Veronica Hardy vs Dione Barbosa — Women's Flyweight at UFC Fight Night 281
- Weight class
- Women's Flyweight
- Rounds
- 3 × 5 min
- Venue
- Paycom Center · Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Matchup read
Where each fighter holds an advantage in this matchup — offense weighed against the opponent's defense. Tap any row to see the numbers behind it. Descriptive — not a prediction.
StrikingEven
Even striking exchange
GrapplingClear edge · Barbosa
Barbosa has the bigger wrestling edge on Hardy
SubmissionClear edge · Barbosa
Barbosa is the bigger submission threat — reduced by the defense of Hardy
FinishingClear edge · Barbosa
Barbosa is more likely to finish Hardy
PaceSlight edge · Barbosa
Tale of the tapeSlight edge · Barbosa
Barbosa 2" reach · Barbosa 8 cm · Hardy 4y younger
Each edge weighs one fighter’s offense against the other’s defense in this matchup, not each fighter vs the division in isolation — so a strong defense reduces (not erases) the opposing threat. Tap a row for the percentiles behind it. Thin samples are dimmed; too little data reads “not enough data.”
Markets
Record when favored vs. an underdog, across each fighter’s priced UFC bouts.
Career splits
Tale of the Tape
The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.
Recent form
Last five pro bouts (non-UFC fights dashed + tagged), current trajectory, and the level of opposition going into this matchup.
Common opponents
UFC opponents both fighters have faced — a direct read on relative quality controlling for matchmaking.
These two fighters haven’t crossed paths in the UFC cage with any of the same opponents.
Schedule Score
Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.
Based on opponents’ full career pro records (Sherdog, amateur bouts excluded) — a descriptive read of the non-UFC slate, not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.
Per-tier records + bout-by-bout
| Tier | Veronica Hardy | Dione Barbosa |
|---|---|---|
| Top-15 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Contender-level | 1-0 | — |
| Building | — | 1-0 |
| Unproven | 4-3 | 2-0 |
- W vs Brogan Walker8Oct 4, 2025 · Unproven
- L vs Eduarda Moura8Nov 16, 2024 · Unproven
- W vs JJ Aldrich45May 11, 2024 · Contender-level
- W vs Jamey-Lyn Horth8Dec 2, 2023 · Unproven
- W vs Juliana Miller8Mar 18, 2023 · Unproven
- L vs Bea Malecki8Mar 14, 2020 · Unproven
- W vs Polyana Viana8Aug 10, 2019 · Unproven
- L vs Gillian Robertson#1560Feb 23, 2019 · Top-15
- L vs Andrea Lee8May 19, 2018 · Unproven
- L vs Ashlee Evans-Smith#1363Sep 3, 2016 · Top-15
Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with quality wins (35%). For fighters with limited UFC experience the headline is held toward a rookie baseline — a thin UFC résumé hasn’t yet proven a strong schedule — so debut and low-sample fighters read lower than established names. Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, and falls back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.
Striking matchup
Where each fighter lands their strikes — and where each one gets hit — across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.
Full breakdown — all zones, both views
| Zone | Fighter | Landed / 15 | Accuracy | Absorbed / 15 | Career landed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head | Veronica Hardy | 30.0below division average | 39% | 28.7above division average | 255 |
| Head | Dione Barbosa | 21.7well below average | 36% | 18.5top 8% of division | 93 |
| Body | Veronica Hardy | 8.36well below average | 64% | 15.3below division average | 71 |
| Body | Dione Barbosa | 9.58below division average | 76% | 9.11top 24% of division | 41 |
| Leg | Veronica Hardy | 7.54below division average | 85% | 4.59top 18% of division | 64 |
| Leg | Dione Barbosa | 3.27bottom of the division | 88% | 10.3below division average | 14 |
Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.
Grappling matchup
Wrestling output, ground threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.
Full breakdown — career grappling totals
| Metric | Veronica Hardy | Dione Barbosa | Career totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Takedowns landed / 15 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 7 / 10 |
| Takedown accuracy | 41% | 42% | 7/17 · 10/24 |
| Takedown defense | 52% | 67% | stopped 16/31 · 14/21 |
| Submission attempts / 15 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 3 / 5 |
| Control time / 15 (min) | 2.0 min | 4.0 min | 17:23 · 17:02 |
| Time controlled BY opponent / 15 (min) | 4.7 min | 4.4 min | 40:12 · 18:43 |
All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time.
Finishing & durability
How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.
When their fights end
every UFC finish on the fight clockFinish & durability rates
UFC bouts only
Full method breakdown
| Outcome | Veronica Hardy | Dione Barbosa |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | ||
| by KO / TKO | 0(0%) | 0(0%) |
| by submission | 1(20%) | 1(33%) |
| by decision | 4(80%) | 2(67%) |
| Losses | ||
| by KO / TKO | 1(20%) | 0(0%) |
| by submission | 1(20%) | 0(0%) |
| by decision | 3(60%) | 2(100%) |
| Pace | ||
| Avg finish time (own wins) | R1 1:09 | R1 4:13 |
| Finishes used in avg | 1 | 1 |
Counts come from the same denormalised win/loss-by-method columns the rest of the site uses. The percentile context on each row is computed against fighters currently assigned to this weight class with at least two resolved UFC bouts.
KO history
UFC fights only — knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head, then when the last finish landed, and on whom.
- Last time KO'dvs Ashlee Evans-Smith9y 9mo agoUFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · Sep 3, 2016 · R3 · 2:46
- Last time submittedvs Gillian Robertson7y 3mo agoUFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos · Feb 23, 2019 · R2 · 3:27
- Last time KO'dNever finished by strikes in the UFC
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
Pace & fade
How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.
Hardy and Barbosa hold their pace similarly into the championship rounds — Hardy keeps 104% of round-1 work rate by round 3, Barbosa 101%. No clear cardio edge either way.
Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.
Full per-round breakdown — both fighters
What drives the pace · per round
The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.
| Round | Fighter | Output / min | Sig landed / min | Sig absorbed / min | TD att / min | Control | Bouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Veronica Hardy | 4.1 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 0.04 | 13% | 10 |
| R1 | Dione Barbosa | 5.0 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 0.29 | 24% | 5 |
| R2 | Veronica Hardy | 3.7 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 0.16 | 17% | 9 |
| R2 | Dione Barbosa | 4.0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 0.40 | 32% | 4 |
| R3 | Veronica Hardy | 4.2 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 0.21 | 11% | 8 |
| R3 | Dione Barbosa | 4.4 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 0.45 | 24% | 4 |
Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.
Activity & layoff
The recency dimension Tale of the Tape doesn't carry. How active each fighter has been, and how that compares to active peers in their division.
- Veronica has 5 months more layoff