Bryce Mitchell vs Santiago Luna — Bantamweight at UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
- Weight class
- Bantamweight
- Rounds
- 3 × 5 min
- Venue
- Meta APEX · Las Vegas, Nevada
Matchup read
Where each fighter holds an advantage in this matchup — offense weighed against the opponent's defense. Tap any row to see the numbers behind it. Descriptive — not a prediction.
StrikingEven
Even striking exchange (thin sample)
GrapplingEven
Both control well (thin sample)
SubmissionClear edge · Luna
Luna is the bigger submission threat — reduced by the defense of Mitchell (thin sample)
FinishingClear edge · Luna
Luna is more likely to finish Mitchell (thin sample)
PaceClear edge · Luna
Tale of the tapeSlight edge · Luna
Luna 4" reach · Mitchell 3 cm · Luna 10y younger
Each edge weighs one fighter’s offense against the other’s defense in this matchup, not each fighter vs the division in isolation — so a strong defense reduces (not erases) the opposing threat. Tap a row for the percentiles behind it. Thin samples are dimmed; too little data reads “not enough data.”
Markets
Consensus averages Kalshi’s real-money price with the sportsbook’s vig-free probability. “Best price” is the cheaper cost to back a fighter — lower = better value.
- Over62%-198
- Under38%+149
- Yes58%-160
- No42%+123
Percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.
Record when favored vs. an underdog, across each fighter’s priced UFC bouts.
Career splits
Tale of the Tape
The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.
Recent form
Last five pro bouts (non-UFC fights dashed + tagged), current trajectory, and the level of opposition going into this matchup.
Common opponents
UFC opponents both fighters have faced — a direct read on relative quality controlling for matchmaking.
These two fighters haven’t crossed paths in the UFC cage with any of the same opponents.
Schedule Score
Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.
Based on opponents’ full career pro records (Sherdog, amateur bouts excluded) — a descriptive read of the non-UFC slate, not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.
Per-tier records + bout-by-bout
| Tier | Bryce Mitchell | Santiago Luna |
|---|---|---|
| Top-15 | 4-2 | — |
| Building | 1-1 | — |
| Unproven | 4-0 | 2-0 |
- W vs Said Nurmagomedov#1560Jul 26, 2025 · Top-15
- L vs Jean Silva18Apr 12, 2025 · Building
- W vs Kron Gracie8Dec 7, 2024 · Unproven
- L vs Josh Emmett#675Dec 16, 2023 · Top-15
- W vs Dan Ige#1363Sep 23, 2023 · Top-15
- L vs Ilia Topuria#1462Dec 10, 2022 · Top-15
- W vs Edson Barboza#1068Mar 5, 2022 · Top-15
- W vs Andre Fili#1560Oct 31, 2020 · Top-15
- W vs Charles Rosa18May 9, 2020 · Building
- W vs Matt Sayles8Dec 7, 2019 · Unproven
- W vs Bobby Moffett8Mar 23, 2019 · Unproven
- W vs Tyler Diamond8Jul 6, 2018 · Unproven
Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with quality wins (35%). For fighters with limited UFC experience the headline is held toward a rookie baseline — a thin UFC résumé hasn’t yet proven a strong schedule — so debut and low-sample fighters read lower than established names. Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, and falls back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.
Striking matchup
Where each fighter lands their strikes — and where each one gets hit — across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.
Full breakdown — all zones, both views
| Zone | Fighter | Landed / 15 | Accuracy | Absorbed / 15 | Career landed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head | Bryce Mitchell | 19.8well below average | 53% | 15.2top 7% of division | 183 |
| Head | Santiago Luna | 92.7elite — top of division | 51% | 42.1well below average | 110 |
| Body | Bryce Mitchell | 9.71around division average | 65% | 5.72top 15% of division | 90 |
| Body | Santiago Luna | 26.1elite — top of division | 65% | 13.5well below average | 31 |
| Leg | Bryce Mitchell | 4.53well below average | 88% | 3.13top 12% of division | 42 |
| Leg | Santiago Luna | 4.21well below average | 100% | 1.69top 6% of division | 5 |
Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.
Grappling matchup
Wrestling output, ground threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.
Full breakdown — career grappling totals
| Metric | Bryce Mitchell | Santiago Luna | Career totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Takedowns landed / 15 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 30 / 5 |
| Takedown accuracy | 36% | 83% | 30/83 · 5/6 |
| Takedown defense | 33% | 50% | stopped 4/12 · 1/2 |
| Submission attempts / 15 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 11 / 1 |
| Control time / 15 (min) | 7.9 min | 3.5 min | 72:57 · 4:10 |
| Time controlled BY opponent / 15 (min) | 2.4 min | 0.7 min | 22:16 · 0:50 |
All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time.
Finishing & durability
How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.
When their fights end
every UFC finish on the fight clockFinish & durability rates
UFC bouts only
Full method breakdown
| Outcome | Bryce Mitchell | Santiago Luna |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | ||
| by KO / TKO | 1(11%) | 1(50%) |
| by submission | 1(11%) | 0(0%) |
| by decision | 7(78%) | 1(50%) |
| Losses | ||
| by KO / TKO | 1(33%) | 0 |
| by submission | 2(67%) | 0 |
| by decision | 0(0%) | 0 |
| Pace | ||
| Avg finish time (own wins) | R2 2:29 | R1 2:48 |
| Finishes used in avg | 2 | 1 |
Counts come from the same denormalised win/loss-by-method columns the rest of the site uses. The percentile context on each row is computed against fighters currently assigned to this weight class with at least two resolved UFC bouts.
KO history
UFC fights only — knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head, then when the last finish landed, and on whom.
- Last time KO'dvs Josh Emmett2y 5mo agoUFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Dec 16, 2023 · R1 · 1:57
- Last time submittedvs Jean Silva1y 1mo agoUFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025 · R2 · 3:52
- Last time KO'dNever finished by strikes in the UFC
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
Pace & fade
How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.
Mitchell holds 88% of round-1 work rate by round 3. Luna hasn't reached the third round in enough UFC bouts to read a fade pattern yet.
Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.
Full per-round breakdown — both fighters
What drives the pace · per round
The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.
| Round | Fighter | Output / min | Sig landed / min | Sig absorbed / min | TD att / min | Control | Bouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bryce Mitchell | 6.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.55 | 48% | 12 |
| R1 | Santiago Luna | 7.2 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 0.38 | 21% | 2 |
| R2 | Bryce Mitchell | 6.9 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.81 | 52% | 10 |
| R2 | Santiago Luna | 13.6 | 11.2 | 2.8 | 0.40 | 30% | 1 |
| R3 | Bryce Mitchell | 5.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.39 | 61% | 8 |
| R3 | Santiago Luna | 11.2 | 9.8 | 3.4 | 0.20 | 21% | 1 |
Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.
Activity & layoff
The recency dimension Tale of the Tape doesn't carry. How active each fighter has been, and how that compares to active peers in their division.
- Bryce has 7 months more layoff
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- Bryce Mitchell recounts horrific nipple injury ahead of UFC Vegas 118mmafighting · Jun 4, 2026
- Bryce Mitchell Blasts UFC Freedom 250: “The government is supposed to protect us, not entertain us”lowkickmma · Jun 4, 2026