Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Alexander Volkanovski

edge

Movsar Evloev

Striking

◂ Volkanovski

Volkanovski out-strikes Evloev

Effective offense

A+

96th

3.4

+25

A

72nd

1.8

Defense

B

62nd

58%

+13

A

76th

61%

KO power

C

13 KO

0.3 KD

+24

F

3 KO

0.0 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

Evloev ▸

Evloev has the bigger wrestling edge on Volkanovski

Takedowns landed

B

60th

1.6

+35

A+

95th

4.8

Takedown accuracy

C

45th

34%

+30

A

75th

53%

Takedown defense

B

63rd

69%

+9

C

54th

61%

Control time

C

57th

3.0 min

+28

A+

86th

5.4 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

Even

Both real submission threats

Submission attempts

C

42nd

0.2

Even

D

41st

0.2

Sub win rate

B

59th

11%

3 subs

+8

B

67th

20%

4 subs

Submission defense

C

42nd

0%

Even

C

42nd

0%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

◂ Volkanovski

Volkanovski is more likely to finish Evloev

Finish rate

D

41st

33%

+13

D

27th

0%

KO durability

C

52nd

11%

+9

B

60th

0%

Submission defense

C

42nd

0%

Even

C

42nd

0%

See full Finishes →

Pace

◂ Volkanovski

Volkanovski pushes the higher work rate over five rounds

Work rate / min — full fight

7.9

7.1

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

7.2

6.7

Pace trend

+6%/rd

+14%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

Evloev ▸

Evloev is in better recent form than Volkanovski

Win rate (career)

83%

100%

After a win

86%

100%

Last 5

60%

100%

Win streakW2W5

See full Form →

Schedule

◂ Volkanovski

Volkanovski has faced the tougher schedule vs Evloev

Schedule strength

85%

64%

Win quality

84%

93%

Ranked opponents

14

5

Title-holder bouts

3

0

Common opp (1)2-01-0

See full Schedule →

Activity

Even

Similar activity going in

Last bout

7mo

5mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

1

Even

1

Bouts, last 24 mo

2

Even

2

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

Evloev ▸

Evloev 5 cm · Evloev 6y younger · Closed-stance matchup

Alexander VolkanovskivsMovsar Evloev

38

Age

6y

younger

32

5'6"

168cm

Height

2"

taller

5'8"

173cm

72"

182cm

Reach

0"

reach

72"

183cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Alexander VolkanovskiMovsar Evloev

Percentile

Striking/min5.993.91

Accuracy%57%47%

Defense%58%61%

Takedowns/151.64.8

TD defense%68%61%

Submissions/150.20.2

Career rate as a percentile within the featherweight (283 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Markets

Moneyline

Implied

Alexander Volkanovski

Movsar Evloev

51%

-115

MMA Index model

Unlock

49%

-105

MMA Index model

Unlock

UFC betting history

Career

VolkanovskiAlexander Volkanovski

EvloevMovsar Evloev

Notes

Sportsbook percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

VolkanovskiAlexander Volkanovski

Stat

EvloevMovsar Evloev

5

2

KO / TKO

0

—

0

Submission

0

—

10

1

Decision

10

—

16:50

Avg fight time

16:00

Alexander Volkanovski’s splits

vs Evloev

vs Southpaw

1-233%

vs Switch

1-0100%

vs Shorter reach

11-379%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Movsar Evloev’s splits

vs Volkanovski

vs Southpaw

1-0100%

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

4-0100%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Alexander VolkanovskivsMovsar Evloev

38

Age

6y

younger

32

5'6"

168cm

Height

2"

taller

5'8"

173cm

72"

182cm

Reach

0"

reach

72"

183cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

B

68th

+12

C

56th

Volkanovski has the striking edge (+12).

Attacking

Volkanovski’s offensevsEvloev’s defense

Where Volkanovski attacks (green = high volume) vs where Evloev gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Volkanovski’s green zones meeting Evloev’s red zones are the openings.

Alexander VolkanovskiOffense

Head65%91st1,180
Body10%47th188
Leg25%95th447

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Movsar EvloevDefense

Head61%67th275
Body27%46th121
Leg12%65th52

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Volkanovski — by position

76%Standing

Standing76%1,387
Clinch8%154
Ground15%274

Evloev — absorbed by position

85%Standing

Standing85%379
Clinch9%39
Ground7%30

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Volkanovski’s offensevsEvloev’s defense

Head

A+

91st

55.3

+24

B

67th

28.1

Body

C

47th

9.5

Even

C

46th

11.5

Leg

A+

95th

20.4

+30

B

65th

5.7

Evloev’s offensevsVolkanovski’s defense

Head

A

78th

42.5

+20

B

58th

30.7

Body

C

44th

9.3

Even

D

40th

12.0

Leg

D

31st

5.7

+17

C

48th

7.9

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Alexander Volkanovski	top 9% of division55.3	51%	above division average30.7	1,180
Head	Movsar Evloev	top 22% of division42.5	42%	above division average28.1	479
Body	Alexander Volkanovski	around division average9.5	67%	below division average12.0	188
Body	Movsar Evloev	below division average9.3	81%	around division average11.5	94
Leg	Alexander Volkanovski	elite — top of division20.4	78%	around division average7.9	447
Leg	Movsar Evloev	below division average5.7	76%	above division average5.7	52

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Alexander Volkanovski

Movsar Evloev

Overall Grappling

Grappling

C

54th

+17

A

71st

Evloev has the grappling edge (+17).

