Dana White's Contender Series 2026: Week 1
Full Card Research Hub
| Books · no-vig win % | Kalshi · win % | |||||||
| Upd | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fabrizio Escarrega vs Abe Alsaghir Lightweight | -185 | 45% | 61% | +16.2 | — | — | — | 9m |
Ananias Mulumba vs Tom Pagliarulo Featherweight | -165 | 50% | 58% | +8.4 | — | — | — | 9m |
Jonathan Kunneman vs Joseph Kropschot Middleweight | -300 | 75% | 69% | −6.2 | — | — | — | 9m |
Anthony Wint vs Matthew Adams Heavyweight | -850 | 83% | 83% | 0.0 | — | — | — | 9m |
Bilal Hasan vs Mridul Saikia Flyweight | -2000 | 88% | 88% | 0.0 | — | — | — | 9m |
Figures follow each fight’s favorite · Open = Sunday’s line
Mulumba holds the edge everywhere the matchup can be measured; the deeper numbers live on the bout page.
A clash of styles that nets out close — Escarrega owns striking, Alsaghir owns submission.
Kropschot has never heard a final bell in 11 pro fights, and Kunneman has never heard a final bell in 10 pro fights. Full pro careers, wins and losses alike.
Saikia is the submission threat (5 sub wins); Hasan has 1.
The market underdog the model most disagrees upward on — model probability, market price, and the gap between them.
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Anthony WintvsMatthew Adams Heavyweight·Even by the numbers | -850/+450 | – | – | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fabrizio EscarregavsAbe Alsaghir Lightweight·Even by the numbers | -185/+145 | – | – | ||
Mridul SaikiavsBilal Hasan Flyweight·Even by the numbers | -2000/+700 | – | – | ||
Ananias MulumbavsTom Pagliarulo Featherweight·Mulumba — submission | -165/+125 | – | – | ||
Joseph KropschotvsJonathan Kunneman Middleweight·Kropschot — broader edge | -300/+200 | – | – | – |
Tap any column header to sort the card by it. Each bar points to the fighter who holds that edge (left = first-listed fighter); longer = stronger. “Finish lean” weighs a finishing threat against the opponent’s durability. Fights with too little data are left ungraded. Descriptive research — not predictions.