Steven Asplund vs Guilherme Pat Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Steven Asplund

edge

Guilherme Pat

Striking

Even

Even striking exchange (thin sample)

Effective offense

A+

99th

5.1

+30

B

69th

1.6

Defense

D

33rd

50%

+34

B

66th

51%

KO power

B

6 KO

0.5 KD

+11

C

4 KO

0.0 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

Even

Wrestling stays neutral (thin sample)

Takedowns landed

F

15th

0.0

Even

F

15th

0.0

Takedown accuracy——

Takedown defense

100%

Even

100%

Control time

F

10th

0.2 min

Even

F

14th

0.4 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

Even

Little submission threat either way (thin sample)

Submission attempts

F

24th

0.0

Even

F

24th

0.0

Sub win rate

B

63rd

0%

0 subs

Even

B

63rd

0%

0 subs

Submission defense

D

29th

11%

Even

D

36th

0%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

◂ Asplund

Asplund is more likely to finish Pat (thin sample)

Finish rate

C

46th

100%

+13

D

33rd

0%

KO durability

C

54th

0%

Even

C

54th

0%

Submission defense

D

32nd

0%

Even

D

32nd

0%

See full Finishes →

Pace

◂ Asplund

Asplund pushes the higher work rate over the fight

Work rate / min — full fight

11.0

2.8

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

11.0

2.7

Pace trend—-4%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

Pat ▸

Pat is in better recent form than Asplund (thin sample)

Win rate (career)

50%

Even

50%

After a win

0%

Even

0%

Last 5

60%

80%

Win streakL1L1

See full Form →

Schedule

Even

Comparable level of opposition (thin sample)

Schedule strength

35%

13%

Win quality

24%

44%

Ranked opponents

1

0

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

See full Schedule →

Activity

◂ Asplund

Asplund has fought more often lately than Pat

Last bout

4mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

3

2

Bouts, last 24 mo

3

2

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

Pat ▸

Pat 3" reach · Pat 3 cm · Asplund 4y younger · Closed-stance matchup

Steven AsplundvsGuilherme Pat

28

Age

4y

younger

32

6'5"

196cm

Height

1"

taller

6'6"

198cm

78"

198cm

Reach

3"

reach

81"

206cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Steven AsplundGuilherme Pat

Percentile

Striking/min10.052.70

Accuracy%51%61%

Defense%50%51%

Takedowns/150.00.0

TD defense%100%100%

Submissions/150.00.0

Career rate as a percentile within the heavyweight (304 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Pre-UFC opposition

non-UFC slate for each fighter, from opponents’ full pro records

Asplund faced the tougher slate — opponents averaged .552 career win rate vs .324 for Pat.

Steven Asplund

Moderate

Opponents' combined record

32-26

.552 win rate

Winning-record opponents

4 of 6

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

6

all opponents have records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

Guilherme Pat

Developmental

Opponents' combined record

12-25

.324 win rate

Winning-record opponents

0 of 5

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

5

all opponents have records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

Markets

UFC betting history

Career

AsplundSteven Asplund

PatGuilherme Pat

—

As pick'em

0-10%

Notes

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

AsplundSteven Asplund

Stat

PatGuilherme Pat

1

0

KO / TKO

0

Submission

0

1

Decision

1

11:55

Avg fight time

15:00

Steven Asplund’s splits

vs Pat

vs Southpaw

0-0no data

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

0-0no data

vs Shorter reach

1-150%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Guilherme Pat’s splits

vs Asplund

vs Southpaw

0-10%

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

0-0no data

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Steven AsplundvsGuilherme Pat

28

Age

4y

younger

32

6'5"

196cm

Height

1"

taller

6'6"

198cm

78"

198cm

Reach

3"

reach

81"

206cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

B

65th

Even

B

63rd

Evenly matched striking — no clear edge either way.

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Asplund’s offensevsPat’s defense

Head

A+

94th

65.4

+39

C

55th

29.2

Body

C

52nd

8.1

Even

C

50th

8.5

Leg

B

66th

8.6

+12

C

53rd

6.4

Pat’s offensevsAsplund’s defense

Head

C

54th

32.0

+33

F

21st

47.1

Body

C

49th

7.6

+27

F

23rd

13.4

Leg

C

50th

5.7

+13

D

37th

8.7

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Steven Asplund	top 6% of division65.4	49%	well below average47.1	202
Head	Guilherme Pat	around division average32.0	56%	above division average29.2	62
Body	Steven Asplund	around division average8.1	71%	well below average13.4	10
Body	Guilherme Pat	around division average7.6	92%	around division average8.5	11
Leg	Steven Asplund	above division average8.6	95%	below division average8.7	19
Leg	Guilherme Pat	around division average5.7	89%	around division average6.4	8

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Steven Asplund

Guilherme Pat

Overall Grappling

Grappling

C

54th

Even

C

52nd

Evenly matched grappling — no clear edge either way.

