Josiah Harrell vs Elves Brener Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Josiah Harrell

edge

Elves Brener

Striking

Brener ▸

Brener out-strikes Harrell (thin sample)

Effective offense

C

46th

1.2

+38

A

84th

2.2

Defense

F

3rd

29%

+19

F

23rd

50%

KO power

C

6 KO

0.0 KD

Even

C

3 KO

0.3 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

Even

Wrestling stays neutral (thin sample)

Takedowns landed

F

9th

0.0

+31

D

41st

1.0

Takedown accuracy

0%

17%

Takedown defense

0%

76%

Control time

F

3rd

0.1 min

+22

D

25th

1.2 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

Brener ▸

Brener is the bigger submission threat on Harrell (thin sample)

Submission attempts

F

18th

0.0

Even

F

18th

0.0

Sub win rate

A

73rd

36%

4 subs

+19

A+

92nd

69%

11 subs

Submission defense

C

52nd

0%

Even

C

52nd

0%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

Even

Both are heavy finishers — Harrell by KO (10 of 11 wins), Brener by submission (14 of 16).

Finish rate (of wins)

91% (10/11)

Even

88% (14/16)

By KO/TKO

6

3

By submission

4

11

Avg finish round

R1.9 avg finish

R1.7 avg finish

See full Finishes →

Pace

Brener ▸

Brener pushes the higher work rate over the fight (thin sample)

Work rate / min — full fight

4.3

6.3

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

4.3

6.0

Pace trend—+8%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

◂ Harrell

Harrell is in better recent form than Brener (thin sample)

Win rate (career)

0%

50%

After a win—67%

Last 5

80%

40%

Win streakL1L3

See full Form →

Schedule

Even

Comparable level of opposition (thin sample)

Schedule strength

15%

28%

Win quality

36%

39%

Ranked opponents

0

1

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

See full Schedule →

Activity

◂ Harrell

Harrell is fresher and more active than Brener

Last bout

6mo

13mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

1

0

Bouts, last 24 mo

1

Even

1

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

Brener ▸

Brener 4" reach · Brener 8 cm · Open-stance matchup

Josiah HarrellvsElves Brener

27

Age

1y

younger

28

5'7"

170cm

Height

3"

taller

5'10"

178cm

68"

173cm

Reach

4"

reach

72"

183cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

On the bubbleElves Brener 40% cut risk · 3-fight skid

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Josiah HarrellElves Brener

Percentile

Striking/min2.324.76

Accuracy%50%47%

Defense%29%50%

Takedowns/150.01.0

TD defense%0%76%

Submissions/150.00.0

Career rate as a percentile within the lightweight (426 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Pre-UFC opposition

non-UFC slate for Josiah Harrell, from opponents’ full pro records

Josiah Harrell

Moderate

Opponents' combined record

111-83-4

.572 win rate

Winning-record opponents

6 of 11

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

11

all opponents have records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

Markets

UFC betting history

Career

HarrellJosiah Harrell

BrenerElves Brener

Notes

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

HarrellJosiah Harrell

Stat

BrenerElves Brener

—

1

KO / TKO

2

1

—

0

Submission

0

—

0

Decision

1

2

3:01

Avg fight time

12:39

Josiah Harrell’s splits

vs Brener

vs Orthodox

0-0no data

vs Southpaw

0-10%

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Shorter reach

0-0no data

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Elves Brener’s splits

vs Harrell

vs Orthodox

3-350%

vs Southpaw

0-0no data

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

1-233%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Josiah HarrellvsElves Brener

27

Age

1y

younger

28

5'7"

170cm

Height

3"

taller

5'10"

178cm

68"

173cm

Reach

4"

reach

72"

183cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

D

34th

+17

C

51st

Brener has the striking edge (+17).

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Harrell’s offensevsBrener’s defense

Head

C

52nd

28.7

+39

F

12th

52.6

Body

B

58th

10.4

+38

F

20th

15.2

Leg

B

61st

8.4

Even

C

56th

6.8

Brener’s offensevsHarrell’s defense

Head

A

74th

36.9

+37

D

37th

36.7

Body

B

68th

12.3

+39

D

28th

12.7

Leg

A

85th

13.5

+53

D

32nd

9.7

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Josiah Harrell	around division average28.7	17%	below division average36.7	1
Head	Elves Brener	top 26% of division36.9	38%	bottom of the division52.6	207
Body	Josiah Harrell	above division average10.4	60%	well below average12.7	3
Body	Elves Brener	above division average12.3	64%	well below average15.2	69
Leg	Josiah Harrell	above division average8.4	100%	below division average9.7	3
Leg	Elves Brener	top 15% of division13.5	84%	above division average6.8	85

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Josiah Harrell

Elves Brener

Overall Grappling

Grappling

B

59th

+14

C

45th

Harrell has the grappling edge (+14).

