Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Tommy McMillen

edge

Marwan Rahiki

Striking

Even

Even striking exchange (thin sample)

Effective offense

A+

99th

5.2

Even

A+

98th

4.0

Defense

D

42nd

58%

Even

D

38th

57%

KO power

B

4 KO

1.5 KD

Even

B

8 KO

0.5 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

Even

Wrestling stays neutral (thin sample)

Takedowns landed

F

8th

0.0

Even

F

8th

0.0

Takedown accuracy——

Takedown defense—100%

Control time

F

16th

0.9 min

+23

D

39th

1.9 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

◂ McMillen

McMillen is the bigger submission threat on Rahiki (thin sample)

Submission attempts

F

19th

0.0

Even

F

19th

0.0

Sub win rate

A

79th

50%

5 subs

+20

B

59th

11%

1 sub

Submission defense

C

42nd

0%

Even

C

42nd

0%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

Even

Both finishing threats (thin sample)

Finish rate

B

66th

100%

Even

B

66th

100%

KO durability

C

52nd

0%

Even

C

52nd

0%

Submission defense

D

39th

0%

Even

D

39th

0%

See full Finishes →

Pace

◂ McMillen

McMillen pushes the higher work rate over the fight

Work rate / min — full fight

18.1

9.5

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

18.1

9.5

See full Pace →

Form

Even

Comparable recent form (thin sample)

Win rate (career)

100%

Even

100%

After a win

100%

Even

100%

Last 5

100%

Even

100%

Win streakW5W5

See full Form →

Schedule

Even

Comparable level of opposition (thin sample)

Schedule strength

8%

Even

8%

Win quality

58%

Even

58%

Ranked opponents

0

Even

0

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

See full Schedule →

Activity

Even

Similar activity going in

Last bout

1mo

4mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

3

Even

3

Bouts, last 24 mo

3

Even

3

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

◂ McMillen

McMillen 2" reach · McMillen 5 cm · Rahiki 4y younger · Closed-stance matchup

Tommy McMillenvsMarwan Rahiki

28

Age

4y

younger

24

6'0"

183cm

Height

2"

taller

5'10"

178cm

74"

188cm

Reach

2"

reach

72"

183cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Tommy McMillenMarwan Rahiki

Percentile

Striking/min9.877.75

Accuracy%53%52%

Defense%58%57%

Takedowns/150.00.0

TD defense%83%100%

Submissions/150.00.8

Career rate as a percentile within the featherweight (283 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Pre-UFC opposition

non-UFC slate for each fighter, from opponents’ full pro records

Rahiki faced the tougher slate — opponents averaged .525 career win rate vs .368 for McMillen.

Tommy McMillen

Moderate

Opponents' combined record

60-103

.368 win rate

Winning-record opponents

4 of 8

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

8

all opponents have records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

Marwan Rahiki

Moderate

Opponents' combined record

31-28

.525 win rate

Winning-record opponents

3 of 6

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

6

all opponents have records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

Markets

UFC betting history

Career

McMillenTommy McMillen

RahikiMarwan Rahiki

Notes

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

McMillenTommy McMillen

Stat

RahikiMarwan Rahiki

2

—

KO / TKO

2

—

0

—

Submission

0

—

0

—

Decision

0

—

8:43

Avg fight time

6:24

Tommy McMillen’s splits

vs Rahiki

vs Southpaw

0-0no data

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

0-0no data

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Marwan Rahiki’s splits

vs McMillen

vs Southpaw

0-0no data

vs Switch

1-0100%

vs Longer reach

0-0no data

vs Shorter reach

2-0100%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Tommy McMillenvsMarwan Rahiki

28

Age

4y

younger

24

6'0"

183cm

Height

2"

taller

5'10"

178cm

74"

188cm

Reach

2"

reach

72"

183cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

B

67th

Even

B

66th

Evenly matched striking — no clear edge either way.

