Melissa Croden vs Chelsea Chandler Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Melissa Croden

edge

Chelsea Chandler

Striking

◂ Croden

Croden out-strikes Chandler

Effective offense

A

70th

2.0

+18

C

53rd

1.6

Defense

A

84th

59%

+68

F

17th

40%

KO power

C

6 KO

0.3 KD

+17

D

2 KO

0.2 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

◂ Croden

Croden has the bigger wrestling edge on Chandler

Takedowns landed

A

75th

2.0

+32

C

43rd

0.8

Takedown accuracy

50%

60%

Takedown defense

B

58th

67%

+44

F

14th

25%

Control time

C

56th

3.7 min

Even

B

63rd

4.4 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

Even

Both real submission threats

Submission attempts

B

59th

0.3

Even

C

53rd

0.3

Sub win rate

B

62nd

13%

1 sub

Even

B

66th

17%

1 sub

Submission defense

D

39th

0%

Even

D

39th

0%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

Chandler ▸

Chandler is more likely to finish Croden

Finish rate

C

52nd

50%

+15

B

67th

67%

KO durability

C

42nd

0%

+11

D

31st

17%

Submission defense

D

39th

0%

Even

D

39th

0%

See full Finishes →

Pace

◂ Croden

Croden pushes the higher work rate over the fight — Croden's pace builds while Chandler's fades

Work rate / min — full fight

6.1

4.8

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

5.2

4.9

Pace trend

+30%/rd

-11%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

◂ Croden

Croden is in better recent form than Chandler

Win rate (career)

67%

50%

After a win

0%

Even

0%

Last 5

80%

40%

Win streakW1W1

See full Form →

Schedule

Even

Comparable level of opposition

Schedule strength

50%

45%

Win quality

50%

29%

Ranked opponents

2

3

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

See full Schedule →

Activity

◂ Croden

Croden is fresher and more active than Chandler

Last bout

4mo

3mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

3

1

Bouts, last 24 mo

3

2

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

◂ Croden

Croden 4 cm · Open-stance matchup

Melissa CrodenvsChelsea Chandler

35

Age

3y

younger

32

5'10"

178cm

Height

2"

taller

5'9"

174cm

68"

173cm

Reach

Even

68"

173cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Melissa CrodenChelsea Chandler

Percentile

Striking/min4.273.55

Accuracy%47%45%

Defense%59%40%

Takedowns/152.00.9

TD defense%66%28%

Submissions/150.30.0

Career rate as a percentile within the women's bantamweight (77 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Pre-UFC opposition

non-UFC slate for Melissa Croden, from opponents’ full pro records

Melissa Croden

Moderate

Opponents' combined record

50-36

.581 win rate

Winning-record opponents

4 of 8

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

8

all opponents have records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

Markets

UFC betting history

Career

CrodenMelissa Croden

ChandlerChelsea Chandler

Notes

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

CrodenMelissa Croden

Stat

ChandlerChelsea Chandler

1

0

KO / TKO

1

0

Submission

1

0

1

Decision

1

2

14:51

Avg fight time

9:15

Melissa Croden’s splits

vs Chandler

vs Orthodox

2-167%

vs Southpaw

0-0no data

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

0-0no data

vs Shorter reach

1-150%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Chelsea Chandler’s splits

vs Croden

vs Southpaw

1-0100%

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

0-20%

vs Shorter reach

3-175%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Melissa CrodenvsChelsea Chandler

35

Age

3y

younger

32

5'10"

178cm

Height

2"

taller

5'9"

174cm

68"

173cm

Reach

Even

68"

173cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

B

68th

+34

D

34th

Croden holds a decisive striking edge (+34).

Attacking

Croden’s offensevsChandler’s defense

Where Croden attacks (green = high volume) vs where Chandler gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Croden’s green zones meeting Chandler’s red zones are the openings.

Melissa CrodenOffense

Head71%70th134
Body16%52nd31
Leg13%57th25

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Chelsea ChandlerDefense

Head51%51st122
Body27%27th65
Leg21%25th50

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Croden — by position

62%Standing

Standing62%118
Clinch18%34
Ground20%38

Chandler — absorbed by position

73%Standing

Standing73%174
Clinch22%51
Ground5%12

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Croden’s offensevsChandler’s defense

Head

B

70th

39.6

+19

C

51st

35.1

Body

C

52nd

11.0

+25

D

27th

15.2

Leg

C

57th

8.4

+32

D

25th

11.3

Chandler’s offensevsCroden’s defense

Head

B

58th

35.8

Even

B

62nd

28.8

Body

B

61st

12.9

+18

C

43rd

11.0

Leg

D

35th

4.6

+34

B

70th

5.5

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Melissa Croden	top 30% of division39.6	43%	above division average28.8	134
Head	Chelsea Chandler	above division average35.8	39%	around division average35.1	137
Body	Melissa Croden	around division average11.0	65%	below division average11.0	31
Body	Chelsea Chandler	above division average12.9	69%	well below average15.2	52
Leg	Melissa Croden	above division average8.4	64%	top 30% of division5.5	25
Leg	Chelsea Chandler	below division average4.6	86%	well below average11.3	6

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Melissa Croden

Chelsea Chandler

Overall Grappling

Grappling

B

61st

+15

C

47th

Croden has the grappling edge (+15).

