Bo Nickal vs Kyle Daukaus Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an advantage in this matchup — offense weighed against the opponent's defense. Tap any row to see the numbers behind it. Descriptive — not a prediction.

Bo Nickal

edge

Kyle Daukaus

Striking

◂ Nickal

Nickal out-strikes Daukaus

Effective offense

A

83rd

2.0

+11

A

71st

1.8

Defense

A

80th

59%

+42

D

39th

42%

KO power

C

3 KO

0.3 KD

+11

C

2 KO

0.3 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

◂ Nickal

Nickal has the bigger wrestling edge on Daukaus

Takedowns landed

A

79th

2.3

Even

A

72nd

2.0

Takedown accuracy

B

64th

47%

+37

D

27th

24%

Takedown defense

A+

90th

100%

+21

B

69th

77%

Control time

A

74th

4.5 min

+18

A+

92nd

6.4 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

Even

Both real submission threats

Submission attempts

A+

86th

1.6

+9

A

77th

1.0

Sub win rate

B

68th

40%

2 subs

Even

A

74th

50%

2 subs

Submission defense

C

44th

0%

Even

C

45th

0%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

Even

Both finishing threats

Finish rate

C

55th

80%

Even

C

54th

75%

KO durability

C

50th

17%

+9

D

41st

25%

Submission defense

C

44th

0%

Even

C

45th

0%

See full Finishes →

Pace

Daukaus ▸

Daukaus pushes the higher work rate over the fight

Work rate / min — full fight

5.2

6.4

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

5.8

6.9

Pace trend

-16%/rd

-5%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

Even

Comparable recent form

Win rate (career)

83%

50%

After a win

75%

33%

Last 5

80%

100%

Win streakW1W5

See full Form →

Schedule

Even

Comparable level of opposition

Schedule strength

38%

Even

37%

Win quality

57%

45%

Ranked opponents

2

Even

2

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Common opp (1)1-01-0

See full Schedule →

Activity

Daukaus ▸

Daukaus has fought more often lately than Nickal

Last bout

7mo

Even

7mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

1

2

Bouts, last 24 mo

3

2

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

Daukaus ▸

Daukaus 5 cm · Closed-stance matchup

Bo NickalvsKyle Daukaus

30

Age

3y

younger

33

6'1"

185cm

Height

2"

taller

6'3"

191cm

76"

193cm

Reach

Even

76"

193cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Each edge weighs one fighter’s offense against the other’s defense in this matchup, not each fighter vs the division in isolation — so a strong defense reduces (not erases) the opposing threat. Tap a row for the percentiles behind it. Thin samples are dimmed; too little data reads “not enough data.”

Core metrics

The shape of the matchup at a glance — each fighter's career rates as a percentile within the division. Descriptive, not a prediction.

Bo NickalKyle Daukaus

NickalPercentileDaukaus

Striking/min3.353.32

Accuracy%61%53%

Defense%59%42%

Takedowns/153.12.1

TD defense%100%82%

Submissions/152.52.1

Career rate as a percentile within the middleweight (347 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Markets

Market comparison

Kalshi · updated 13m ago

Bo Nickal

Consensus

74%▼ 1

Best price to bet Nickal

Kalshi74¢bestSportsbook-33074%

Kyle Daukaus

Consensus

27%▲ 2

Best price to bet Daukaus

Kalshi28¢Sportsbook+27026%best

Nickal 74%27% Daukaus

$132k vol · $90k OI$238k vol · $226k OI

Sportsbook

Method of victory

KO/TKO

SUB

DEC

Bo Nickal

28%+210

18%+395

26%+238

Kyle Daukaus

7%+1150

13%+550

9%+900

KO/TKO

Submission

Decision

Bo Nickal

28%+210

18%+395

26%+238

Kyle Daukaus

7%+1150

13%+550

9%+900

Total rounds

Line · 2.5

Over42%+124
Under58%-166

Goes the distance

Yes36%+162
No64%-220

UFC betting history

Career

NickalBo Nickal

DaukausKyle Daukaus

5-183%

As favorite

3-350%

—

As underdog

1-150%

Line movement

Win probability over time

tap to toggle

Notes

Consensus averages Kalshi’s real-money price with the sportsbook’s vig-free probability. “Best price” is the cheaper cost to back a fighter — lower = better value.