Takedowns

B

60th

0.0

+9

C

51st

1.0

Takedown accuracy

0%

0/2

F

21st

17%

5/30

Takedown defense

0%

0/2

A

70th

76%

19/25

Submission threat

B

64th

0.0

+20

C

44th

0.0

Control time

C

52nd

0.1 min

+15

D

37th

1.2 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Josiah Harrell	Elves Brener
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	0.00	1.05
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	0%0 / 2	17%5 / 30
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	0%0 / 2	76%19 / 25
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.00	0.00
Control time / 15 (min)career total	0.1 min0:01	1.2 min6:08
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	1.7 min0:21	2.7 min13:39

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Josiah Harrell

28

Schedule Score

Elves Brener

35

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

3 min

1 bout

Octagon time

73 min

more

76 min

6 bouts

Schedule strength

15%

28%

Win quality

36%

39%

Ranked opponents

0

1

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Josiah Harrell	Elves Brener
Ranked 6–15	—	0-1
Established	—	1-2
Building	0-1	1-0
Unproven	—	1-0

Josiah Harrell — bouts

L vs Jacobe Smith15
Feb 21, 2026 · Building

Elves Brener — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Josiah Harrell

Elves Brener

Harrell — last 5

recent → old

WLFA

KO R3

Dosmatov

Jan ’26

WOCL

DEC

Gennrich

Aug ’25

WOCL

SUB R1

Guillard

May ’25

WOCL

KO R2

Parks

Mar ’25

Brener — last 5

recent → old

Last 5 record

4-1

2-3

Current streak

L1

L3

Ranked opps

0 of 5

1 of 5

Layoff

7 mo

13 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Josiah Harrell

Elves Brener

Post-result bounce

SituationHarrell Brener

After a loss

—

0-20%

After a win

—

2-167%

Camp length

SituationHarrell Brener

Short turnaround< 100 days

—

0-10%

Typical camp100–180 days

—

2-0100%

Long layoff> 180 days

—

0-20%

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Josiah Harrell

Elves Brener

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Harrell10W–1L by finish

R1

R2

R3

Brener14W–1L by finish · 64% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

Even

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

Even

B

62nd

91%

Even

B

60th

88%

Goes the distance

Both finishers

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Both finishers

8%

32%

KO durability

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

Even

C

55th

8%

+13

B

68th

5%

Submission defense

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

Even

A

70th

0%

Even

A

72nd

0%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Josiah Harrell	Elves Brener
Wins
by KO / TKO	6(55%)	3(19%)
by submission	4(36%)	11(69%)
by decision	1(9%)	2(13%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	1(100%)	1(17%)
by submission	0(0%)	0(0%)
by decision	0(0%)	5(83%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Josiah Harrell

vs

Elves Brener

0%

0 KO/TKO in 1 bout

Knockout rate

33%

2 KO/TKO in 6 bouts

0

0.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

2

1.0 / 100 head

1

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

1

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

0

0.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

2

0.6 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Josiah HarrellFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Jacobe Smith6 months ago
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Feb 21, 2026 · R1 · 3:01
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Elves BrenerFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Joel Alvarez2y 1mo ago
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · Aug 3, 2024 · R3 · 3:36
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Josiah Harrell

—

< 2 bouts to R3

Elves Brener

110%

R3 vs R1 · 5 bouts reaching R3

Brener lifts to 110% of round-1 output by round 3 (within fights reaching round 3). Harrell hasn't reached the third round in enough UFC bouts to read a pace pattern yet.

Not enough shared rounds with per-round data to plot a comparable pace curve — at least one fighter rarely sees the later rounds.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Josiah Harrell	4.3	2.3	10.9	0.66	1%	1
R1	Elves Brener	6.0	3.8	4.8	0.59	10%	6
R2	Josiah Harrell	—	—	—	—	—	—
R2	Elves Brener	6.0	5.5	6.5	0.16	2%	5
R3	Josiah Harrell	—	—	—	—	—	—
R3	Elves Brener	6.9	5.2	6.6	0.41	12%	5

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.