Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an advantage in this matchup — offense weighed against the opponent's defense. Tap any row to see the numbers behind it. Descriptive — not a prediction.

Diego Lopes

edge

Steve Garcia

Striking

Garcia ▸

Garcia out-strikes Lopes

Effective offense

B

69th

1.8

+19

A+

89th

2.6

Defense

F

21st

45%

+61

A

82nd

59%

KO power

B

11 KO

0.6 KD

+9

B

15 KO

0.8 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

Even

Wrestling stays neutral

Takedowns landed

C

42nd

1.0

Even

C

44th

1.0

Takedown accuracy

50%

57%

Takedown defense

A

70th

74%

Even

A

73rd

79%

Control time

D

34th

1.7 min

+16

C

50th

2.6 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

◂ Lopes

Lopes is the bigger submission threat on Garcia

Submission attempts

A

81st

1.1

+20

B

62nd

0.5

Sub win rate

B

64th

17%

1 sub

Even

C

56th

0%

0 subs

Submission defense

D

42nd

0%

Even

D

42nd

0%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

Even

Both finishing threats

Finish rate

B

63rd

67%

+12

A

75th

88%

KO durability

B

62nd

0%

+10

C

52nd

10%

Submission defense

D

42nd

0%

Even

D

42nd

0%

See full Finishes →

Pace

Garcia ▸

Garcia pushes the higher work rate over the fight

Work rate / min — full fight

5.1

5.7

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

5.2

6.8

Pace trend

-10%/rd

-23%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

Garcia ▸

Garcia is in better recent form than Lopes

Win rate (career)

67%

80%

After a win

67%

86%

Last 5

60%

100%

Win streakL1W5

See full Form →

Schedule

◂ Lopes

Lopes has faced the tougher schedule vs Garcia

Schedule strength

71%

35%

Win quality

54%

72%

Ranked opponents

6

2

Title-holder bouts

1

0

See full Schedule →

Activity

Even

Similar activity going in

Last bout

4mo

7mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

2

Even

2

Bouts, last 24 mo

5

4

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

Garcia ▸

Garcia 2" reach · Garcia 3 cm · Open-stance matchup

Diego LopesvsSteve Garcia

31

Age

3y

younger

34

5'11"

180cm

Height

1"

taller

6'0"

183cm

73"

184cm

Reach

2"

reach

75"

191cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Each edge weighs one fighter’s offense against the other’s defense in this matchup, not each fighter vs the division in isolation — so a strong defense reduces (not erases) the opposing threat. Tap a row for the percentiles behind it. Thin samples are dimmed; too little data reads “not enough data.”

Core metrics

The shape of the matchup at a glance — each fighter's career rates as a percentile within the division. Descriptive, not a prediction.

Diego LopesSteve Garcia

LopesPercentileGarcia

Striking/min3.835.39

Accuracy%47%49%

Defense%45%59%

Takedowns/150.90.9

TD defense%68%88%

Submissions/151.40.4

Career rate as a percentile within the featherweight (296 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Markets

Market comparison

Kalshi · updated 1h ago

Diego Lopes

Consensus

57%▼ 6

Best price to bet Lopes

Kalshi58¢Sportsbook-14056%

Steve Garcia

Consensus

43%▲ 4

Best price to bet Garcia

Kalshi43¢bestSportsbook+12044%

Lopes 57%43% Garcia

$442k vol · $374k OI$263k vol · $181k OI

Sportsbook

Method of victory

KO/TKO

SUB

DEC

Diego Lopes

24%+265

17%+423

17%+425

Steve Garcia

25%+250

3%+2450

15%+500

KO/TKO

Submission

Decision

Diego Lopes

24%+265

17%+423

17%+425

Steve Garcia

25%+250

3%+2450

15%+500

Total rounds

Line · 2.5

Over38%+145
Under62%-205

Goes the distance

Yes33%+185
No67%-250

UFC betting history

Career

LopesDiego Lopes

GarciaSteve Garcia

5-0100%

As favorite

5-183%

1-325%

As underdog

3-175%

Line movement

Win probability over time

tap to toggle

Notes

Consensus averages Kalshi’s real-money price with the sportsbook’s vig-free probability. “Best price” is the cheaper cost to back a fighter — lower = better value.