Sportsbook percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts.

Career splits

NickalBo Nickal

Stat

DaukausKyle Daukaus

2

1

KO / TKO

1

2

0

Submission

2

0

1

0

Decision

1

2

7:45

Avg fight time

7:34

Bo Nickal’s splits

vs Daukaus

vs Orthodox

5-0100%

vs Southpaw

0-10%

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

1-150%

vs Shorter reach

3-0100%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile.

Kyle Daukaus’s splits

vs Nickal

vs Orthodox

3-350%

vs Southpaw

1-150%

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

2-167%

vs Shorter reach

2-250%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Bo NickalvsKyle Daukaus

30

Age

3y

younger

33

6'1"

185cm

Height

2"

taller

6'3"

191cm

76"

193cm

Reach

Even

76"

193cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense mapped against the other's defense — where one attacks meets where the other gets hit, across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

A

73rd

+22

C

51st

Nickal has the striking edge (+22).

Attacking

Nickal’s offensevsDaukaus’s defense

Where Nickal attacks (green = high volume) vs where Daukaus gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Nickal’s green zones meeting Daukaus’s red zones are the openings.

Bo NickalOffense

Head61%58th95
Body21%62nd33
Leg17%66th27

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Kyle DaukausDefense

Head61%49th124
Body29%23rd59
Leg10%57th20

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Nickal — by position

84%Standing

Standing84%130
Clinch8%13
Ground8%12

Daukaus — absorbed by position

44%Standing

Standing44%90
Clinch23%47
Ground33%66

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Nickal’s offensevsDaukaus’s defense

Head

C

58th

29.8

+9

C

49th

31.3

Body

B

62nd

10.2

+39

F

23rd

12.5

Leg

B

66th

8.1

+9

C

57th

6.0

Daukaus’s offensevsNickal’s defense

Head

B

64th

31.8

+9

A

73rd

22.4

Body

C

45th

7.7

+12

D

33rd

10.8

Leg

C

54th

6.6

Even

C

47th

7.4

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Bo Nickal	above division average29.8	53%	top 27% of division22.4	95
Head	Kyle Daukaus	above division average31.8	43%	around division average31.3	137
Body	Bo Nickal	above division average10.2	75%	below division average10.8	33
Body	Kyle Daukaus	around division average7.7	71%	well below average12.5	25
Leg	Bo Nickal	above division average8.1	87%	around division average7.4	27
Leg	Kyle Daukaus	around division average6.6	86%	above division average6.0	24

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.

UFC only

Bo Nickal

Kyle Daukaus

Each metric graded on the division — the bar leans toward whoever wins that part of the grappling exchange (longer + greener = a bigger edge).

Overall Grappling

Grappling

A

74th

+11

B

63rd

Nickal has the grappling edge (+11).

Takedowns

B

69th

2.3

Even

B

65th

2.0

Takedown accuracy

B

64th

47%

7/15

+37

D

27th

24%

8/33

Takedown defense

A+

90th

100%

9/9

+21

B

69th

77%

10/13

Submission threat

A

81st

1.6

+9

A

72nd

1.0

Control time

B

65th

4.5 min

+17

A

82nd

6.4 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Bo Nickal	Kyle Daukaus
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	2.37	2.08
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	47%7 / 15	24%8 / 33
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	100%9 / 9	77%10 / 13
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	1.65	1.04
Control time / 15 (min)career total	4.5 min13:49	6.4 min25:57
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	1.0 min3:12	4.1 min16:29

All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time. Accuracy under 8 career attempts is shown raw and ungraded — too small a sample to rate against the division.

Common opponents

The single UFC opponent both fighters have faced. Reads as a directional signal, not a verdict.

Bo Nickal

Kyle Daukaus

Record vs common opponents

Even

1-0

1-0

1-0

1-0

Both won

Schedule Score

Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.

