Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Brendan Allen

edge

Christian Leroy Duncan

Striking

Duncan ▸

Duncan out-strikes Allen

Effective offense

A

80th

1.9

+11

A+

91st

2.5

Defense

D

35th

47%

+25

B

60th

52%

KO power

D

6 KO

0.2 KD

+15

C

10 KO

0.3 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

◂ Allen

Allen has the bigger wrestling edge on Duncan

Takedowns landed

C

58th

1.5

+32

D

26th

0.4

Takedown accuracy

C

57th

42%

+30

D

27th

20%

Takedown defense

D

39th

56%

Even

D

41st

58%

Control time

A

74th

4.5 min

+21

C

53rd

3.1 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

◂ Allen

Allen is the bigger submission threat on Duncan

Submission attempts

A

79th

1.0

+61

F

18th

0.0

Sub win rate

A

78th

54%

14 subs

+23

C

54th

7%

1 sub

Submission defense

C

45th

3%

Even

C

46th

0%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

Even

Both hard to finish

Finish rate

C

47th

60%

Even

C

47th

63%

KO durability

B

62nd

11%

+9

A

72nd

0%

Submission defense

C

46th

0%

Even

C

46th

0%

See full Finishes →

Pace

Even

Similar work rate over five rounds — Allen's pace builds while Duncan's fades

Work rate / min — full fight

5.8

Even

5.6

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

5.5

6.2

Pace trend

+6%/rd

-11%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

Duncan ▸

Duncan is in better recent form than Allen

Win rate (career)

79%

Even

80%

After a win

79%

71%

Last 5

60%

100%

Win streakW3W5

See full Form →

Schedule

◂ Allen

Allen has faced the tougher schedule vs Duncan

Schedule strength

61%

35%

Win quality

73%

63%

Ranked opponents

10

2

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

See full Schedule →

Activity

Duncan ▸

Duncan is fresher and more active than Allen

Last bout

3mo

2mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

2

3

Bouts, last 24 mo

5

Even

5

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

Duncan ▸

Duncan 4" reach · Switch-stance wrinkle

Brendan AllenvsChristian Leroy Duncan

30

Age

1y

younger

31

6'2"

188cm

Height

Even

6'2"

188cm

75"

191cm

Reach

4"

reach

79"

201cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Brendan AllenChristian Leroy Duncan

Percentile

Striking/min3.594.43

Accuracy%53%57%

Defense%47%52%

Takedowns/151.60.3

TD defense%56%63%

Submissions/151.10.0

Career rate as a percentile within the middleweight (354 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Markets

UFC betting history

Career

AllenBrendan Allen

DuncanChristian Leroy Duncan

1-0100%

As pick'em

—

Notes

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

AllenBrendan Allen

Stat

DuncanChristian Leroy Duncan

2

KO / TKO

5

0

7

0

Submission

0

6

2

Decision

3

2

11:44

Avg fight time

10:33

Brendan Allen’s splits

vs Duncan

vs Orthodox

6-460%

vs Southpaw

9-0100%

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Shorter reach

6-0100%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Christian Leroy Duncan’s splits

vs Allen

vs Southpaw

2-0100%

vs Switch

1-0100%

vs Longer reach

0-0no data

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Brendan AllenvsChristian Leroy Duncan

30

Age

1y

younger

31

6'2"

188cm

Height

Even

6'2"

188cm

75"

191cm

Reach

4"

reach

79"

201cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

C

52nd

+17

B

70th

Duncan has the striking edge (+17).

Attacking

Allen’s offensevsDuncan’s defense

Where Allen attacks (green = high volume) vs where Duncan gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Allen’s green zones meeting Duncan’s red zones are the openings.

Brendan AllenOffense

Head66%75th549
Body21%68th172
Leg14%61st113

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Christian Leroy DuncanDefense

Head53%72nd132
Body21%55th52
Leg26%36th65

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Allen — by position

78%Standing

Standing78%650
Clinch7%56
Ground15%128

Duncan — absorbed by position

78%Standing

Standing78%194
Clinch19%47
Ground3%8

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Allen’s offensevsDuncan’s defense

Head

A

75th

35.7

Even

A

72nd

22.8

Body

B

68th

11.3

+13

C

55th

8.1

Leg

B

61st

7.6

+25

D

36th

8.7

Duncan’s offensevsAllen’s defense

Head

B

63rd

32.0

+45

F

18th

43.5

Body

B

67th

10.8

+9

C

58th

7.9

Leg

A+

95th

18.0

+19

A

76th

3.6

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Brendan Allen	top 25% of division35.7	44%	well below average43.5	549
Head	Christian Leroy Duncan	above division average32.0	45%	top 28% of division22.8	232
Body	Brendan Allen	above division average11.3	80%	above division average7.9	172
Body	Christian Leroy Duncan	above division average10.8	68%	above division average8.1	79
Leg	Brendan Allen	above division average7.6	94%	top 24% of division3.6	113
Leg	Christian Leroy Duncan	elite — top of division18.0	87%	below division average8.7	158

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Brendan Allen

Christian Leroy Duncan

Overall Grappling

Grappling

B

60th

+20

D

40th

Allen has the grappling edge (+20).

