Daniil Donchenko vs Punahele Soriano Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Daniil Donchenko

edge

Punahele Soriano

Striking

◂ Donchenko

Donchenko out-strikes Soriano

Effective offense

A+

99th

4.3

+8

A+

91st

2.3

Defense

A

84th

72%

+47

D

37th

47%

KO power

B

8 KO

1.3 KD

+10

C

7 KO

0.5 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

Even

Both control well (thin sample)

Takedowns landed

D

29th

0.6

+38

B

67th

1.8

Takedown accuracy

33%

48%

Takedown defense

75%

49%

Control time

D

41st

2.2 min

+32

A

74th

4.6 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

Even

Both real submission threats

Submission attempts

F

19th

0.0

+21

D

40th

0.1

Sub win rate

B

62nd

15%

2 subs

Even

B

62nd

15%

2 subs

Submission defense

C

42nd

0%

Even

D

37th

6%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

Even

Both finishing threats

Finish rate

C

54th

67%

Even

C

52nd

57%

KO durability

C

54th

0%

Even

C

53rd

9%

Submission defense

D

36th

0%

Even

D

33rd

9%

See full Finishes →

Pace

◂ Donchenko

Donchenko pushes the higher work rate over the fight

Work rate / min — full fight

8.7

6.7

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

8.7

6.4

Pace trend—+6%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

◂ Donchenko

Donchenko is in better recent form than Soriano

Win rate (career)

100%

64%

After a win

100%

67%

Last 5

100%

80%

Win streakW5W4

See full Form →

Schedule

Even

Comparable level of opposition

Schedule strength

20%

24%

Win quality

68%

51%

Ranked opponents

0

Even

0

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

See full Schedule →

Activity

◂ Donchenko

Donchenko is fresher and more active than Soriano

Last bout

2mo

6mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

3

2

Bouts, last 24 mo

3

Even

3

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

Even

Soriano 2" reach · Donchenko 8y younger · Open-stance matchup

Daniil DonchenkovsPunahele Soriano

25

Age

8y

younger

33

5'11"

180cm

Height

Even

5'11"

180cm

71"

180cm

Reach

2"

reach

73"

184cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Daniil DonchenkoPunahele Soriano

Percentile

Striking/min7.154.42

Accuracy%60%53%

Defense%72%47%

Takedowns/150.82.0

TD defense%75%48%

Submissions/150.00.1

Career rate as a percentile within the welterweight (442 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Pre-UFC opposition

non-UFC slate for Daniil Donchenko, from opponents’ full pro records

Daniil Donchenko

Moderate

Opponents' combined record

117-126

.481 win rate

Winning-record opponents

8 of 13

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

13

all opponents have records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

Markets

Market comparison

Kalshi · updated 8m ago

Daniil Donchenko

Consensus

68%▲ 2

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet Donchenko

Kalshi69¢bestSportsbook-23767%

Punahele Soriano

Consensus

32%▼ 1

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet Soriano

Kalshi32¢bestSportsbook+19533%

Donchenko 68%32% Soriano

$23k vol · $22k OI$20k vol · $20k OI

More Kalshi markets · yes-price

Fight goes the distance33¢

Ends under1.5 38¢2.5 56¢

Donchenko wins by

KO 46¢

Soriano wins by

KO 17¢Sub 3¢Dec 14¢

Draw / No contest 2¢

Sportsbook

Method of victory

KO/TKO

SUB

DEC

Daniil Donchenko

39%+119

8%+1000

20%+320

Punahele Soriano

15%+468

5%+1700

13%+538

KO/TKO

Submission

Decision

Daniil Donchenko

39%+119

8%+1000

20%+320

Punahele Soriano

15%+468

5%+1700

13%+538

Total rounds

Line · 2.5

Over42%+120
Under58%-164

Goes the distance

Yes35%+164
No65%-225

UFC betting history

Career

DonchenkoDaniil Donchenko

SorianoPunahele Soriano

—

As pick'em

0-10%

Line movement

Win probability over time

Kalshi68%69%1 pt

Sportsbook68%67%

Notes

Consensus averages Kalshi’s real-money price with the sportsbook’s vig-free probability. “Best price” is the cheaper cost to back a fighter — lower = better value.

Sportsbook percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

DonchenkoDaniil Donchenko

Stat

SorianoPunahele Soriano

2

—

KO / TKO

4

1

0

—

Submission

0

1

—

Decision

3

2

8:41

Avg fight time

9:41

Daniil Donchenko’s splits

vs Soriano

vs Orthodox

2-0100%

vs Southpaw

0-0no data

vs Switch

1-0100%

vs Shorter reach

0-0no data

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Punahele Soriano’s splits

vs Donchenko

vs Southpaw

2-250%

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

5-456%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Daniil DonchenkovsPunahele Soriano

25

Age

8y

younger

33

5'11"

180cm

Height

Even

5'11"

180cm

71"

180cm

Reach

2"

reach

73"

184cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

A

83rd

+22

B

61st

Donchenko has the striking edge (+22).

Attacking

Donchenko’s offensevsSoriano’s defense

Where Donchenko attacks (green = high volume) vs where Soriano gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Donchenko’s green zones meeting Soriano’s red zones are the openings.