UFC only

Bo Nickal

45

Schedule Score

Kyle Daukaus

41

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

46 min

6 bouts

Octagon time

15 min

more

61 min

8 bouts

Schedule strength

38%

Even

37%

Win quality

57%

45%

Ranked opponents

2

Even

2

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Opponent quality distribution

every UFC bout, bucketed by who the opponent was at the time

Bo Nickal

6 bouts

1

2

Kyle Daukaus

9 bouts

1

3

1

2

Top-5

Top-15

Established

Building

Unproven

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Bo Nickal	Kyle Daukaus
Top-5	0-1	0-1
Top-15	1-0	1-1, 1 NC
Established	1-0	0-1
Building	1-0	1-1
Unproven	2-0	2-0

Bo Nickal — bouts

Kyle Daukaus — bouts

All figures are 0–100 ratings (shown as %), not percentages of anything literal. Schedule strength = the average quality of every UFC opponent faced (win or lose). Win quality = the average quality of the opponents actually beaten. The composite Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with win quality (35%). Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, falling back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. For fighters with limited UFC experience the headline is held toward a rookie baseline, so debut / low-sample fighters read lower than established names. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts (non-UFC fights dashed + tagged), current trajectory, and the level of opposition going into this matchup.

Bo Nickal

Kyle Daukaus

Nickal — last 5

recent → old

Daukaus — last 5

recent → old

WCFFC

KO R1

Patershuk

Jun ’24

WCFFC

SUB R3

Fallon

Feb ’24

WCFFC

DEC

Ellis

Sep ’23

Last 5 record

4-1

5-0

Current streak

W1

W5

Ranked opps

2 of 5

1 of 5

Layoff

7 mo

Even

7 mo

Finishing & durability

How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.

Bo Nickal

Kyle Daukaus

When their fights end

every UFC finish on the fight clock

Nickal4W–1L by finish

R1

R2

R3

Daukaus3W–2L by finish · every finish in R1

R1

R2

R3

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑6%·Nickal

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑6%·Nickal

B

63rd

88%

Even

C

58th

82%

Goes the distance

Both finishers

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Both finishers

11%

24%

KO durability

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

Even

C

42nd

11%

+12

C

54th

10%

Submission defense

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

Even

B

61st

0%

Even

B

63rd

0%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Bo Nickal	Kyle Daukaus
Wins
by KO / TKO	3(38%)	2(12%)
by submission	4(50%)	12(71%)
by decision	1(13%)	3(18%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	1(100%)	2(50%)
by submission	0(0%)	0(0%)
by decision	0(0%)	2(50%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

Finish-time and round-by-round numbers are UFC-only and don’t change with this toggle.

KO history

UFC fights only — knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head, then when the last finish landed, and on whom.

Bo Nickal

vs

Kyle Daukaus

25%

2 KO/TKO in 8 bouts

Knockout rate

11%

1 KO/TKO in 9 bouts

2

2.1 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

2

1.5 / 100 head

1

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

2

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

1

2.5 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

4

3.2 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Bo NickalFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Reinier de Ridder1y 1mo ago
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · May 3, 2025 · R2 · 1:53
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Kyle DaukausFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Eryk Anders3y 6mo ago
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 3, 2022 · R2 · 2:45
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Pace & fade

How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.

UFC only

Bo Nickal

75%

R3 vs R1 · 2 bouts reaching R3

Kyle Daukaus

112%

R3 vs R1 · 3 bouts reaching R3

Both lean the same way, but Daukaus leans harder: Daukaus fades (-5% per round through round 3), Nickal fades (-15% per round through round 3). Within fights that reached round 3, Nickal drops to 75% of round-1 output by round 3, Daukaus 112%.

Nickal ▼ FADES

Daukaus ▼ FADESOutput / min

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Nickal

Daukauslanded / min

Takedown attempts

Nickal

Daukausattempts / min

Control time

Nickal

Daukaus% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Bo Nickal	5.7	2.5	1.3	0.51	43%	6
R1	Kyle Daukaus	6.2	2.7	3.0	0.54	47%	8
R2	Bo Nickal	5.8	4.4	3.5	0.13	24%	4
R2	Kyle Daukaus	7.5	3.7	4.5	0.85	32%	4
R3	Bo Nickal	4.1	3.6	2.2	0.14	0%	2
R3	Kyle Daukaus	5.5	3.0	2.7	0.20	48%	3

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.