Iwo Baraniewski vs Junior Tafa — Light Heavyweight at UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
- Weight class
- Light Heavyweight
- Rounds
- 3 × 5 min
- Venue
- Meta APEX · Las Vegas, Nevada
Matchup read
Where each fighter holds an advantage in this matchup — offense weighed against the opponent's defense. Tap any row to see the numbers behind it. Descriptive — not a prediction.
StrikingSlight edge · Baraniewski
Baraniewski out-strikes Tafa (thin sample)
GrapplingEven
Wrestling stays neutral (thin sample)
SubmissionSlight edge · Baraniewski
Baraniewski is the bigger submission threat — reduced by the defense of Tafa (thin sample)
FinishingClear edge · Baraniewski
Baraniewski is more likely to finish Tafa (thin sample)
PaceClear edge · Baraniewski
Tale of the tapeClear edge · Tafa
Tafa 2" reach · Tafa 8 cm
Each edge weighs one fighter’s offense against the other’s defense in this matchup, not each fighter vs the division in isolation — so a strong defense reduces (not erases) the opposing threat. Tap a row for the percentiles behind it. Thin samples are dimmed; too little data reads “not enough data.”
Markets
Consensus averages Kalshi’s real-money price with the sportsbook’s vig-free probability. “Best price” is the cheaper cost to back a fighter — lower = better value.
- Over17%+460
- Under83%-835
- Yes13%+625
- No87%-1115
Percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.
Record when favored vs. an underdog, across each fighter’s priced UFC bouts.
Career splits
Tale of the Tape
The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.
Recent form
Last five pro bouts (non-UFC fights dashed + tagged), current trajectory, and the level of opposition going into this matchup.
Common opponents
UFC opponents both fighters have faced — a direct read on relative quality controlling for matchmaking.
These two fighters haven’t crossed paths in the UFC cage with any of the same opponents.
Schedule Score
Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.
Based on opponents’ full career pro records (Sherdog, amateur bouts excluded) — a descriptive read of the non-UFC slate, not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.
Per-tier records + bout-by-bout
| Tier | Iwo Baraniewski | Junior Tafa |
|---|---|---|
| Top-15 | — | 0-1 |
| Building | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Unproven | 1-0 | 2-3 |
- W vs Kevin Christian8May 2, 2026 · Unproven
- L vs Billy Elekana18Jan 31, 2026 · Building
- L vs Tuco Tokkos8Jul 12, 2025 · Unproven
- W vs Sean Sharaf8Oct 12, 2024 · Unproven
- L vs Valter Walker8Aug 17, 2024 · Unproven
- L vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima#1560Feb 17, 2024 · Top-15
- W vs Parker Porter18Aug 26, 2023 · Building
- L vs Mohammed Usman8Apr 22, 2023 · Unproven
Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with quality wins (35%). For fighters with limited UFC experience the headline is held toward a rookie baseline — a thin UFC résumé hasn’t yet proven a strong schedule — so debut and low-sample fighters read lower than established names. Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, and falls back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.
Striking matchup
Where each fighter lands their strikes — and where each one gets hit — across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.
Full breakdown — all zones, both views
| Zone | Fighter | Landed / 15 | Accuracy | Absorbed / 15 | Career landed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head | Iwo Baraniewski | 208elite — top of division | 69% | 223bottom of the division | 27 |
| Head | Junior Tafa | 43.5top 23% of division | 49% | 26.1above division average | 160 |
| Body | Iwo Baraniewski | 23.1top 6% of division | 75% | 0.00elite — top of division | 3 |
| Body | Junior Tafa | 9.51above division average | 83% | 4.07top 10% of division | 35 |
| Leg | Iwo Baraniewski | 15.4top 13% of division | 100% | 7.69around division average | 2 |
| Leg | Junior Tafa | 1.36bottom of the division | 100% | 9.78below division average | 5 |
Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.
Grappling matchup
Wrestling output, ground threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.
Full breakdown — career grappling totals
| Metric | Iwo Baraniewski | Junior Tafa | Career totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Takedowns landed / 15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 / 0 |
| Takedown accuracy | 0% | — | 0/1 · 0/0 |
| Takedown defense | 100% | 72% | stopped 1/1 · 31/43 |
| Submission attempts / 15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 / 0 |
| Control time / 15 (min) | 1.9 min | 0.2 min | 0:15 · 0:49 |
| Time controlled BY opponent / 15 (min) | 0.8 min | 8.1 min | 0:06 · 29:57 |
All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time.
Finishing & durability
How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.
When their fights end
every UFC finish on the fight clockFinish & durability rates
UFC bouts only
Full method breakdown
| Outcome | Iwo Baraniewski | Junior Tafa |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | ||
| by KO / TKO | 2(100%) | 3(100%) |
| by submission | 0(0%) | 0(0%) |
| by decision | 0(0%) | 0(0%) |
| Losses | ||
| by KO / TKO | 0 | 1(20%) |
| by submission | 0 | 3(60%) |
| by decision | 0 | 1(20%) |
| Pace | ||
| Avg finish time (own wins) | R1 0:58 | R1 3:47 |
| Finishes used in avg | 2 | 3 |
Counts come from the same denormalised win/loss-by-method columns the rest of the site uses. The percentile context on each row is computed against fighters currently assigned to this weight class with at least two resolved UFC bouts.
KO history
UFC fights only — knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head, then when the last finish landed, and on whom.
- Last time KO'dNever finished by strikes in the UFC
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
- Last time KO'dvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima2y 3mo agoUFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024 · R2 · 1:14
- Last time submittedvs Billy Elekana4 months agoUFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · Jan 31, 2026 · R2 · 3:18
Pace & fade
How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.
Neither fighter has reached the third round in enough UFC bouts to read a reliable fade pattern — most of their fights end early. The round-by-round pace below is shown for what rounds there are.
Not enough shared rounds with per-round data to plot a comparable pace curve — at least one fighter rarely sees the later rounds.
Full per-round breakdown — both fighters
| Round | Fighter | Output / min | Sig landed / min | Sig absorbed / min | TD att / min | Control | Bouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Iwo Baraniewski | 18.5 | 16.4 | 15.4 | 0.51 | 13% | 2 |
| R1 | Junior Tafa | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 0.00 | 2% | 8 |
| R2 | Iwo Baraniewski | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R2 | Junior Tafa | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.00 | 2% | 5 |
| R3 | Iwo Baraniewski | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R3 | Junior Tafa | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.00 | 0% | 1 |
Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.
Activity & layoff
The recency dimension Tale of the Tape doesn't carry. How active each fighter has been, and how that compares to active peers in their division.