Diyar Nurgozhay vs Bruno Lopes Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Diyar Nurgozhay

edge

Bruno Lopes

Striking

◂ Nurgozhay

Nurgozhay out-strikes Lopes

Effective offense

A+

90th

2.7

+42

C

48th

1.2

Defense

A

76th

61%

+29

C

47th

54%

KO power

C

6 KO

0.0 KD

Even

C

6 KO

0.0 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

Lopes ▸

Lopes has the bigger wrestling edge on Nurgozhay (thin sample)

Takedowns landed

A

72nd

1.9

+14

A+

86th

2.9

Takedown accuracy

75%

23%

Takedown defense

78%

100%

Control time

D

38th

1.6 min

+50

A+

88th

6.0 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

Lopes ▸

Lopes is the bigger submission threat on Nurgozhay

Submission attempts

D

26th

0.0

Even

D

26th

0.0

Sub win rate

B

59th

18%

2 subs

+11

B

69th

36%

5 subs

Submission defense

D

33rd

15%

+16

C

49th

0%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

Even

Both hard to finish

Finish rate

D

33rd

0%

Even

D

33rd

0%

KO durability

B

61st

0%

+42

F

20th

67%

Submission defense

F

12th

67%

+31

C

43rd

0%

See full Finishes →

Pace

Even

Similar work rate over the fight

Work rate / min — full fight

5.8

Even

6.0

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

5.8

Even

6.0

See full Pace →

Form

Even

Comparable recent form

Win rate (career)

33%

Even

33%

After a win—0%

Last 5

60%

Even

60%

Win streakW1L2

See full Form →

Schedule

Even

Comparable level of opposition

Schedule strength

8%

44%

Win quality

47%

13%

Ranked opponents

0

1

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

See full Schedule →

Activity

◂ Nurgozhay

Nurgozhay has fought more often lately than Lopes

Last bout

5mo

4mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

2

1

Bouts, last 24 mo

4

Even

4

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

◂ Nurgozhay

Nurgozhay 4y younger · Open-stance matchup

Diyar NurgozhayvsBruno Lopes

29

Age

4y

younger

33

6'2"

188cm

Height

Even

6'2"

188cm

74"

188cm

Reach

0"

reach

75"

189cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

On the bubbleBruno Lopes 40% cut risk · 2-fight skid

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Diyar NurgozhayBruno Lopes

Percentile

Striking/min4.522.88

Accuracy%59%43%

Defense%61%54%

Takedowns/151.41.9

TD defense%80%100%

Submissions/150.00.0

Career rate as a percentile within the light heavyweight (227 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Pre-UFC opposition

non-UFC slate for each fighter, from opponents’ full pro records

Comparable level of opposition — both faced slates around .567 opponent win rate.