Takedowns

B

60th

1.6

+34

A+

94th

4.8

Takedown accuracy

C

45th

34%

33/97

+30

A

75th

53%

51/97

Takedown defense

B

63rd

69%

31/45

+9

C

54th

61%

22/36

Submission threat

C

45th

0.2

Even

C

48th

0.2

Control time

C

57th

3.0 min

+26

A

83rd

5.4 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Alexander Volkanovski	Movsar Evloev
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	1.633	4.851
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	34%33 / 97	53%51 / 97
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	69%31 / 45	61%22 / 36
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.24	0.22
Control time / 15 (min)career total	3.0 min59:50	5.4 min57:06
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	0.8 min15:43	1.1 min12:07

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Common opponents

The single UFC opponent both fighters have faced. Reads as a directional signal, not a verdict.

Alexander Volkanovski

Movsar Evloev

Record vs common opponents

Edge · Volkanovski

2-0

2-0

1-0

1-0

Both won

Decision (Unanimous)R5· 5:00

opp ranked #2

Jan 31, 2026 W

Decision (Unanimous)R5· 5:00

Decision (Unanimous)R3· 5:00

W

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Alexander Volkanovski

95

Schedule Score

Movsar Evloev

79

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

303 min

18 bouts

Octagon time

143 min

more

160 min

10 bouts

Schedule strength

85%

64%

Win quality

84%

93%

Ranked opponents

14

5

Title-holder bouts

3

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Alexander Volkanovski	Movsar Evloev
Champion	4-3	—
Top-5	6-0	4-0
Ranked 6–15	1-0	2-0
Cross-div ranked	—	1-0
Established	—	1-0
Building	1-0	—
Unproven	3-0	2-0

Alexander Volkanovski — bouts

Movsar Evloev — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Alexander Volkanovski

Movsar Evloev

Volkanovski — last 5

recent → old

Evloev — last 5

recent → old

Last 5 record

3-2

5-0

Current streak

W2

W5

Ranked opps

5 of 5

4 of 5

Layoff

7 mo

5 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Alexander Volkanovski

Movsar Evloev

Title fights

SituationVolkanovski Evloev

All title fightschallenger or champ

8-373%

—

As championbelt defenses

6-186%

—

As challengerfor the belt

2-250%

—

Camp length

SituationVolkanovski Evloev

Short turnaround< 100 days

2-0100%

—

Typical camp100–180 days

5-271%

1-0100%

Long layoff> 180 days

7-188%

8-0100%

Post-result bounce

SituationVolkanovski Evloev

After a loss

2-167%

—

After a win

12-286%

9-0100%

Rematches

SituationVolkanovski Evloev

All rematchesany repeat opponent

3-175%

—

Revenge boutslost the first

0-10%

—

Encore boutswon the first

3-0100%

—

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Alexander Volkanovski

Movsar Evloev

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Volkanovski16W–3L by finish

R1

R2

R3

R4

R5

Evloev7W–0L by finish

R1

R2

R3

R4

R5

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

20:00

25:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑22%·Volkanovski

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑22%·Volkanovski

D

29th

57%

+16

F

13th

35%

Goes the distance

Even

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Even

41%

65%

KO durability

↑9%·Evloev

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

↑9%·Evloev

C

54th

9%

+19

A

73rd

0%

Submission defense

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

Even

A

72nd

0%

Even

A

72nd

0%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Alexander Volkanovski	Movsar Evloev
Wins
by KO / TKO	13(46%)	3(15%)
by submission	3(11%)	4(20%)
by decision	12(43%)	13(65%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	3(75%)	0
by submission	0(0%)	0
by decision	1(25%)	0

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Alexander Volkanovski

vs

Movsar Evloev

28%

5 KO/TKO in 18 bouts

Knockout rate

0%

0 KO/TKO in 10 bouts

6

0.5 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

0

0.0 / 100 head

2

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

4

0.7 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

0

0.0 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Alexander VolkanovskiFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Ilia Topuria2y 6mo ago
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024 · R2 · 3:32
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Movsar EvloevFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Alexander Volkanovski

133%

R3 vs R1 · 13 bouts reaching R3

Movsar Evloev

134%

R3 vs R1 · 10 bouts reaching R3

Both lean the same way, but Evloev leans harder: Evloev builds (+14% per round through round 3), Volkanovski builds (+6% per round through round 5). Within fights that reached round 3, Volkanovski lifts to 133% of round-1 output by round 3, Evloev 134%.

Volkanovski ▲ BUILDS

Evloev ▲ BUILDSOutput / min

Faded points are drawn from a single bout that reached that round, so they’re less reliable than the solid points averaged over many fights.

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Volkanovski

Evloevlanded / min

Takedown attempts

Volkanovski

Evloevattempts / min

Control time

Volkanovski

Evloev% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Alexander Volkanovski	6.4	4.6	2.7	0.32	22%	18
R1	Movsar Evloev	6.1	2.7	2.1	0.62	37%	10
R2	Alexander Volkanovski	8.1	6.2	3.4	0.31	23%	17
R2	Movsar Evloev	7.2	4.4	2.8	0.44	37%	10
R3	Alexander Volkanovski	8.7	6.8	3.5	0.36	21%	13
R3	Movsar Evloev	8.1	4.7	3.4	0.70	33%	10
R4	Alexander Volkanovski	7.3	6.4	4.0	0.17	9%	8
R4	Movsar Evloev	7.7	4.2	3.2	0.80	26%	1
R5	Alexander Volkanovski	9.1	7.2	3.6	0.43	16%	7
R5	Movsar Evloev	7.2	2.4	2.4	1.00	44%	1

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.