Sean O'Malley vs Aiemann Zahabi — Bantamweight at UFC Freedom 250
- Weight class
- Bantamweight
- Rounds
- 3 × 5 min
- Venue
- White House · Washington, D.C.
Markets
Prices from Kalshi, a regulated prediction market — each figure is the real-money implied probability that fighter wins, set by live trading. “Books” is the de-vigged sportsbook consensus shown for comparison.
- O'Malley77%-395
- Zahabi23%+310
Record when favored vs. an underdog, across the 10priced bouts in each fighter’s history.
Percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.
Career splits
14 bouts · vs Zahabi
- KO/TKO6
- Submission0
- Decision5
- KO/TKO1
- Submission1
- Decision1
- Average12:18
- vs Orthodox6-2
- vs Southpaw3-0
- vs Switch2-1
- vs Longer reachno data
- vs Shorter reach10-3
10 bouts · vs O'Malley
- KO/TKO2
- Submission0
- Decision6
- KO/TKO1
- Submission0
- Decision1
- Average12:07
- vs Orthodox7-2
- vs Southpawno data
- vs Switch1-0
- vs Longer reachno data
- vs Shorter reachno data
Tale of the Tape
The biometric and experience deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.
Finishing & durability
How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.
When their fights end
every UFC finish on the fight clockFull method breakdown
| Outcome | Sean O'Malley | Aiemann Zahabi |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | ||
| by KO / TKO | 655% | 225% |
| by submission | 00% | 00% |
| by decision | 545% | 675% |
| Losses | ||
| by KO / TKO | 133% | 150% |
| by submission | 133% | 00% |
| by decision | 133% | 150% |
| Pace | ||
| Avg finish time (own wins) | R2 2:09 | R1 2:04 |
| Finishes used in avg | 6 | 2 |
Counts come from the same denormalised win/loss-by-method columns the rest of the site uses. The percentile context on each row is computed against fighters currently assigned to this weight class with at least two resolved UFC bouts.
KO history
Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head — then when the last finish landed, and on whom.
- Last KO/TKO scoredvs Aljamain Sterling2y 9mo agoUFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023 · R2 · 0:51
- Last time KO'dvs Marlon Vera5y 9mo agoUFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · Aug 15, 2020 · R1 · 4:40
- Last submission scoredNo submission wins in the UFC yet
- Last time submittedvs Merab Dvalishvili11 months agoUFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 7, 2025 · R3 · 4:42
- Last KO/TKO scoredvs Aoriqileng2y 11mo agoUFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · Jun 10, 2023 · R1 · 1:04
- Last time KO'dvs Ricardo Ramos8y 6mo agoUFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre · Nov 4, 2017 · R3 · 1:58
- Last submission scoredNo submission wins in the UFC yet
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
Common opponents
Every UFC opponent both fighters have faced — a direct comparison controlling for matchmaking.
Schedule Score
Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.
Per-tier records + bout-by-bout
| Tier | Sean O'Malley | Aiemann Zahabi |
|---|---|---|
| Champion | 1-1 | — |
| Top-5 | 3-1 | — |
| Top-15 | 3-1, 1 NC | 3-0 |
| Established | 1-0 | — |
| Building | — | 2-0 |
| Unproven | 3-0 | 3-2 |
- W vs Song Yadong#578Jan 24, 2026 · Top-5
- L vs Merab DvalishviliCHAMP100Jun 7, 2025 · Champion
- L vs Merab Dvalishvili#190Sep 14, 2024 · Top-5
- W vs Marlon Vera#578Mar 9, 2024 · Top-5
- W vs Aljamain SterlingCHAMP100Aug 19, 2023 · Champion
- W vs Petr Yan#190Oct 22, 2022 · Top-5
- NC vs Pedro Munhoz#970Jul 2, 2022 · Top-15
- W vs Raulian Paiva#1560Dec 11, 2021 · Top-15
- W vs Kris Moutinho8Jul 10, 2021 · Unproven
- W vs Thomas Almeida#1560Mar 27, 2021 · Top-15
- L vs Marlon Vera#1560Aug 15, 2020 · Top-15
- W vs Eddie Wineland#1560Jun 6, 2020 · Top-15
- W vs Jose Quinonez30Mar 7, 2020 · Established
- W vs Andre Soukhamthath8Mar 3, 2018 · Unproven
- W vs Terrion Ware8Dec 1, 2017 · Unproven
- W vs Marlon Vera#773Oct 18, 2025 · Top-15
- W vs Jose Aldo#1462May 10, 2025 · Top-15
- W vs Pedro Munhoz#1560Nov 2, 2024 · Top-15
- W vs Javid Basharat18Mar 2, 2024 · Building
- W vs Aoriqileng18Jun 10, 2023 · Building
- W vs Ricky Turcios8Jul 9, 2022 · Unproven
- W vs Drako Rodriguez8Feb 20, 2021 · Unproven
- L vs Vince Morales8May 4, 2019 · Unproven
- L vs Ricardo Ramos8Nov 4, 2017 · Unproven
- W vs Reginaldo Vieira8Feb 19, 2017 · Unproven
Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with quality wins (35%) and is Bayesian-shrunken toward the UFC median for small samples. Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, and falls back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.