Sportsbook percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts.

Career splits

LopesDiego Lopes

Stat

GarciaSteve Garcia

3

0

KO / TKO

7

1

0

Submission

0

2

3

Decision

1

12:09

Avg fight time

6:02

Diego Lopes’s splits

vs Garcia

vs Orthodox

4-357%

vs Southpaw

1-0100%

vs Switch

1-0100%

vs Longer reach

0-0no data

vs Shorter reach

6-367%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile.

Steve Garcia’s splits

vs Lopes

vs Orthodox

4-180%

vs Southpaw

2-167%

vs Switch

2-0100%

vs Longer reach

0-10%

vs Shorter reach

8-189%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Diego LopesvsSteve Garcia

31

Age

3y

younger

34

5'11"

180cm

Height

1"

taller

6'0"

183cm

73"

184cm

Reach

2"

reach

75"

191cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense mapped against the other's defense — where one attacks meets where the other gets hit, across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

C

49th

+30

A

79th

Garcia holds a decisive striking edge (+30).

Attacking

Lopes’s offensevsGarcia’s defense

Where Lopes attacks (green = high volume) vs where Garcia gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Lopes’s green zones meeting Garcia’s red zones are the openings.

Diego LopesOffense

Head71%75th313
Body12%38th54
Leg16%63rd71

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Steve GarciaDefense

Head79%67th89
Body11%82nd12
Leg11%70th12

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Lopes — by position

69%Standing

Standing69%303
Clinch8%34
Ground23%101

Garcia — absorbed by position

66%Standing

Standing66%75
Clinch7%8
Ground27%30

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Lopes’s offensevsGarcia’s defense

Head

A

75th

40.1

+8

B

67th

28.0

Body

D

38th

8.4

+44

A

82nd

6.7

Leg

B

63rd

9.4

Even

B

70th

5.4

Garcia’s offensevsLopes’s defense

Head

A

84th

45.6

+68

F

17th

49.3

Body

B

59th

11.4

+23

A

81st

6.8

Leg

C

44th

7.1

Even

D

41st

9.0

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Diego Lopes	top 25% of division40.1	43%	well below average49.3	313
Head	Steve Garcia	top 16% of division45.6	42%	above division average28.0	221
Body	Diego Lopes	below division average8.4	61%	top 19% of division6.8	54
Body	Steve Garcia	above division average11.4	73%	top 18% of division6.7	47
Leg	Diego Lopes	above division average9.4	76%	below division average9.0	71
Leg	Steve Garcia	below division average7.1	89%	top 30% of division5.4	24

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.

UFC only

Diego Lopes

Steve Garcia

Each metric graded on the division — the bar leans toward whoever wins that part of the grappling exchange (longer + greener = a bigger edge).

Overall Grappling

Grappling

B

60th

Even

B

59th

Evenly matched grappling — no clear edge either way.

Takedowns

C

46th

1.0

Even

C

49th

1.0

Takedown accuracy

B

66th

50%

7/14

57%

4/7

Takedown defense

A

70th

74%

23/31

Even

A

73rd

79%

11/14

Submission threat

A

75th

1.1

+12

B

63rd

0.5

Control time

D

41st

1.7 min

+12

C

53rd

2.6 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Diego Lopes	Steve Garcia
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	1.07	1.04
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	50%7 / 14	57%4 / 7
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	74%23 / 31	79%11 / 14
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	1.18	0.52
Control time / 15 (min)career total	1.7 min12:43	2.6 min10:21
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	2.1 min15:04	6.2 min24:59

All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time. Accuracy under 8 career attempts is shown raw and ungraded — too small a sample to rate against the division.

Schedule Score

Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.

