Renato Moicano vs Brian Ortega Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Renato Moicano

edge

Brian Ortega

Striking

◂ Moicano

Moicano out-strikes Ortega

Effective offense

A

79th

2.0

+20

B

60th

1.4

Defense

B

60th

59%

+41

F

19th

49%

KO power

D

2 KO

0.1 KD

+15

D

3 KO

0.4 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

◂ Moicano

Moicano has the bigger wrestling edge on Ortega

Takedowns landed

B

63rd

1.7

+24

D

39th

0.9

Takedown accuracy

B

60th

40%

+31

D

29th

24%

Takedown defense

C

54th

64%

+14

D

40th

53%

Control time

B

61st

3.3 min

+36

D

25th

1.2 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

Ortega ▸

Ortega is the bigger submission threat on Moicano

Submission attempts

B

60th

0.6

+10

A

70th

0.8

Sub win rate

A

83rd

52%

11 subs

Even

A

82nd

50%

8 subs

Submission defense

C

46th

7%

Even

C

52nd

0%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

Ortega ▸

Ortega is more likely to finish Moicano

Finish rate

B

68th

69%

Even

A

76th

88%

KO durability

C

46th

15%

+17

B

63rd

0%

Submission defense

D

42nd

10%

+10

C

52nd

0%

See full Finishes →

Pace

◂ Moicano

Moicano pushes the higher work rate over the fight

Work rate / min — full fight

6.0

5.0

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

5.9

4.2

Pace trend

+6%/rd

+28%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

◂ Moicano

Moicano is in better recent form than Ortega

Win rate (career)

65%

62%

After a win

58%

63%

Last 5

60%

20%

Win streakW1L2

See full Form →

Schedule

Ortega ▸

Ortega has faced the tougher schedule vs Moicano

Schedule strength

64%

80%

Win quality

53%

62%

Ranked opponents

13

11

Title-holder bouts

1

2

Common opps (2)1-12-0

See full Schedule →

Activity

◂ Moicano

Moicano is fresher and more active than Ortega

Last bout

5mo

12mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

1

0

Bouts, last 24 mo

4

2

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

◂ Moicano

Moicano 3" reach · Moicano 8 cm · Switch-stance wrinkle

Renato MoicanovsBrian Ortega

37

Age

2y

younger

35

5'11"

180cm

Height

3"

taller

5'8"

173cm

72"

183cm

Reach

3"

reach

69"

175cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

On the bubbleBrian Ortega 19% cut risk · 2-fight skid

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Renato MoicanoBrian Ortega

Percentile

Striking/min4.103.84

Accuracy%49%37%

Defense%59%49%

Takedowns/151.70.9

TD defense%64%54%

Submissions/150.60.9

Career rate as a percentile within the lightweight (426 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Markets

UFC betting history

Career

MoicanoRenato Moicano

OrtegaBrian Ortega

1-233%

As pick'em

1-150%

Notes

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

MoicanoRenato Moicano

Stat

OrtegaBrian Ortega

2

3

KO / TKO

3

2

7

2

Submission

4

0

4

2

Decision

1

3

9:24

Avg fight time

14:45

Renato Moicano’s splits

vs Ortega

vs Orthodox

10-283%

vs Southpaw

3-350%

vs Longer reach

3-0100%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Brian Ortega’s splits

vs Moicano

vs Southpaw

0-0no data

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Shorter reach

2-0100%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Renato MoicanovsBrian Ortega

37

Age

2y

younger

35

5'11"

180cm

Height

3"

taller

5'8"

173cm

72"

183cm

Reach

3"

reach

69"

175cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

C

55th

+15

D

40th

Moicano has the striking edge (+15).

Attacking

Moicano’s offensevsOrtega’s defense

Where Moicano attacks (green = high volume) vs where Ortega gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Moicano’s green zones meeting Ortega’s red zones are the openings.

Renato MoicanoOffense

Head73%82nd563
Body10%35th75
Leg17%72nd133

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Brian OrtegaDefense

Head71%6th871
Body15%25th183
Leg14%19th173

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Moicano — by position

82%Standing

Standing82%636
Clinch3%25
Ground14%110

Ortega — absorbed by position

86%Standing

Standing86%1,058
Clinch4%43
Ground10%126

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Moicano’s offensevsOrtega’s defense

Head

A

82nd

42.1

+76

F

6th

61.5

Body

D

35th

6.8

+10

D

25th

13.6

Leg

A

72nd

10.1

+53

F

19th

12.5

Ortega’s offensevsMoicano’s defense

Head

A

79th

39.1

+34

C

45th

33.4

Body

C

58th

10.4

+10

C

47th

10.0

Leg

C

47th

6.5

+15

D

32nd

9.7

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Renato Moicano	top 18% of division42.1	43%	around division average33.4	563
Head	Brian Ortega	top 21% of division39.1	31%	bottom of the division61.5	527
Body	Renato Moicano	below division average6.8	66%	around division average10.0	75
Body	Brian Ortega	above division average10.4	72%	well below average13.6	134
Leg	Renato Moicano	top 28% of division10.1	85%	below division average9.7	133
Leg	Brian Ortega	around division average6.5	81%	well below average12.5	78

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Renato Moicano

Brian Ortega

Overall Grappling

Grappling

B

60th

+17

C

43rd

Moicano has the grappling edge (+17).