Takedowns

C

50th

0.0

Even

C

50th

0.0

Takedown accuracy

—

Takedown defense

100%

5/5

100%

5/5

Submission threat

B

64th

0.0

Even

B

61st

0.0

Control time

C

47th

0.2 min

Even

C

46th

0.4 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Steven Asplund	Guilherme Pat
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	0.00	0.00
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	—0 / 0	—0 / 0
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	100%5 / 5	100%5 / 5
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.00	0.00
Control time / 15 (min)career total	0.2 min0:15	0.4 min0:44
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	0.8 min1:17	8.3 min16:31

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Steven Asplund

30

Schedule Score

Guilherme Pat

29

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

24 min

2 bouts

Octagon time

6 min

more

30 min

2 bouts

Schedule strength

35%

13%

Win quality

24%

44%

Ranked opponents

1

0

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Steven Asplund	Guilherme Pat
Ranked 6–15	0-1	—
Building	—	0-1
Unproven	1-0	1-0

Steven Asplund — bouts

Guilherme Pat — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Steven Asplund

Guilherme Pat

Asplund — last 5

recent → old

WLFA

KO R2

Kovacs

Apr ’25

WLFA

KO R3

Morton

Jan ’25

LLFA

SUB R2

Freeman

Sep ’24

Pat — last 5

recent → old

WLFA

KO R3

Queiroz

Aug ’24

WFMS 3

DEC

de Oliveira

Aug ’23

WSPARTACU

KO R2

de Oliveira

Apr ’23

Last 5 record

3-2

4-1

Current streak

L1

Even

L1

Ranked opps

1 of 5

0 of 5

Layoff

4 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Steven Asplund

Guilherme Pat

Post-result bounce

SituationAsplund Pat

After a win

0-10%

Camp length

SituationAsplund Pat

Short turnaround< 100 days

0-10%

—

Typical camp100–180 days

—

0-10%

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Steven Asplund

Guilherme Pat

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Asplund5W–1L by finish

R1

R2

R3

Pat4W–0L by finish

R1

R2

R3

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑19%·Asplund

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑19%·Asplund

C

50th

86%

+25

D

25th

67%

Goes the distance

Even

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Even

22%

43%

KO durability

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

Even

A

81st

0%

Even

A

79th

0%

Submission defense

↑11%·Pat

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

↑11%·Pat

D

26th

11%

+32

C

58th

0%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Steven Asplund	Guilherme Pat
Wins
by KO / TKO	6(86%)	4(67%)
by submission	0(0%)	0(0%)
by decision	1(14%)	2(33%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	0(0%)	0(0%)
by submission	1(50%)	0(0%)
by decision	1(50%)	1(100%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Steven Asplund

vs

Guilherme Pat

67%

2 KO/TKO in 3 bouts

Knockout rate

0%

0 KO/TKO in 2 bouts

1

0.5 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

0

0.0 / 100 head

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

0

0.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

1

2.6 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Steven AsplundFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Guilherme PatFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Steven Asplund

—

< 2 bouts to R3

Guilherme Pat

94%

R3 vs R1 · 2 bouts reaching R3

Pat keeps 94% of round-1 output by round 3 (within fights reaching round 3). Asplund hasn't reached the third round in enough UFC bouts to read a pace pattern yet.

Asplund

Pat ▼ FADESOutput / min

Faded points are drawn from a single bout that reached that round, so they’re less reliable than the solid points averaged over many fights.

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Asplund

Patlanded / min

Takedown attempts

Asplund

Patattempts / min

Control time

Asplund

Pat% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Steven Asplund	9.2	9.1	6.2	3%	2
R1	Guilherme Pat	3.2	3.2	2.3	1%	2
R2	Steven Asplund	12.8	12.8	6.5	0%	2
R2	Guilherme Pat	2.2	2.0	1.8	4%	2
R3	Steven Asplund	5.4	5.4	7.8	0%	1
R3	Guilherme Pat	3.0	2.9	2.0	3%	2

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.