UFC only

Diego Lopes

67

Schedule Score

Steve Garcia

47

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

109 min

9 bouts

Octagon time

49 min

more

60 min

10 bouts

Schedule strength

71%

35%

Win quality

54%

72%

Ranked opponents

6

2

Title-holder bouts

1

0

Opponent quality distribution

every UFC bout, bucketed by who the opponent was at the time

Diego Lopes

9 bouts

2

1

Steve Garcia

10 bouts

1

2

3

Champion

Top-5

Top-15

Cross-div ranked

Contender-level

Established

Building

Unproven

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Diego Lopes	Steve Garcia
Champion	0-2	—
Top-5	1-1	1-0
Top-15	2-0	1-0
Cross-div ranked	1-0	1-0
Contender-level	1-0	1-0
Established	—	0-1
Building	1-0	2-0
Unproven	—	2-1

Diego Lopes — bouts

Steve Garcia — bouts

All figures are 0–100 ratings (shown as %), not percentages of anything literal. Schedule strength = the average quality of every UFC opponent faced (win or lose). Win quality = the average quality of the opponents actually beaten. The composite Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with win quality (35%). Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, falling back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. For fighters with limited UFC experience the headline is held toward a rookie baseline, so debut / low-sample fighters read lower than established names. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts (non-UFC fights dashed + tagged), current trajectory, and the level of opposition going into this matchup.

Diego Lopes

Steve Garcia

Lopes — last 5

recent → old

Garcia — last 5

recent → old

Last 5 record

3-2

5-0

Current streak

L1

W5

Ranked opps

4 of 5

2 of 5

Layoff

4 mo

8 mo

Finishing & durability

How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.

Diego Lopes

Steve Garcia

When their fights end

every UFC finish on the fight clock

Lopes4W–0L by finish · 75% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

Garcia7W–1L by finish

R1

R2

R3

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑6%·Lopes

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑6%·Lopes

A

78th

85%

+15

B

63rd

79%

Goes the distance

Both finishers

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Both finishers

29%

KO durability

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

Even

B

60th

6%

+8

B

68th

4%

Submission defense

↑4%·Lopes

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

↑4%·Lopes

B

65th

0%

+12

C

53rd

4%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Diego Lopes	Steve Garcia
Wins
by KO / TKO	11(41%)	15(79%)
by submission	12(44%)	0(0%)
by decision	4(15%)	4(21%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	2(25%)	1(20%)
by submission	0(0%)	1(20%)
by decision	6(75%)	3(60%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

Finish-time and round-by-round numbers are UFC-only and don’t change with this toggle.

KO history

UFC fights only — knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head, then when the last finish landed, and on whom.

Diego Lopes

vs

Steve Garcia

30%

3 KO/TKO in 10 bouts

Knockout rate

73%

8 KO/TKO in 11 bouts

5

1.6 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

8

3.6 / 100 head

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

1

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

0

0.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

5

5.6 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Diego LopesFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Steve GarciaFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Maheshate4 years ago
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka · Jun 11, 2022 · R1 · 1:14
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Pace & fade

How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.

UFC only

Diego Lopes

118%

R3 vs R1 · 5 bouts reaching R3

Steve Garcia

81%

R3 vs R1 · 2 bouts reaching R3

Both lean the same way, but Lopes leans harder: Lopes fades (-10% per round through round 3), Garcia fades (-23% per round through round 3). Within fights that reached round 3, Lopes lifts to 118% of round-1 output by round 3, Garcia 81%.

Lopes ▼ FADES

Garcia ▼ FADESOutput / min

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Lopes

Garcialanded / min

Takedown attempts

Lopes

Garciaattempts / min

Control time

Lopes

Garcia% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Diego Lopes	5.8	4.9	2.8	0.09	16%	9
R1	Steve Garcia	5.9	4.5	2.3	0.16	21%	10
R2	Diego Lopes	4.6	3.6	4.7	0.13	16%	6
R2	Steve Garcia	7.8	6.8	1.2	0.07	18%	5
R3	Diego Lopes	4.8	4.2	5.4	0.12	6%	5
R3	Steve Garcia	3.3	3.3	1.3	0.00	1%	2
R4	Diego Lopes	3.8	3.8	6.4	0.00	0%	2
R4	Steve Garcia	—	—	—	—	—	—
R5	Diego Lopes	3.4	1.7	6.4	0.40	12%	2
R5	Steve Garcia	—	—	—	—	—	—

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.