Live·Saturday, July 25, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs Guskov
Etihad Arena·Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
52Modest
Card rating
Modest
Full Card Research Hub
Betting context· where this card’s lines sit in 17 years of priced UFC history
Shaky favorite
Dustin Jacoby is just 7-5 as a favorite
Favored again here (-155) — but he wins 58.3% of his UFC bouts as a favorite, well under the 67.6% favorites cash league-wide since 2008.
7-5 on that side, fight by fight
Closing lines · since 2008mmaindex.com
Live underdog
Santiago Ponzinibbio wins 42.9% of his fights as an underdog
An underdog again here (+300), and a live one: 3-4 as a UFC dog since 2008 — well over the 32.4% underdogs win league-wide.
3-4 on that side, fight by fight
Closing lines · since 2008mmaindex.com
Card insights
Statistical mismatch
WelterweightIzagakhmaev leads finishing and pace
Abubakar VagaevvsSaygid Izagakhmaev
The widest measured gap is finishing — side by side:
VagaevIzagakhmaevFinish rate (of wins)21% (5/24)73% (16/22)By KO/TKO43By submission113
Closest matchup
Light HeavyweightTightest fight on paper
Muhammad SaidvsDustin Jacoby
The card’s tightest matchup — the edges on each side roughly cancel.
Market readNo-vig win %
Said 41% · +13559% · -155 Jacoby
Finish tendencies
Light HeavyweightBoth rarely go the distance
Magomed TuchalovvsBrendson Ribeiro
Tuchalov has never heard a final bell in 5 pro fights, and only 11% of Ribeiro’s 28 pro fights have reached the judges. Full pro careers, wins and losses alike.
TuchalovRibeiroGoes the distance0%11%Finishes their wins100%94%Losses by stoppage—80%
Submission threat
WelterweightPatterson is the bigger submission threat
Santiago PonzinibbiovsSam Patterson
Patterson is the bigger submission threat on Ponzinibbio
PonzinibbioPattersonSubmission attempts01.1Sub win rate2050Submission defense00
Finishing mismatch
HeavyweightWalker can put Petersen away
Valter WalkervsThomas Petersen
Walker has finished 69% of 16 pro fights, and Petersen has been stopped in 20% of 15 — a live path to a stoppage.
WalkerPetersenWins by finish / all fights69%53%Finished / all fights0%20%
The model’s underdog
ProLocked
The market underdog the model most disagrees upward on — model probability, market price, and the gap between them.
Unlock with Pro →Line movement· no-vig win % · open → now · sortable
| Books · no-vig win % | Kalshi · win % | |||||||
| Upd | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mike Davis vs Nurullo Aliev Lightweight | +185 | 39% | 34% | −5.5 | 39% | 35% | −4.5 | 4m |
Muhammad Said vs Dustin Jacoby Light Heavyweight | +135 | 37% | 41% | +4.6 | 40% | 40% | +0.5 | 4m |
Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune Heavyweight | -315 | 69% | 73% | +4.1 | 72% | 72% | −0.5 | 4m |
Islam Dulatov vs Wellington Turman Welterweight | -950 | 84% | 87% | +3.2 | 86% | 88% | +1.5 | 4m |
Magomed Zaynukov vs Damian Rzepecki Lightweight | -288 | 75% | 72% | −2.9 | 76% | 74% | −2.5 | 4m |
Valter Walker vs Thomas Petersen Heavyweight | -162 | 63% | 60% | −2.9 | 66% | 63% | −3.0 | 4m |
Ismael Bonfim vs Axel Sola Lightweight | +168 | 38% | 36% | −1.7 | 39% | 37% | −2.0 | 4m |
Magomed Tuchalov vs Brendson Ribeiro Light Heavyweight | -800 | 84% | 86% | +1.7 | 85% | 87% | +1.5 | 4m |
Steve Erceg vs Ramazonbek Temirov Flyweight | -108 | 51% | 50% | −1.6 | 50% | 50% | 0.0 | 4m |