Diyar Nurgozhay

Moderate

Opponents' combined record

89-71-1

.556 win rate

Winning-record opponents

4 of 9

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

9

all opponents have records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

Bruno Lopes

Moderate

Opponents' combined record

120-88-1

.577 win rate

Winning-record opponents

8 of 12

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

12

all opponents have records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

Markets

Market comparison

Kalshi · updated 13m ago

Diyar Nurgozhay

Consensus

59%▲ 1

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet Nurgozhay

Kalshi60¢bestSportsbook-15558%

Bruno Lopes

Consensus

41%flat

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet Lopes

Kalshi41¢bestSportsbook+13042%

Nurgozhay 59%41% Lopes

$120k vol · $117k OI$34k vol · $32k OI

More Kalshi markets · yes-price

Fight goes the distance32¢

Ends under1.5 41¢2.5 59¢

Nurgozhay wins by

KO 43¢Sub 3¢Dec 16¢

Lopes wins by

KO 12¢Sub 17¢Dec 14¢

Draw / No contest 1¢

Sportsbook

Method of victory

KO/TKO

SUB

DEC

Diyar Nurgozhay

42%+135

4%+2400

16%+525

Bruno Lopes

8%+1150

16%+500

15%+567

KO/TKO

Submission

Decision

Diyar Nurgozhay

42%+135

4%+2400

16%+525

Bruno Lopes

8%+1150

16%+500

15%+567

Total rounds

Line · 2.5

Over38%+150
Under62%-189

Goes the distance

Yes30%+245
No70%-223

UFC betting history

Career

NurgozhayDiyar Nurgozhay

LopesBruno Lopes

0-10%

As pick'em

—

Line movement

Win probability over time

Kalshi61%60%1 pt

Sportsbook57%58%1 pt

Notes

Consensus averages Kalshi’s real-money price with the sportsbook’s vig-free probability. “Best price” is the cheaper cost to back a fighter — lower = better value.

Sportsbook percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

NurgozhayDiyar Nurgozhay

Stat

LopesBruno Lopes

0

KO / TKO

0

2

0

2

Submission

0

1

0

Decision

1

0

8:04

Avg fight time

8:38

Diyar Nurgozhay’s splits

vs Lopes

vs Southpaw

0-0no data

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Shorter reach

0-0no data

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Bruno Lopes’s splits

vs Nurgozhay

vs Orthodox

1-233%

vs Southpaw

0-0no data

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

1-233%

vs Shorter reach

0-0no data

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Diyar NurgozhayvsBruno Lopes

29

Age

4y

younger

33

6'2"

188cm

Height

Even

6'2"

188cm

74"

188cm

Reach

0"

reach

75"

189cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

A

72nd

+24

C

48th

Nurgozhay has the striking edge (+24).

Attacking

Nurgozhay’s offensevsLopes’s defense

Where Nurgozhay attacks (green = high volume) vs where Lopes gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Nurgozhay’s green zones meeting Lopes’s red zones are the openings.

Diyar NurgozhayOffense

Head33%50th39
Body40%86th47
Leg27%75th32

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Bruno LopesDefense

Head50%42nd55
Body28%24th31
Leg23%30th25

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Nurgozhay — by position

88%Standing

Standing88%104
Clinch5%6
Ground7%8

Lopes — absorbed by position

70%Standing

Standing70%78
Clinch14%15
Ground16%18

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Nurgozhay’s offensevsLopes’s defense

Head

C

50th

29.3

+8

D

42nd

34.7

Body

A+

86th

16.7

+62

F

24th

13.2

Leg

A

75th

12.4

+44

D

30th

10.8

Lopes’s offensevsNurgozhay’s defense

Head

C

47th

28.1

Even

C

46th

32.9

Body

B

59th

9.9

Even

C

53rd

9.4

Leg

C

52nd

7.4

Even

C

47th

8.7

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Diyar Nurgozhay	around division average29.3	41%	around division average32.9	39
Head	Bruno Lopes	around division average28.1	39%	below division average34.7	37
Body	Diyar Nurgozhay	top 14% of division16.7	72%	around division average9.4	47
Body	Bruno Lopes	above division average9.9	71%	well below average13.2	17
Leg	Diyar Nurgozhay	top 25% of division12.4	97%	around division average8.7	32
Leg	Bruno Lopes	around division average7.4	42%	below division average10.8	10

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Diyar Nurgozhay

Bruno Lopes

Overall Grappling

Grappling

B

61st

Even

B

60th

Evenly matched grappling — no clear edge either way.

