Josh Hokit vs Derrick Lewis — Heavyweight at UFC Freedom 250
- Weight class
- Heavyweight
- Rounds
- 3 × 5 min
- Venue
- White House · Washington, D.C.
Markets
Prices from Kalshi, a regulated prediction market — each figure is the real-money implied probability that fighter wins, set by live trading. “Books” is the de-vigged sportsbook consensus shown for comparison.
- Hokit74%-340
- Lewis26%+270
Record when favored vs. an underdog, across the 29priced bouts in each fighter’s history.
Percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.
Career splits
3 bouts · vs Lewis
- KO/TKO2
- Submission0
- Decision1
- KO/TKO—
- Submission—
- Decision—
- Average6:58
- vs Orthodox2-0
- vs Southpaw1-0
- vs Switchno data
- vs Longer reachno data
- vs Shorter reachno data
31 bouts · vs Hokit
- KO/TKO16
- Submission0
- Decision4
- KO/TKO8
- Submission2
- Decision1
- Average8:50
- vs Orthodox18-7
- vs Southpaw1-3
- vs Switch1-1
- vs Longer reach6-3
- vs Shorter reach11-7
Tale of the Tape
The biometric and experience deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.
Finishing & durability
How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.
When their fights end
every UFC finish on the fight clockFull method breakdown
| Outcome | Josh Hokit | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | ||
| by KO / TKO | 267% | 1680% |
| by submission | 00% | 00% |
| by decision | 133% | 420% |
| Losses | ||
| by KO / TKO | 0 | 873% |
| by submission | 0 | 218% |
| by decision | 0 | 19% |
| Pace | ||
| Avg finish time (own wins) | R1 2:57 | R2 2:16 |
| Finishes used in avg | 2 | 16 |
Counts come from the same denormalised win/loss-by-method columns the rest of the site uses. The percentile context on each row is computed against fighters currently assigned to this weight class with at least two resolved UFC bouts.
KO history
Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head — then when the last finish landed, and on whom.
- Last KO/TKO scoredvs Denzel Freeman4 months agoUFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · Jan 24, 2026 · R1 · 4:59
- Last time KO'dNever finished by strikes in the UFC
- Last submission scoredNo submission wins in the UFC yet
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
- Last KO/TKO scoredvs Tallison Teixeira10 months agoUFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Jul 12, 2025 · R1 · 0:35
- Last time KO'dvs Waldo Cortes Acosta4 months agoUFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · Jan 24, 2026 · R2 · 3:14
- Last submission scoredNo submission wins in the UFC yet
- Last time submittedvs Serghei Spivac3y 3mo agoUFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac · Feb 4, 2023 · R1 · 3:05
Common opponents
The single UFC opponent both fighters have faced. Reads as a directional signal, not a verdict.
Schedule Score
Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.
Per-tier records + bout-by-bout
| Tier | Josh Hokit | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Champion | — | 0-1 |
| Top-5 | 1-0 | 3-2 |
| Top-15 | — | 10-6 |
| Cross-div ranked | — | 1-0 |
| Contender-level | — | 1-0 |
| Established | — | 0-2 |
| Unproven | 2-0 | 5-0 |
- L vs Waldo Cortes Acosta#578Jan 24, 2026 · Top-5
- W vs Tallison Teixeira#1363Jul 12, 2025 · Top-15
- W vs Rodrigo Nascimento#1560May 11, 2024 · Top-15
- L vs Jailton Almeida#970Nov 4, 2023 · Top-15
- W vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima45Jul 29, 2023 · Contender-level
- L vs Serghei Spivac#1265Feb 4, 2023 · Top-15
- L vs Sergei Pavlovich#1167Jul 30, 2022 · Top-15
- L vs Tai Tuivasa#1167Feb 12, 2022 · Top-15
- W vs Chris Daukaus#773Dec 18, 2021 · Top-15
- L vs Ciryl Gane#384Aug 7, 2021 · Top-5
- W vs Curtis Blaydes#287Feb 20, 2021 · Top-5
- W vs Aleksei Oleinik#1167Aug 8, 2020 · Top-15
- W vs Ilir Latifi45Feb 8, 2020 · Cross-div ranked
- W vs Blagoy Ivanov#872Nov 2, 2019 · Top-15
- L vs Junior Dos Santos#773Mar 9, 2019 · Top-15
- L vs Daniel CormierCHAMP100Nov 3, 2018 · Champion
- W vs Alexander Volkov#578Oct 6, 2018 · Top-5
- W vs Francis Ngannou#190Jul 7, 2018 · Top-5
- W vs Marcin Tybura#970Feb 18, 2018 · Top-15
- L vs Mark Hunt#773Jun 10, 2017 · Top-15
- W vs Travis Browne#970Feb 19, 2017 · Top-15
- W vs Shamil Abdurakhimov#1560Dec 9, 2016 · Top-15
- W vs Roy Nelson#1068Jul 7, 2016 · Top-15
- W vs Gabriel Gonzaga#1462Apr 10, 2016 · Top-15
- W vs Damian Grabowski8Feb 6, 2016 · Unproven
- W vs Viktor Pesta8Oct 3, 2015 · Unproven
- L vs Shawn Jordan30Jun 6, 2015 · Established
- W vs Ruan Potts8Feb 28, 2015 · Unproven
- L vs Matt Mitrione30Sep 5, 2014 · Established
- W vs Guto Inocente8Jul 6, 2014 · Unproven
- W vs Jack May8Apr 19, 2014 · Unproven
Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with quality wins (35%) and is Bayesian-shrunken toward the UFC median for small samples. Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, and falls back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.
