Jeremiah Wells vs Myktybek Orolbai Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Jeremiah Wells

edge

Myktybek Orolbai

Striking

Even

Even striking exchange

Effective offense

C

45th

1.1

+16

B

61st

1.4

Defense

B

63rd

48%

+10

C

53rd

51%

KO power

C

5 KO

0.3 KD

Even

C

7 KO

0.3 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

Even

Both control well

Takedowns landed

A+

86th

3.1

+13

A+

100th

8.8

Takedown accuracy

B

63rd

47%

+19

A

82nd

59%

Takedown defense

D

38th

50%

+9

D

29th

40%

Control time

A+

95th

8.0 min

Even

A+

95th

8.0 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

Even

Both real submission threats

Submission attempts

A

85th

1.3

+25

B

60th

0.5

Sub win rate

A

71st

31%

4 subs

Even

A

76th

38%

6 subs

Submission defense

D

37th

6%

Even

C

43rd

0%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

Even

Both finishing threats

Finish rate

C

53rd

60%

Even

C

53rd

60%

KO durability

B

61st

0%

Even

B

61st

0%

Submission defense

D

30th

14%

+9

D

40th

0%

See full Finishes →

Pace

Orolbai ▸

Orolbai pushes the higher work rate over the fight

Work rate / min — full fight

5.7

7.8

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

6.0

8.5

Pace trend

-7%/rd

-9%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

Orolbai ▸

Orolbai is in better recent form than Wells

Win rate (career)

71%

83%

After a win

75%

Even

75%

Last 5

60%

80%

Win streakW1W3

See full Form →

Schedule

Orolbai ▸

Orolbai has faced the tougher schedule vs Wells

Schedule strength

20%

31%

Win quality

59%

73%

Ranked opponents

0

Even

0

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

See full Schedule →

Activity

Orolbai ▸

Orolbai is fresher and more active than Wells

Last bout

8mo

4mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

1

2

Bouts, last 24 mo

1

4

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

Orolbai ▸

Orolbai 3 cm · Orolbai 11y younger · Switch-stance wrinkle

Jeremiah WellsvsMyktybek Orolbai

39

Age

11y

younger

28

5'9"

175cm

Height

1"

taller

5'10"

178cm

74"

188cm

Reach

Even

74"

188cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Jeremiah WellsMyktybek Orolbai

Percentile

Striking/min2.352.78

Accuracy%46%50%

Defense%48%51%

Takedowns/153.18.8

TD defense%50%40%

Submissions/151.30.5

Career rate as a percentile within the welterweight (443 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Markets

UFC betting history

Career

WellsJeremiah Wells

OrolbaiMyktybek Orolbai

1-150%

As pick'em

1-0100%

Notes

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

WellsJeremiah Wells

Stat

OrolbaiMyktybek Orolbai

2

0

KO / TKO

1

0

1

Submission

2

0

2

1

Decision

2

1

9:47

Avg fight time

10:16

Jeremiah Wells’s splits

vs Orolbai

vs Southpaw

0-0no data

vs Switch

2-0100%

vs Longer reach

4-267%

vs Shorter reach

1-0100%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Myktybek Orolbai’s splits

vs Wells

vs Orthodox

4-0100%

vs Southpaw

1-150%

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

2-0100%

vs Shorter reach

3-175%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Jeremiah WellsvsMyktybek Orolbai

39

Age

11y

younger

28

5'9"

175cm

Height

1"

taller

5'10"

178cm

74"

188cm

Reach

Even

74"

188cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

C

51st

Even

C

56th

Evenly matched striking — no clear edge either way.

Attacking

Wells’s offensevsOrolbai’s defense

Where Wells attacks (green = high volume) vs where Orolbai gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Wells’s green zones meeting Orolbai’s red zones are the openings.

Jeremiah WellsOffense

Head83%55th133
Body15%38th24
Leg2%31st4

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Myktybek OrolbaiDefense

Head61%54th101
Body20%52nd34
Leg19%44th31

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Wells — by position

53%Standing

Standing53%85
Clinch3%5
Ground44%71

Orolbai — absorbed by position

73%Standing

Standing73%122
Clinch11%19
Ground15%25

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Wells’s offensevsOrolbai’s defense

Head

C

55th

29.1

Even

C

54th

28.6

Body

D

38th

7.0

+15

C

52nd

9.2

Leg

D

31st

3.8

+13

C

44th

7.7

Orolbai’s offensevsWells’s defense

Head

B

59th

30.3

+20

A

79th

19.9

Body

D

39th

7.1

+23

B

62nd

8.0

Leg

C

50th

6.5

+21

A

71st

4.6

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Jeremiah Wells	above division average29.1	42%	top 21% of division19.9	133
Head	Myktybek Orolbai	above division average30.3	45%	around division average28.6	128
Body	Jeremiah Wells	below division average7.0	83%	above division average8.0	24
Body	Myktybek Orolbai	below division average7.1	71%	around division average9.2	22
Leg	Jeremiah Wells	below division average3.8	50%	top 29% of division4.6	4
Leg	Myktybek Orolbai	around division average6.5	75%	below division average7.7	21

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Jeremiah Wells

Myktybek Orolbai

Overall Grappling

Grappling

B

69th

Even

A

72nd

Evenly matched grappling — no clear edge either way.

