John Castaneda vs Alatengheili Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

John Castaneda

edge

Alatengheili

Striking

◂ Castaneda

Castaneda out-strikes Alatengheili

Effective offense

A+

91st

2.5

+63

D

28th

0.9

Defense

D

32nd

54%

Even

D

39th

57%

KO power

C

8 KO

0.4 KD

+15

D

5 KO

0.1 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

Even

Both control well

Takedowns landed

C

55th

1.4

+10

B

64th

1.7

Takedown accuracy

C

57th

39%

Even

B

64th

44%

Takedown defense

A

72nd

78%

Even

B

67th

75%

Control time

C

49th

2.4 min

Even

C

44th

2.1 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

◂ Castaneda

Castaneda is the bigger submission threat on Alatengheili

Submission attempts

D

41st

0.1

+22

F

19th

0.0

Sub win rate

B

69th

29%

6 subs

Even

B

62nd

18%

3 subs

Submission defense

D

41st

0%

Even

D

41st

4%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

Even

Both hard to finish

Finish rate

D

41st

50%

+12

D

29th

20%

KO durability

D

37th

13%

+14

C

51st

0%

Submission defense

D

41st

0%

Even

D

41st

0%

See full Finishes →

Pace

◂ Castaneda

Castaneda pushes the higher work rate over the fight

Work rate / min — full fight

6.7

4.2

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

6.1

3.4

Pace trend

+16%/rd

+30%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

Alatengheili ▸

Alatengheili is in better recent form than Castaneda

Win rate (career)

50%

63%

After a win

50%

40%

Last 5

50%

60%

Win streak—L1

See full Form →

Schedule

Even

Comparable level of opposition

Schedule strength

28%

27%

Win quality

54%

41%

Ranked opponents

1

2

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Common opp (1)0-10-1

See full Schedule →

Activity

◂ Castaneda

Castaneda is fresher and more active than Alatengheili

Last bout

5mo

16mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

1

0

Bouts, last 24 mo

2

1

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

◂ Castaneda

Castaneda 5" reach · Castaneda 5 cm · Switch-stance wrinkle

John CastanedavsAlatengheili

34

Age

Even

34

5'7"

170cm

Height

2"

taller

5'5"

165cm

71"

180cm

Reach

5"

reach

67"

169cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

On the bubbleJohn Castaneda 38% cut risk · 2-fight skid

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

John CastanedaAlatengheili

Percentile

Striking/min4.952.82

Accuracy%51%32%

Defense%54%57%

Takedowns/151.51.7

TD defense%75%75%

Submissions/150.10.0

Career rate as a percentile within the bantamweight (244 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Markets

UFC betting history

Career

CastanedaJohn Castaneda

AlatengheiliAlatengheili

—

As pick'em

1-0100%

Notes

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

CastanedaJohn Castaneda

Stat

AlatengheiliAlatengheili

1

KO / TKO

1

0

1

0

Submission

0

2

3

Decision

4

3

12:36

Avg fight time

13:13

John Castaneda’s splits

vs Alatengheili

vs Southpaw

0-0no data

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

1-0100%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Alatengheili’s splits

vs Castaneda

vs Orthodox

5-183%

vs Southpaw

0-10%

vs Shorter reach

1-0100%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

John CastanedavsAlatengheili

34

Age

Even

34

5'7"

170cm

Height

2"

taller

5'5"

165cm

71"

180cm

Reach

5"

reach

67"

169cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

C

56th

+24

D

33rd

Castaneda has the striking edge (+24).

Attacking

Castaneda’s offensevsAlatengheili’s defense

Where Castaneda attacks (green = high volume) vs where Alatengheili gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Castaneda’s green zones meeting Alatengheili’s red zones are the openings.

John CastanedaOffense

Head57%77th341
Body16%64th94
Leg27%94th164

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

AlatengheiliDefense

Head59%26th367
Body22%20th135
Leg19%18th117

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Castaneda — by position

90%Standing

Standing90%540
Clinch6%38
Ground4%21

Alatengheili — absorbed by position

92%Standing

Standing92%572
Clinch4%24
Ground4%23

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Castaneda’s offensevsAlatengheili’s defense

Head

A

77th

40.6

+51

D

26th

43.2

Body

B

64th

11.8

+45

F

20th

15.4

Leg

A+

94th

17.6

+76

F

18th

13.0

Alatengheili’s offensevsCastaneda’s defense

Head

C

45th

28.8

+24

F

21st

47.2

Body

C

49th

9.4

+25

F

24th

14.1

Leg

C

43rd

6.4

+28

F

15th

13.9

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	John Castaneda	top 23% of division40.6	42%	well below average47.2	341
Head	Alatengheili	around division average28.8	26%	well below average43.2	223
Body	John Castaneda	above division average11.8	65%	well below average14.1	94
Body	Alatengheili	around division average9.4	61%	well below average15.4	71
Leg	John Castaneda	top 6% of division17.6	80%	well below average13.9	164
Leg	Alatengheili	below division average6.4	77%	well below average13.0	46

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

John Castaneda

Alatengheili

Overall Grappling

Grappling

C

57th

Even

C

57th

Evenly matched grappling — no clear edge either way.