Takedowns

B

67th

1.9

Even

A

74th

2.9

Takedown accuracy

75%

3/4

D

33rd

23%

5/22

Takedown defense

B

65th

78%

7/9

100%

3/3

Submission threat

B

63rd

0.0

Even

B

62nd

0.0

Control time

C

49th

1.6 min

+23

A

73rd

6.0 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Diyar Nurgozhay	Bruno Lopes
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	1.93	2.95
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	75%3 / 4	23%5 / 22
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	78%7 / 9	100%3 / 3
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.00	0.00
Control time / 15 (min)career total	1.6 min2:35	6.0 min10:19
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	2.4 min3:55	1.3 min2:15

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Diyar Nurgozhay

29

Schedule Score

Bruno Lopes

32

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

24 min

3 bouts

Octagon time

2 min

more

26 min

3 bouts

Schedule strength

8%

44%

Win quality

47%

13%

Ranked opponents

0

1

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Diyar Nurgozhay	Bruno Lopes
Top-5	—	0-1
Ranked 6–15	—	0-1
Unproven	1-2	1-0

Diyar Nurgozhay — bouts

Bruno Lopes — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Diyar Nurgozhay

Bruno Lopes

Nurgozhay — last 5

recent → old

WUAE

KO R1

Sordi

May ’24

Lopes — last 5

recent → old

WLFA

SUB R2

Brigagao

Jan ’24

Last 5 record

3-2

Even

3-2

Current streak

W1

L2

Ranked opps

0 of 5

1 of 5

Layoff

5 mo

4 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Diyar Nurgozhay

Bruno Lopes

Post-result bounce

SituationNurgozhay Lopes

After a loss

1-150%

0-10%

After a win

—

0-10%

Camp length

SituationNurgozhay Lopes

Typical camp100–180 days

0-10%

Long layoff> 180 days

1-0100%

0-10%

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Diyar Nurgozhay

Bruno Lopes

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Nurgozhay7W–2L by finish · every finish in R1

R1

R2

R3

Lopes10W–2L by finish · 70% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑6%·Lopes

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑6%·Lopes

D

30th

73%

Even

D

37th

79%

Goes the distance

Both finishers

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Both finishers

23%

18%

KO durability

↑18%·Nurgozhay

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

↑18%·Nurgozhay

A

82nd

0%

+33

C

49th

18%

Submission defense

↑15%·Lopes

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

↑15%·Lopes

D

40th

15%

+29

B

69th

0%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Diyar Nurgozhay	Bruno Lopes
Wins
by KO / TKO	6(55%)	6(43%)
by submission	2(18%)	5(36%)
by decision	3(27%)	3(21%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	0(0%)	3(100%)
by submission	2(100%)	0(0%)
by decision	0(0%)	0(0%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Diyar Nurgozhay

vs

Bruno Lopes

25%

1 KO/TKO in 4 bouts

Knockout rate

20%

1 KO/TKO in 5 bouts

0

0.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

0

0.0 / 100 head

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

3

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

2

4.7 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

2

3.6 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Diyar NurgozhayFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
vs Uran Satybaldiev11 months ago
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Aug 23, 2025 · R1 · 2:45

Bruno LopesFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Navajo Stirling4 months ago
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Mar 28, 2026 · R2 · 4:05
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Diyar Nurgozhay

—

< 2 bouts to R3

Bruno Lopes

—

< 2 bouts to R3

Neither fighter has reached the third round in enough UFC bouts to read a reliable pace pattern — most of their fights end early. The round-by-round pace below is shown for what rounds there are.

Nurgozhay

LopesOutput / min

Faded points are drawn from a single bout that reached that round, so they’re less reliable than the solid points averaged over many fights.

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Nurgozhay

Lopeslanded / min

Takedown attempts

Nurgozhay

Lopesattempts / min

Control time

Nurgozhay

Lopes% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Diyar Nurgozhay	5.0	4.5	2.7	0.08	5%	3
R1	Bruno Lopes	5.0	1.9	4.6	0.59	33%	3
R2	Diyar Nurgozhay	6.6	4.5	3.2	0.31	29%	2
R2	Bruno Lopes	6.9	3.2	5.5	0.77	35%	2
R3	Diyar Nurgozhay	6.9	6.2	2.6	0.20	2%	1
R3	Bruno Lopes	9.8	2.4	1.4	1.60	65%	1

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.