Recent form
Last five UFC bouts, current trajectory, and the level of opposition faced going into this matchup.
Striking matchup
Where each fighter lands their strikes — and where each one gets hit — across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.
Full breakdown — all zones, both views
| Zone | Fighter | Landed / 15 | Accuracy | Absorbed / 15 | Career landed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head | Sean O'Malley | 62.1elite — top of division | 55% | 25.7top 29% of division | 713 |
| Head | Aiemann Zahabi | 49.2top 10% of division | 43% | 37.3below division average | 397 |
| Body | Sean O'Malley | 22.1top 7% of division | 75% | 8.10above division average | 254 |
| Body | Aiemann Zahabi | 11.3above division average | 65% | 12.8below division average | 91 |
| Leg | Sean O'Malley | 8.53above division average | 93% | 16.3bottom of the division | 98 |
| Leg | Aiemann Zahabi | 7.68above division average | 72% | 11.1below division average | 62 |
Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.
Grappling matchup
Wrestling output, ground threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.
Full breakdown — career grappling totals
| Metric | Sean O'Malley | Aiemann Zahabi | Career totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Takedowns landed / 15 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 3 / 1 |
| Takedown accuracy | 43% | 14% | 3/7 · 1/7 |
| Takedown defense | 60% | 84% | stopped 37/62 · 26/31 |
| Submission attempts / 15 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 3 / 0 |
| Control time / 15 (min) | 0.2 min | 0.7 min | 2:01 · 5:33 |
| Time controlled BY opponent / 15 (min) | 2.9 min | 0.4 min | 32:47 · 3:08 |
All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time.
Pace & fade
How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.
Cardio edge to Zahabi: Zahabi actually builds to 186% of round-1 work rate through round 3, while O'Malley actually builds to 116% — a 70-point gap in late-round pace.
Full per-round breakdown — both fighters
What drives the pace · per round
The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.
| Round | Fighter | Output / min | Sig landed / min | Sig absorbed / min | TD att / min | Control | Bouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Sean O'Malley | 5.7 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.05 | 0% | 14 |
| R1 | Aiemann Zahabi | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 0.05 | 4% | 10 |
| R2 | Sean O'Malley | 6.4 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 0.00 | 3% | 10 |
| R2 | Aiemann Zahabi | 4.8 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 0.05 | 2% | 8 |
| R3 | Sean O'Malley | 7.1 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 0.09 | 1% | 9 |
| R3 | Aiemann Zahabi | 6.6 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 0.08 | 8% | 8 |
| R4 | Sean O'Malley | 6.2 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 0.00 | 0% | 2 |
| R4 | Aiemann Zahabi | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R5 | Sean O'Malley | 7.2 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.00 | 0% | 2 |
| R5 | Aiemann Zahabi | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace. See Methods for the full formula.
Activity & layoff
The recency dimension Tale of the Tape doesn't carry. How active each fighter has been, and how that compares to active peers in their division.
- Aiemann has 3 months more layoff