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Sam Patterson Welterweight | +300 | 23% | 24% | +0.5 | 23% | 23% | 0.0 | 4m |
Magomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan Guskov Light Heavyweight | -550 | 81% | 81% | 0.0 | 81% | 83% | +2.0 | 4m |
Abubakar Vagaev vs Saygid Izagakhmaev Welterweight | -265 | 69% | 69% | 0.0 | 71% | 70% | −1.0 | 4m |
Cody Gibson vs Abdul Hussein Bantamweight | +385 | 20% | 20% | 0.0 | 18% | 20% | +1.5 | 4m |
Figures follow the first-listed fighter · Open = Monday’s line
Common opponents· how each fared vs shared UFC foes
Ankalaev vs GuskovLight Heavyweight
Jan Blachowicz
AnkalaevDGuskovD
Nikita Krylov
AnkalaevW DECGuskovW KO
Volkan Oezdemir
AnkalaevW DECGuskovL SUB
Walker vs PetersenHeavyweight
Don'Tale Mayes
WalkerW SUBPetersenW DEC
Camps on the card· gym rating · UFC record, this year & all-time
GOR MMAEstablished
1-0
2026
19-9All-time
Eagles MMAElite
2-0
2026
40-8All-time
Gorets Fight ClubEstablished
1-0
2026
18-4All-time
American Top TeamElite
14-11
2026
547-437All-time
Factory XElite
4-6
2026
142-122All-time
Teixeira MMA & FitnessContender
2-1
2026
48-28All-time
Show all 23 campsShow fewer
Brazilian TKOEstablished
0-5
2026
44-39All-time
Fusion X-Cel PerformanceDeveloping
0-2
2026
26-28All-time
Arizona Combat SportsDeveloping
1-0
2026
13-26All-time
Bonfim BrothersDeveloping
1-0
2026
9-4All-time
Wilkes Martial ArtsDeveloping
1-0
2026
5-3All-time
Boxing SquadDeveloping
0-1
2026
9-2All-time
Elite TeamDeveloping
First 2026 bout
15-20All-time
Fight Club AkhmatDeveloping
First 2026 bout
14-11All-time
Spartan MMAActive
1-0
2026
3-3All-time
Team CrossfaceActive
0-1
2026
4-2All-time
F-2 ArenaActive
First 2026 bout
5-2All-time
Kaizen MMAActive
First 2026 bout
3-4All-time
Muradov Legion TeamActive
First 2026 bout
2-0All-time
Triple One GymActive
First 2026 bout
1-0All-time
First 2026 bout
First 2026 bout
First 2026 bout
Full card· 13 bouts · sortable
#1Magomed Ankalaevvs#9Bogdan Guskov Light Heavyweight·Guskov — submission & finishing | -550/+400 | – | – | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#10Steve ErcegvsRamazonbek Temirov Flyweight·Limited data | -110/-108 | – | – | – | – |
Islam DulatovvsWellington Turman Welterweight·Limited data | -950/+650 | – | – | – | – |
Magomed ZaynukovvsDamian Rzepecki Lightweight·Rzepecki — submission & pace | -288/+248 | – | |||
#8Rizvan Kunievvs#9Tyrell Fortune Heavyweight·Limited data | -315/+265 | – | – | – | – |
Abubakar VagaevvsSaygid Izagakhmaev Welterweight·Izagakhmaev — finishing & pace | -265/+200 | – | – | ||
Ismael BonfimvsAxel Sola Lightweight·Limited data | -193/+168 | – | – | – | – |
#13Valter WalkervsThomas Petersen Heavyweight·Walker — finishing & submission | -162/+142 | – | |||
Muhammad SaidvsDustin Jacoby Light Heavyweight·Said — pace | -155/+135 | – | – | – | |
Santiago PonzinibbiovsSam Patterson Welterweight·Patterson — submission & finishing | -400/+300 | – | |||
Magomed TuchalovvsBrendson Ribeiro Light Heavyweight·Even by the numbers | -800/+575 | – | – | – | |
Mike DavisvsNurullo Aliev Lightweight·Even by the numbers | -220/+185 | ||||
Cody GibsonvsAbdul Hussein Bantamweight·Hussein — pace & finishing | -500/+385 | – | – |
Tap any column header to sort the card by it. Each bar points to the fighter who holds that edge (left = first-listed fighter); longer = stronger. “Finish lean” weighs a finishing threat against the opponent’s durability. Fights with too little data are left ungraded. Descriptive research — not predictions.