Takedowns

C

58th

1.5

+22

D

36th

0.4

Takedown accuracy

C

57th

42%

22/52

+30

D

27th

20%

3/15

Takedown defense

D

39th

56%

24/43

Even

D

41st

58%

22/38

Submission threat

A

76th

1.0

+36

D

41st

0.0

Control time

B

70th

4.5 min

+15

C

54th

3.1 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Brendan Allen	Christian Leroy Duncan
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	1.522	0.43
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	42%22 / 52	20%3 / 15
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	56%24 / 43	58%22 / 38
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	1.015	0.00
Control time / 15 (min)career total	4.5 min66:12	3.1 min21:27
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	3.4 min50:55	4.5 min31:43

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Brendan Allen

70

Schedule Score

Christian Leroy Duncan

45

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

223 min

19 bouts

Octagon time

118 min

more

105 min

10 bouts

Schedule strength

61%

35%

Win quality

73%

63%

Ranked opponents

10

2

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Brendan Allen	Christian Leroy Duncan
Top-5	2-2	1-0
Ranked 6–15	7-1	1-1
Cross-div champ	0-1	—
Cross-div ranked	1-0	—
Established	3-0	1-0
Building	2-0	1-1
Unproven	—	4-0

Brendan Allen — bouts

Christian Leroy Duncan — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Brendan Allen

Christian Leroy Duncan

Allen — last 5

recent → old

Duncan — last 5

recent → old

Last 5 record

3-2

5-0

Current streak

W3

W5

Ranked opps

5 of 5

2 of 5

Layoff

3 mo

48 d

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Brendan Allen

Christian Leroy Duncan

Post-result bounce

SituationAllen Duncan

After a loss

3-175%

2-0100%

After a win

11-379%

5-271%

Camp length

SituationAllen Duncan

Short turnaround< 100 days

3-0100%

1-150%

Typical camp100–180 days

10-471%

5-183%

Long layoff> 180 days

1-0100%

Rematches

SituationAllen Duncan

All rematchesany repeat opponent

1-0100%

—

Revenge boutslost the first

1-0100%

—

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Brendan Allen

Christian Leroy Duncan

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Allen20W–3L by finish

R1

R2

R3

R4

Duncan11W–0L by finish

R1

R2

R3

R4

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

20:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

Even

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

Even

D

39th

77%

Even

D

41st

79%

Goes the distance

Both finishers

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Both finishers

30%

31%

KO durability

↑6%·Duncan

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

↑6%·Duncan

A

72nd

6%

Even

A

79th

0%

Submission defense

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

Even

B

69th

3%

Even

A

71st

0%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Brendan Allen	Christian Leroy Duncan
Wins
by KO / TKO	6(23%)	10(71%)
by submission	14(54%)	1(7%)
by decision	6(23%)	3(21%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	2(29%)	0(0%)
by submission	1(14%)	0(0%)
by decision	4(57%)	2(100%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Brendan Allen

vs

Christian Leroy Duncan

10%

2 KO/TKO in 20 bouts

Knockout rate

50%

5 KO/TKO in 10 bouts

3

0.5 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

3

1.3 / 100 head

2

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

2

0.3 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

0

0.0 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Brendan AllenFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Chris Curtis4y 9mo ago
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · Dec 4, 2021 · R2 · 1:58
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Christian Leroy DuncanFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Brendan Allen

114%

R3 vs R1 · 11 bouts reaching R3

Christian Leroy Duncan

88%

R3 vs R1 · 5 bouts reaching R3

Cardio edge to Allen: Allen holds steady (+2% per round through round 3) while Duncan fades (-11% per round through round 3). Within fights that reached round 3, Allen lifts to 114% of round-1 output by round 3, Duncan 88%.

Allen — HOLDS

Duncan ▼ FADESOutput / min

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Allen

Duncanlanded / min

Takedown attempts

Allen

Duncanattempts / min

Control time

Allen

Duncan% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Brendan Allen	5.5	3.4	3.0	0.23	34%	19
R1	Christian Leroy Duncan	5.6	4.2	1.9	0.13	27%	10
R2	Brendan Allen	5.5	4.2	4.7	0.11	25%	15
R2	Christian Leroy Duncan	6.7	5.4	3.8	0.20	16%	8
R3	Brendan Allen	5.7	4.0	4.1	0.24	22%	11
R3	Christian Leroy Duncan	4.4	3.6	1.2	0.08	13%	5
R4	Brendan Allen	6.6	2.9	2.1	0.40	63%	2
R4	Christian Leroy Duncan	—	—	—	—	—	—
R5	Brendan Allen	7.8	2.6	4.2	1.40	25%	1
R5	Christian Leroy Duncan	—	—	—	—	—	—

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.