Ketlen Souza vs Ariane Carnelossi — Women's Strawweight at UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
- Weight class
- Women's Strawweight
- Rounds
- 3 × 5 min
- Venue
- Meta Apex · Las Vegas, Nevada
Markets
- Souza69%-265
- Carnelossi31%+205
Record when favored vs. an underdog, across the 4priced bouts in each fighter’s history.
Percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.
Career splits
6 bouts · vs Carnelossi
- KO/TKO0
- Submission1
- Decision2
- KO/TKO0
- Submission1
- Decision2
- Average10:48
- vs Orthodox2-3
- vs Southpaw1-0
- vs Switchno data
- vs Longer reach3-2
- vs Shorter reachno data
6 bouts · vs Souza
- KO/TKO1
- Submission1
- Decision0
- KO/TKO1
- Submission1
- Decision1
- Average11:32
- vs Orthodox3-3
- vs Southpawno data
- vs Switchno data
- vs Longer reach1-1
- vs Shorter reach0-1
Tale of the Tape
The biometric and experience deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.
Finishing & durability
How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.
When their fights end
every UFC finish on the fight clockFull method breakdown
| Outcome | Ketlen Souza | Ariane Carnelossi |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | ||
| by KO / TKO | 00% | 150% |
| by submission | 133% | 150% |
| by decision | 267% | 00% |
| Losses | ||
| by KO / TKO | 00% | 133% |
| by submission | 133% | 133% |
| by decision | 267% | 133% |
| Pace | ||
| Avg finish time (own wins) | R1 3:02 | R2 4:42 |
| Finishes used in avg | 1 | 2 |
Counts come from the same denormalised win/loss-by-method columns the rest of the site uses. The percentile context on each row is computed against fighters currently assigned to this weight class with at least two resolved UFC bouts.
KO history
Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head — then when the last finish landed, and on whom.
- Last KO/TKO scoredNo KO/TKO wins in the UFC yet
- Last time KO'dNever finished by strikes in the UFC
- Last submission scoredvs Yazmin Jauregui1y 8mo agoUFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · Sep 14, 2024 · R1 · 3:02
- Last time submittedvs Karine Silva2y 11mo agoUFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Jun 3, 2023 · R1 · 1:45
- Last KO/TKO scoredvs Liang Na5y 1mo agoUFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · Apr 24, 2021 · R2 · 1:28
- Last time KO'dvs Angela Hill6y 8mo agoUFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · Sep 21, 2019 · R3 · 1:56
- Last submission scoredvs Istela Nunes4y 7mo agoUFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont · Oct 16, 2021 · R3 · 2:57
- Last time submittedvs Talita Alencar6 months agoUFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · Nov 1, 2025 · R3 · 4:36
Common opponents
Every UFC opponent both fighters have faced — a direct comparison controlling for matchmaking.
Schedule Score
Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.
Per-tier records + bout-by-bout
| Tier | Ketlen Souza | Ariane Carnelossi |
|---|---|---|
| Top-15 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Building | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Unproven | 1-1 | 2-0 |
Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with quality wins (35%) and is Bayesian-shrunken toward the UFC median for small samples. Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, and falls back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.
Recent form
Last five UFC bouts, current trajectory, and the level of opposition faced going into this matchup.
Striking matchup
Where each fighter lands their strikes — and where each one gets hit — across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.
Full breakdown — all zones, both views
| Zone | Fighter | Landed / 15 | Accuracy | Absorbed / 15 | Career landed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head | Ketlen Souza | 32.0below division average | 45% | 24.3top 17% of division | 138 |
| Head | Ariane Carnelossi | 26.4well below average | 31% | 46.4well below average | 122 |
| Body | Ketlen Souza | 17.4top 25% of division | 77% | 21.5bottom of the division | 75 |
| Body | Ariane Carnelossi | 4.98bottom of the division | 61% | 19.3well below average | 23 |
| Leg | Ketlen Souza | 10.9above division average | 87% | 12.0well below average | 47 |
| Leg | Ariane Carnelossi | 8.02around division average | 84% | 3.47top 9% of division | 37 |
Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.
Grappling matchup
Wrestling output, ground threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.
Full breakdown — career grappling totals
| Metric | Ketlen Souza | Ariane Carnelossi | Career totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Takedowns landed / 15 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 2 / 5 |
| Takedown accuracy | 13% | 50% | 2/15 · 5/10 |
| Takedown defense | 54% | 23% | stopped 15/28 · 5/22 |
| Submission attempts / 15 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1 / 1 |
| Control time / 15 (min) | 3.1 min | 2.7 min | 13:13 · 12:37 |
| Time controlled BY opponent / 15 (min) | 3.3 min | 5.9 min | 14:03 · 27:16 |
All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time.
Pace & fade
How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.
Cardio edge to Souza: Souza actually builds to 122% of round-1 work rate through round 3, while Carnelossi holds 92% — a 30-point gap in late-round pace.
Full per-round breakdown — both fighters
What drives the pace · per round
The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.
| Round | Fighter | Output / min | Sig landed / min | Sig absorbed / min | TD att / min | Control | Bouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ketlen Souza | 4.8 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 0.24 | 19% | 6 |
| R1 | Ariane Carnelossi | 3.7 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 0.10 | 21% | 6 |
| R2 | Ketlen Souza | 6.0 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 0.15 | 26% | 4 |
| R2 | Ariane Carnelossi | 4.1 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 0.20 | 20% | 6 |
| R3 | Ketlen Souza | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 0.30 | 16% | 4 |
| R3 | Ariane Carnelossi | 3.5 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 0.14 | 8% | 4 |
Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace. See Methods for the full formula.
Activity & layoff
The recency dimension Tale of the Tape doesn't carry. How active each fighter has been, and how that compares to active peers in their division.
- Ariane has 3 months more layoff