Takedowns

C

55th

1.4

+9

B

63rd

1.7

Takedown accuracy

C

57th

39%

11/28

Even

B

64th

44%

14/32

Takedown defense

A

72nd

78%

18/23

Even

B

67th

75%

9/12

Submission threat

C

49th

0.1

Even

C

43rd

0.0

Control time

C

52nd

2.4 min

Even

C

47th

2.1 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	John Castaneda	Alatengheili
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	1.411	1.714
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	39%11 / 28	44%14 / 32
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	78%18 / 23	75%9 / 12
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.11	0.00
Control time / 15 (min)career total	2.4 min18:55	2.1 min17:06
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	0.8 min5:59	0.3 min2:47

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Common opponents

The single UFC opponent both fighters have faced. Reads as a directional signal, not a verdict.

John Castaneda

Alatengheili

Record vs common opponents

Even

0-1

0-1

0-1

0-1

Both lost

Decision (Split)R3· 5:00

Apr 26, 2025

Alatengheili

Oct 14, 2023

Decision (Unanimous)R3· 5:00

opp ranked #15

L

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

John Castaneda

39

Schedule Score

Alatengheili

34

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

116 min

9 bouts

Octagon time

5 min

more

121 min

9 bouts

Schedule strength

28%

27%

Win quality

54%

41%

Ranked opponents

1

2

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	John Castaneda	Alatengheili
Top-5	1-0	—
Ranked 6–15	—	0-2
Cross-div ranked	0-1	1-0
Contender-level	1-1	—
Established	1-1	0-1
Building	1-1	2-0
Unproven	0-0-1	2-0-1

John Castaneda — bouts

Alatengheili — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

John Castaneda

Alatengheili

Castaneda — last 5

recent → old

Alatengheili — last 5

recent → old

Last 5 record

2-2-1

3-2

Current streak

—

L1

Ranked opps

0 of 5

1 of 5

Layoff

5 mo

17 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

John Castaneda

Alatengheili

Post-result bounce

SituationCastaneda Alatengheili

After a loss

2-167%

1-0100%

After a win

2-250%

2-340%

Camp length

SituationCastaneda Alatengheili

Typical camp100–180 days

1-0100%

2-0100%

Long layoff> 180 days

3-350%

2-340%

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

John Castaneda

Alatengheili

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Castaneda14W–2L by finish

R1

R2

R3

R4

Alatengheili8W–4L by finish

R1

R2

R3

R4

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

20:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑20%·Castaneda

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑20%·Castaneda

C

46th

67%

+19

D

27th

47%

Goes the distance

Even

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Even

45%

56%

KO durability

↑4%·Castaneda

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

↑4%·Castaneda

C

58th

7%

+10

C

47th

11%

Submission defense

↑4%·Castaneda

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

↑4%·Castaneda

B

69th

0%

Even

B

65th

4%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	John Castaneda	Alatengheili
Wins
by KO / TKO	8(38%)	5(29%)
by submission	6(29%)	3(18%)
by decision	7(33%)	9(53%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	2(25%)	3(30%)
by submission	0(0%)	1(10%)
by decision	6(75%)	6(60%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

John Castaneda

vs

Alatengheili

10%

1 KO/TKO in 10 bouts

Knockout rate

11%

1 KO/TKO in 9 bouts

4

1.2 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

1

0.4 / 100 head

1

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

3

0.8 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

0

0.0 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

John CastanedaFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Daniel Santos3y 11mo ago
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · Oct 1, 2022 · R2 · 4:28
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

AlatengheiliFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

John Castaneda

170%

R3 vs R1 · 7 bouts reaching R3

Alatengheili

189%

R3 vs R1 · 8 bouts reaching R3

Both lean the same way, but Alatengheili leans harder: Alatengheili builds (+30% per round through round 3), Castaneda builds (+16% per round through round 3). Within fights that reached round 3, Castaneda lifts to 170% of round-1 output by round 3, Alatengheili 189%.

Castaneda ▲ BUILDS

Alatengheili ▲ BUILDSOutput / min

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Castaneda

Alatengheililanded / min

Takedown attempts

Castaneda

Alatengheiliattempts / min

Control time

Castaneda

Alatengheili% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	John Castaneda	5.7	5.1	4.0	0.07	12%	9
R1	Alatengheili	3.2	2.5	4.4	0.07	11%	9
R2	John Castaneda	6.5	4.9	6.9	0.35	13%	8
R2	Alatengheili	3.7	3.4	5.2	0.05	6%	8
R3	John Castaneda	7.8	5.7	5.8	0.35	27%	7
R3	Alatengheili	5.7	2.6	5.8	0.68	26%	8

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.