Takedowns

B

66th

2.0

+11

C

54th

0.8

Takedown accuracy

B

66th

50%

6/12

60%

3/5

Takedown defense

B

58th

67%

10/15

+44

F

14th

25%

2/8

Submission threat

B

61st

0.3

Even

B

59th

0.3

Control time

C

56th

3.7 min

Even

B

58th

4.4 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Melissa Croden	Chelsea Chandler
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	2.06	0.83
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	50%6 / 12	60%3 / 5
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	67%10 / 15	25%2 / 8
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.31	0.31
Control time / 15 (min)career total	3.7 min11:01	4.4 min16:10
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	3.9 min11:40	3.2 min11:55

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Melissa Croden

37

Schedule Score

Chelsea Chandler

41

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

45 min

3 bouts

Octagon time

10 min

more

55 min

6 bouts

Schedule strength

50%

45%

Win quality

50%

29%

Ranked opponents

2

3

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Melissa Croden	Chelsea Chandler
Top-5	—	0-2
Ranked 6–15	1-1	1-0
Cross-div ranked	—	0-1
Building	1-0	—
Unproven	—	2-0

Melissa Croden — bouts

Chelsea Chandler — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Melissa Croden

Chelsea Chandler

Croden — last 5

recent → old

WLFA

KO R2

Deen

Oct ’24

WLFA

KO R3

Lehner

Oct ’23

Chandler — last 5

recent → old

Last 5 record

4-1

2-3

Current streak

W1

Even

W1

Ranked opps

2 of 5

3 of 5

Layoff

4 mo

3 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Melissa Croden

Chelsea Chandler

Post-result bounce

SituationCroden Chandler

After a loss

1-0100%

2-167%

After a win

0-10%

0-20%

Camp length

SituationCroden Chandler

Short turnaround< 100 days

0-10%

—

Typical camp100–180 days

1-0100%

0-10%

Long layoff> 180 days

—

2-250%

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Melissa Croden

Chelsea Chandler

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Croden7W–0L by finish

R1

R2

R3

Chandler4W–1L by finish · 75% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑38%·Croden

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑38%·Croden

A

79th

88%

+38

D

41st

50%

Goes the distance

Even

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Even

36%

60%

KO durability

↑10%·Croden

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

↑10%·Croden

B

68th

0%

+37

D

31st

10%

Submission defense

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

Even

B

59th

0%

Even

B

59th

0%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Melissa Croden	Chelsea Chandler
Wins
by KO / TKO	6(75%)	2(33%)
by submission	1(13%)	1(17%)
by decision	1(13%)	3(50%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	0(0%)	1(25%)
by submission	0(0%)	0(0%)
by decision	3(100%)	3(75%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Melissa Croden

vs

Chelsea Chandler

33%

1 KO/TKO in 3 bouts

Knockout rate

17%

1 KO/TKO in 6 bouts

1

0.7 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

1

0.7 / 100 head

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

1

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

0

0.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

1

0.8 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Melissa CrodenFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Chelsea ChandlerFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Joselyne Edwards1y 3mo ago
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · Apr 26, 2025 · R1 · 2:31
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Melissa Croden

188%

R3 vs R1 · 3 bouts reaching R3

Chelsea Chandler

100%

R3 vs R1 · 3 bouts reaching R3

Cardio edge to Croden: Croden builds (+30% per round through round 3) while Chandler fades (-11% per round through round 3). Within fights that reached round 3, Croden lifts to 188% of round-1 output by round 3, Chandler 100%.

Croden ▲ BUILDS

Chandler ▼ FADESOutput / min

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Croden

Chandlerlanded / min

Takedown attempts

Croden

Chandlerattempts / min

Control time

Croden

Chandler% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Melissa Croden	4.2	3.3	3.3	0.20	8%	3
R1	Chelsea Chandler	5.6	4.0	4.4	0.12	32%	6
R2	Melissa Croden	6.2	4.7	1.9	0.20	23%	3
R2	Chelsea Chandler	4.3	2.7	4.3	0.07	34%	3
R3	Melissa Croden	7.9	4.9	1.2	0.41	44%	3
R3	Chelsea Chandler	4.5	3.5	4.0	0.07	20%	3

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.