Daniil DonchenkoOffense

Head43%78th90
Body26%90th55
Leg31%92nd65

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Punahele SorianoDefense

Head52%53rd190
Body34%18th126
Leg14%49th50

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Donchenko — by position

79%Standing

Standing79%166
Clinch11%23
Ground10%21

Soriano — absorbed by position

85%Standing

Standing85%312
Clinch13%46
Ground2%8

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Donchenko’s offensevsSoriano’s defense

Head

A

78th

37.7

+25

C

53rd

29.0

Body

A+

90th

17.7

+72

F

18th

15.6

Leg

A+

92nd

19.0

+44

C

49th

7.3

Soriano’s offensevsDonchenko’s defense

Head

A+

89th

47.1

+48

D

41st

34.1

Body

A

72nd

11.9

+20

C

52nd

9.3

Leg

D

28th

3.6

+34

B

62nd

5.5

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Daniil Donchenko	top 22% of division37.7	45%	below division average34.1	90
Head	Punahele Soriano	top 11% of division47.1	52%	around division average29.0	388
Body	Daniil Donchenko	top 10% of division17.7	77%	around division average9.3	55
Body	Punahele Soriano	top 28% of division11.9	81%	well below average15.6	91
Leg	Daniil Donchenko	top 8% of division19.0	96%	above division average5.5	65
Leg	Punahele Soriano	well below average3.6	73%	around division average7.3	11

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Daniil Donchenko

Punahele Soriano

Overall Grappling

Grappling

C

54th

Even

C

56th

Evenly matched grappling — no clear edge either way.

Takedowns

C

50th

0.6

+15

B

66th

1.8

Takedown accuracy

33%

1/3

B

64th

48%

13/27

Takedown defense

75%

3/4

D

30th

49%

20/41

Submission threat

C

58th

0.0

+10

C

48th

0.1

Control time

C

53rd

2.2 min

+17

A

70th

4.6 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Daniil Donchenko	Punahele Soriano
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	0.61	1.813
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	33%1 / 3	48%13 / 27
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	75%3 / 4	49%20 / 41
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.00	0.11
Control time / 15 (min)career total	2.2 min3:50	4.6 min32:37
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	0.8 min1:19	2.6 min18:32

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Daniil Donchenko

33

Schedule Score

Punahele Soriano

36

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

26 min

3 bouts

Octagon time

81 min

more

107 min

11 bouts

Schedule strength

20%

24%

Win quality

68%

51%

Ranked opponents

0

Even

0

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Daniil Donchenko	Punahele Soriano
Top-5	—	0-1
Ranked 6–15	—	1-1
Contender-level	1-0	—
Established	—	1-0
Building	—	2-1
Unproven	2-0	3-1

Daniil Donchenko — bouts

Punahele Soriano — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Daniil Donchenko

Punahele Soriano

Donchenko — last 5

recent → old

WNAIZA

DEC

Kudaibergenov

Nov ’24

WNFC 62

SUB R4

Uulu

Jul ’24

Soriano — last 5

recent → old

Last 5 record

5-0

4-1

Current streak

W5

W4

Ranked opps

0 of 5

Even

0 of 5

Layoff

2 mo

7 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Daniil Donchenko

Punahele Soriano

Post-result bounce

SituationDonchenko Soriano

After a loss

—

2-250%

After a win

2-0100%

4-267%

Camp length

SituationDonchenko Soriano

Typical camp100–180 days

2-0100%

Long layoff> 180 days

—

4-450%

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Daniil Donchenko

Punahele Soriano

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Donchenko11W–0L by finish

R1

R2

R3

R4

Soriano9W–2L by finish · 89% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

R4

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

20:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑8%·Donchenko

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑8%·Donchenko

C

44th

77%

+9

D

35th

69%

Goes the distance

Even

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Even

33%

35%

KO durability

↑6%·Donchenko

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

↑6%·Donchenko

A

78th

0%

+10

B

68th

6%

Submission defense

↑6%·Donchenko

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

↑6%·Donchenko

A

70th

0%

+11

B

59th

6%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Daniil Donchenko	Punahele Soriano
Wins
by KO / TKO	8(62%)	7(54%)
by submission	2(15%)	2(15%)
by decision	3(23%)	4(31%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	0(0%)	1(25%)
by submission	0(0%)	1(25%)
by decision	2(100%)	2(50%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Daniil Donchenko

vs

Punahele Soriano

67%

2 KO/TKO in 3 bouts

Knockout rate

33%

4 KO/TKO in 12 bouts

4

4.4 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

6

1.5 / 100 head

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

1

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

0

0.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

1

0.5 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Daniil DonchenkoFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Punahele SorianoFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Roman Kopylov3y 7mo ago
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · Jan 14, 2023 · R2 · 3:19
Last time submitted
vs Dustin Stoltzfus2y 9mo ago
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Dec 2, 2023 · R2 · 4:10

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Daniil Donchenko

—

< 2 bouts to R3

Punahele Soriano

109%

R3 vs R1 · 5 bouts reaching R3

Soriano lifts to 109% of round-1 output by round 3 (within fights reaching round 3). Donchenko hasn't reached the third round in enough UFC bouts to read a pace pattern yet.

Donchenko

Soriano ▲ BUILDSOutput / min

Faded points are drawn from a single bout that reached that round, so they’re less reliable than the solid points averaged over many fights.

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Donchenko

Sorianolanded / min

Takedown attempts

Donchenko

Sorianoattempts / min

Control time

Donchenko

Soriano% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Daniil Donchenko	10.8	9.3	3.0	0.21	22%	3
R1	Punahele Soriano	6.3	5.0	4.0	0.21	18%	11
R2	Daniil Donchenko	6.7	6.2	1.8	0.00	11%	2
R2	Punahele Soriano	6.5	4.3	3.8	0.21	38%	8
R3	Daniil Donchenko	6.8	6.8	3.6	0.00	0%	1
R3	Punahele Soriano	7.2	4.2	1.9	0.40	45%	5

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.