Takedowns

A

78th

3.1

+20

A+

98th

8.8

Takedown accuracy

B

63rd

47%

14/30

+19

A

82nd

59%

36/61

Takedown defense

D

38th

50%

7/14

+9

D

29th

40%

4/10

Submission threat

A

80th

1.3

+16

B

64th

0.5

Control time

A+

86th

8.0 min

Even

A

85th

8.0 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Jeremiah Wells	Myktybek Orolbai
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	3.114	8.836
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	47%14 / 30	59%36 / 61
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	50%7 / 14	40%4 / 10
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	1.36	0.52
Control time / 15 (min)career total	8.0 min36:22	8.0 min32:59
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	2.1 min9:26	1.4 min5:39

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Jeremiah Wells

36

Schedule Score

Myktybek Orolbai

46

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

69 min

7 bouts

Octagon time

7 min

more

62 min

6 bouts

Schedule strength

20%

31%

Win quality

59%

73%

Ranked opponents

0

Even

0

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Jeremiah Wells	Myktybek Orolbai
Top-15	—	1-0
Cross-div ranked	—	2-0
Established	1-0	—
Building	3-2	1-1
Unproven	1-0	1-0

Jeremiah Wells — bouts

Myktybek Orolbai — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Jeremiah Wells

Myktybek Orolbai

Wells — last 5

recent → old

Orolbai — last 5

recent → old

Last 5 record

3-2

4-1

Current streak

W1

W3

Ranked opps

0 of 5

Even

0 of 5

Layoff

8 mo

4 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Jeremiah Wells

Myktybek Orolbai

Post-result bounce

SituationWells Orolbai

After a loss

1-150%

1-0100%

After a win

3-175%

Camp length

SituationWells Orolbai

Typical camp100–180 days

1-150%

3-175%

Long layoff> 180 days

3-175%

1-0100%

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Jeremiah Wells

Myktybek Orolbai

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Wells9W–1L by finish

R1

R2

R3

R4

Orolbai13W–0L by finish · 69% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

R4

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

20:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑12%·Orolbai

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑12%·Orolbai

D

41st

69%

+21

B

62nd

81%

Goes the distance

Even

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Even

41%

28%

KO durability

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

Even

A+

86th

0%

Even

A+

86th

0%

Submission defense

↑6%·Orolbai

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

↑6%·Orolbai

C

45th

6%

+19

B

65th

0%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Jeremiah Wells	Myktybek Orolbai
Wins
by KO / TKO	5(38%)	7(44%)
by submission	4(31%)	6(38%)
by decision	4(31%)	3(19%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	0(0%)	0(0%)
by submission	1(25%)	0(0%)
by decision	3(75%)	2(100%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Jeremiah Wells

vs

Myktybek Orolbai

29%

2 KO/TKO in 7 bouts

Knockout rate

17%

1 KO/TKO in 6 bouts

2

1.5 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

2

1.6 / 100 head

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

2

4.2 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

1

1.0 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Jeremiah WellsFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
vs Carlston Harris2y 11mo ago
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font · Aug 5, 2023 · R3 · 1:50

Myktybek OrolbaiFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Jeremiah Wells

105%

R3 vs R1 · 4 bouts reaching R3

Myktybek Orolbai

79%

R3 vs R1 · 3 bouts reaching R3

No clear cardio edge — Wells fades (-7% per round through round 3) and Orolbai fades (-9% per round through round 3). Within fights that reached round 3, Wells lifts to 105% of round-1 output by round 3, Orolbai 79%.

Wells ▼ FADES

Orolbai ▼ FADESOutput / min

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Wells

Orolbailanded / min

Takedown attempts

Wells

Orolbaiattempts / min

Control time

Wells

Orolbai% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Jeremiah Wells	5.9	1.9	1.2	0.58	56%	7
R1	Myktybek Orolbai	7.8	2.9	2.7	0.91	54%	6
R2	Jeremiah Wells	6.2	3.5	1.5	0.20	53%	5
R2	Myktybek Orolbai	9.2	3.0	2.6	1.25	60%	4
R3	Jeremiah Wells	5.1	1.8	1.2	0.48	47%	4
R3	Myktybek Orolbai	6.4	2.2	2.8	0.80	45%	3

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.