Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

25 fighters · / 100

1
Alejandro Perez
4-1 as underdog · 80%
59.0
2
Rani Yahya
4-2 as underdog · 67%
53.1
3
Bryan Caraway
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
4
Russell Doane
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
5
Frankie Saenz
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
6
Pedro Munhoz
5-6 as underdog · 45%
42.1
7
Guido Cannetti
4-5 as underdog · 44%
40.9
8
Raphael Assuncao
4-6 as underdog · 40%
37.9
9
Chad Anheliger
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
10
Alex Caceres
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
11
John Dodson
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
12
Jose Quinonez
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
13
Marlon Moraes
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
14
Brian Kelleher
3-5 as underdog · 38%
35.9
15
Yves Jabouin
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
16
Vaughan Lee
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
17
Johnny Eduardo
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
18
Joe Soto
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
19
Andre Soukhamthath
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
20
Eddie Wineland
2-8 as underdog · 20%
23.7
21
Cody Stamann
1-5 as underdog · 17%
23.1
22
Takeya Mizugaki
1-5 as underdog · 17%
23.1
23
Urijah Faber
1-6 as underdog · 14%
21.0
24
Brad Pickett
1-6 as underdog · 14%
21.0
25
Francisco Rivera
0-5 as underdog · 0%
14.6