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

McMillen’s offensevsRahiki’s defense

Head

A+

99th

81.3

+61

D

37th

38.4

Body

A+

98th

26.0

+65

D

33rd

12.9

Leg

B

66th

9.9

+42

F

25th

12.3

Rahiki’s offensevsMcMillen’s defense

Head

A

83rd

45.8

+54

D

29th

41.0

Body

A

73rd

13.8

+26

C

47th

10.9

Leg

A

76th

11.4

+23

C

53rd

7.3

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Tommy McMillen	elite — top of division81.3	45%	well below average41.0	236
Head	Marwan Rahiki	top 17% of division45.8	49%	below division average38.4	74
Body	Tommy McMillen	elite — top of division26.0	74%	around division average10.9	75
Body	Marwan Rahiki	top 27% of division13.8	63%	below division average12.9	20
Leg	Tommy McMillen	above division average9.9	79%	around division average7.3	15
Leg	Marwan Rahiki	top 24% of division11.4	86%	well below average12.3	18

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Tommy McMillen

Marwan Rahiki

Overall Grappling

Grappling

C

51st

Even

C

54th

Evenly matched grappling — no clear edge either way.

Takedowns

C

47th

0.0

Even

C

49th

0.0

Takedown accuracy

—

Takedown defense

—

100%

1/1

Submission threat

C

57th

0.0

Even

B

59th

0.0

Control time

C

48th

0.9 min

Even

C

53rd

1.9 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Tommy McMillen	Marwan Rahiki
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	0.00	0.00
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	—0 / 0	—0 / 0
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	—0 / 0	100%1 / 1
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.00	0.00
Control time / 15 (min)career total	0.9 min1:03	1.9 min1:39
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	0.2 min0:15	0.9 min0:44

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Tommy McMillen

29

Schedule Score

Marwan Rahiki

29

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

17 min

2 bouts

Octagon time

4 min

more

13 min

2 bouts

Schedule strength

8%

Even

8%

Win quality

58%

Even

58%

Ranked opponents

0

Even

0

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Tommy McMillen	Marwan Rahiki
Unproven	2-0	2-0

Tommy McMillen — bouts

Marwan Rahiki — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Tommy McMillen

Marwan Rahiki

McMillen — last 5

recent → old

WRUF

SUB R1

Roa

Apr ’25

WFUSION

SUB R1

Penagos

Dec ’24

Rahiki — last 5

recent → old

WBEATDOWN

KO R2

Schlupp

Jul ’25

WHFS

SUB R4

Kakembo

May ’25

Last 5 record

5-0

Even

5-0

Current streak

W5

Even

W5

Ranked opps

0 of 5

Even

0 of 5

Layoff

37 d

4 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Tommy McMillen

Marwan Rahiki

Post-result bounce

SituationMcMillen Rahiki

After a win

1-0100%

Camp length

SituationMcMillen Rahiki

Short turnaround< 100 days

—

1-0100%

Typical camp100–180 days

1-0100%

—

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Tommy McMillen

Marwan Rahiki

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

McMillen10W–0L by finish · 89% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

Rahiki9W–0L by finish

R1

R2

R3

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑10%·Rahiki

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑10%·Rahiki

B

65th

90%

Even

A

72nd

100%

Goes the distance

Both finishers

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Both finishers

10%

0%

KO durability

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

Even

A

70th

0%

Even

B

69th

0%

Submission defense

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

Even

B

68th

0%

Even

B

67th

0%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Tommy McMillen	Marwan Rahiki
Wins
by KO / TKO	4(40%)	8(89%)
by submission	5(50%)	1(11%)
by decision	1(10%)	0(0%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	0	0
by submission	0	0
by decision	0	0

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Tommy McMillen

vs

Marwan Rahiki

67%

2 KO/TKO in 3 bouts

Knockout rate

100%

3 KO/TKO in 3 bouts

3

1.3 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

1

1.4 / 100 head

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

0

0.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

0

0.0 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Tommy McMillenFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Marwan RahikiFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Tommy McMillen

—

< 2 bouts to R3

Marwan Rahiki

—

< 2 bouts to R3

Neither fighter has reached the third round in enough UFC bouts to read a reliable pace pattern — most of their fights end early. The round-by-round pace below is shown for what rounds there are.

McMillen

RahikiOutput / min

Faded points are drawn from a single bout that reached that round, so they’re less reliable than the solid points averaged over many fights.

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

McMillen

Rahikilanded / min

Takedown attempts

McMillen

Rahikiattempts / min

Control time

McMillen

Rahiki% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Tommy McMillen	16.8	16.5	4.8	0.00	7%	2
R1	Marwan Rahiki	8.5	8.5	6.3	0.00	1%	2
R2	Tommy McMillen	19.4	19.4	5.2	0.00	0%	1
R2	Marwan Rahiki	10.5	9.2	5.0	0.00	32%	1
R3	Tommy McMillen	23.8	23.3	2.0	0.00	12%	1
R3	Marwan Rahiki	—	—	—	—	—	—

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.