Recent form
Last five UFC bouts, current trajectory, and the level of opposition faced going into this matchup.
Striking matchup
Where each fighter lands their strikes — and where each one gets hit — across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.
Full breakdown — all zones, both views
| Zone | Fighter | Landed / 15 | Accuracy | Absorbed / 15 | Career landed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head | Josh Hokit | 146elite — top of division | 59% | 108bottom of the division | 204 |
| Head | Derrick Lewis | 29.2below division average | 46% | 23.8top 20% of division | 533 |
| Body | Josh Hokit | 13.6top 22% of division | 79% | 12.9well below average | 19 |
| Body | Derrick Lewis | 6.19below division average | 70% | 7.99above division average | 113 |
| Leg | Josh Hokit | 0.00bottom of the division | — | 5.74above division average | 0 |
| Leg | Derrick Lewis | 1.59well below average | 71% | 6.79around division average | 29 |
Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.
Grappling matchup
Wrestling output, ground threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.
Full breakdown — career grappling totals
| Metric | Josh Hokit | Derrick Lewis | Career totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Takedowns landed / 15 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 1 / 10 |
| Takedown accuracy | 33% | 26% | 1/3 · 10/38 |
| Takedown defense | 75% | 52% | stopped 6/8 · 54/103 |
| Submission attempts / 15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 / 0 |
| Control time / 15 (min) | 3.2 min | 1.7 min | 4:26 · 30:49 |
| Time controlled BY opponent / 15 (min) | 1.5 min | 5.3 min | 2:05 · 96:41 |
All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time.
Pace & fade
How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.
Lewis actually builds to 110% of round-1 work rate by round 3. Hokit hasn't reached the third round in enough UFC bouts to read a fade pattern yet.
Full per-round breakdown — both fighters
What drives the pace · per round
The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.
| Round | Fighter | Output / min | Sig landed / min | Sig absorbed / min | TD att / min | Control | Bouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Josh Hokit | 10.2 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 0.27 | 36% | 3 |
| R1 | Derrick Lewis | 3.3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 0.15 | 15% | 31 |
| R2 | Josh Hokit | 11.1 | 10.8 | 11.2 | 0.00 | 7% | 1 |
| R2 | Derrick Lewis | 3.5 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 0.10 | 10% | 21 |
| R3 | Josh Hokit | 16.5 | 16.4 | 12.0 | 0.00 | 4% | 1 |
| R3 | Derrick Lewis | 3.1 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 0.14 | 4% | 12 |
| R4 | Josh Hokit | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R4 | Derrick Lewis | 4.2 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.16 | 9% | 3 |
| R5 | Josh Hokit | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R5 | Derrick Lewis | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.20 | 8% | 1 |
Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace. See Methods for the full formula.
Activity & layoff
The recency dimension Tale of the Tape doesn't carry. How active each fighter has been, and how that compares to active peers in their division.
- Josh Hokit Roasts Tallison Teixeira After 39-Second TKO Loss at UFC Macaulowkickmma · May 30, 2026
- Kyle Snyder vs. Brock Lesnar or Josh Hokit in RAF? Olympic champ says he’s gamemmafighting · May 29, 2026
- Video: Derrick Lewis levels fan with stiff body shotmmafighting · May 29, 2026
- Watch the fight that got Josh Hokit on the UFC White House cardmmaweekly · May 26, 2026
- Josh Hokit does not respect UFC White House rival Derrick Lewis after he ‘gave up’ in his last fightbloodyelbow · May 21, 2026
- Alex Pereira weighs in on 'problematic' Josh Hokitsherdog · May 19, 2026