Takedowns

B

63rd

1.7

+20

C

43rd

0.9

Takedown accuracy

B

60th

40%

21/52

+31

D

29th

24%

11/45

Takedown defense

C

54th

64%

27/42

+14

D

40th

53%

17/32

Submission threat

B

62nd

0.6

+8

B

70th

0.8

Control time

B

59th

3.3 min

+28

D

31st

1.2 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Renato Moicano	Brian Ortega
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	1.721	0.911
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	40%21 / 52	24%11 / 45
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	64%27 / 42	53%17 / 32
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.67	0.810
Control time / 15 (min)career total	3.3 min41:11	1.2 min15:25
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	2.0 min24:42	1.7 min22:06

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Common opponents

Every UFC opponent both fighters have faced — a direct comparison controlling for matchmaking.

Renato Moicano

Brian Ortega

Record vs common opponents

Edge · Ortega

1-1

1-1

2-0

2-0

Edge · Ortega

Decision (Unanimous)R5· 5:00

Both won

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Renato Moicano

63

Schedule Score

Brian Ortega

80

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

188 min

20 bouts

Octagon time

4 min

more

192 min

13 bouts

Schedule strength

64%

80%

Win quality

53%

62%

Ranked opponents

13

11

Title-holder bouts

1

2

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Renato Moicano	Brian Ortega
Champion	0-2	0-2
Top-5	4-3	5-2
Ranked 6–15	4-1	3-0
Cross-div champ	0-1	0-1
Established	2-0	—
Building	2-0	—
Unproven	1-0	0-0, 1 NC

Renato Moicano — bouts

Brian Ortega — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Renato Moicano

Brian Ortega

Moicano — last 5

recent → old

Ortega — last 5

recent → old

Last 5 record

3-2

1-4

Current streak

W1

L2

Ranked opps

4 of 5

Even

4 of 5

Layoff

5 mo

12 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Renato Moicano

Brian Ortega

Camp length

SituationMoicano Ortega

Short turnaround< 100 days

1-150%

1-0100%

Typical camp100–180 days

2-433%

2-0100%

Long layoff> 180 days

9-282%

4-544%

Post-result bounce

SituationMoicano Ortega

After a loss

5-271%

2-250%

After a win

7-558%

5-363%

Title fights

SituationMoicano Ortega

All title fightschallenger or champ

0-10%

0-20%

As challengerfor the belt

0-10%

0-20%

Rematches

SituationMoicano Ortega

All rematchesany repeat opponent

—

1-0100%

Revenge boutslost the first

—

1-0100%

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Renato Moicano

Brian Ortega

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Moicano13W–5L by finish

R1

R2

R3

R4

Ortega11W–2L by finish

R1

R2

R3

R4

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

20:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑7%·Ortega

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑7%·Ortega

D

31st

62%

+9

D

39th

69%

Goes the distance

Even

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Even

36%

38%

KO durability

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

Even

C

51st

11%

Even

C

54th

10%

Submission defense

↑7%·Ortega

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

↑7%·Ortega

B

59th

7%

+13

A

72nd

0%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Renato Moicano	Brian Ortega
Wins
by KO / TKO	2(10%)	3(19%)
by submission	11(52%)	8(50%)
by decision	8(38%)	5(31%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	3(43%)	2(40%)
by submission	2(29%)	0(0%)
by decision	2(29%)	3(60%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Renato Moicano

vs

Brian Ortega

10%

2 KO/TKO in 20 bouts

Knockout rate

23%

3 KO/TKO in 13 bouts

2

0.4 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

5

0.9 / 100 head

3

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

4

1.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

2

0.2 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Renato MoicanoFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Rafael Fiziev5y 8mo ago
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno · Dec 12, 2020 · R1 · 4:05
Last time submitted
vs Islam Makhachev1y 7mo ago
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025 · R1 · 4:05

Brian OrtegaFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Yair Rodriguez4y 1mo ago
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Jul 16, 2022 · R1 · 4:11
* injury · not a clean KO
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Renato Moicano

121%

R3 vs R1 · 7 bouts reaching R3

Brian Ortega

216%

R3 vs R1 · 10 bouts reaching R3

No clear cardio edge — Moicano builds (+6% per round through round 3) and Ortega builds (+9% per round through round 5). Within fights that reached round 3, Moicano lifts to 121% of round-1 output by round 3, Ortega 216%.

Moicano ▲ BUILDS

Ortega ▲ BUILDSOutput / min

Faded points are drawn from a single bout that reached that round, so they’re less reliable than the solid points averaged over many fights.

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Moicano

Ortegalanded / min

Takedown attempts

Moicano

Ortegaattempts / min

Control time

Moicano

Ortega% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Renato Moicano	5.4	3.5	3.1	0.30	26%	20
R1	Brian Ortega	3.7	2.9	5.6	0.16	8%	13
R2	Renato Moicano	6.4	4.5	3.3	0.31	24%	14
R2	Brian Ortega	4.7	3.8	5.4	0.17	9%	11
R3	Renato Moicano	6.1	4.8	4.5	0.24	15%	7
R3	Brian Ortega	6.5	5.4	7.2	0.25	9%	10
R4	Renato Moicano	2.4	2.4	4.4	0.00	0%	1
R4	Brian Ortega	5.2	3.2	10.1	0.55	8%	4
R5	Renato Moicano	7.2	7.2	7.6	0.00	0%	1
R5	Brian Ortega	5.8	4.7	6.2	0.33	1%	3

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.