4 | Cory Sandhagen | 5.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 0.29 | 19% | 7 |
| R4 | Mario Bautista | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R5 | Cory Sandhagen | 5.2 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 0.23 | 18% | 6 |
| R5 | Mario Bautista | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace. See Methods for the full formula.
Activity & layoff
The recency dimension Tale of the Tape doesn't carry. How active each fighter has been, and how that compares to active peers in their division.
- Cory has 4 months more layoff