Proprietary metrics · Upset Index
Upset Index
The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.
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50 fighters · / 100- 1
Jan Blachowicz10-3 as underdog · 77%66.5 - 2
Amanda Nunes6-1 as underdog · 86%66.5 - 3
Sean Strickland7-2 as underdog · 78%63.9 - 4
Brandon Moreno5-1 as underdog · 83%63.1 - 5
Justin Gaethje8-3 as underdog · 73%62.1 - 6
Rani Yahya6-2 as underdog · 75%60.9 - 7
Fabricio Werdum4-1 as underdog · 80%59.0 - 8
Krzysztof Jotko4-1 as underdog · 80%59.0 - 9
Aiemann Zahabi4-1 as underdog · 80%59.0 - 10
James Krause4-1 as underdog · 80%59.0 - 11
Michael Trizano4-1 as underdog · 80%59.0 - 12
Brian Ortega5-2 as underdog · 71%57.4 - 13
Carla Esparza5-2 as underdog · 71%57.4 - 14
Brendan Allen5-2 as underdog · 71%57.4 - 15
Ben Rothwell5-2 as underdog · 71%57.4 - 16
Dustin Poirier6-3 as underdog · 67%56.2 - 17
Yoel Romero6-3 as underdog · 67%56.2 - 18
Robert Whittaker7-4 as underdog · 64%55.4 - 19
Deiveson Figueiredo7-4 as underdog · 64%55.4 - 20
Belal Muhammad7-4 as underdog · 64%55.4 - 21
Mario Bautista4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 22
Chris Weidman4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 23
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 24
Sean Pierson4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 25
Kenny Robertson4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 26
Alejandro Perez4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 27
Ketlen Vieira4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 28
Nikita Krylov4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 29
Abel Trujillo5-3 as underdog · 63%52.6 - 30
Aljamain Sterling5-3 as underdog · 63%52.6 - 31CPConstantinos Philippou5-3 as underdog · 63%52.6
- 32
Beneil Dariush6-4 as underdog · 60%52.2 - 33
Rob Font6-4 as underdog · 60%52.2 - 34
Daniel Kelly6-4 as underdog · 60%52.2 - 35
Michael Johnson7-5 as underdog · 58%52.0 - 36
Julian Erosa7-5 as underdog · 58%52.0 - 37
Charles Oliveira8-6 as underdog · 57%51.7 - 38
Derrick Lewis7-6 as underdog · 54%48.9 - 39
Raquel Pennington6-5 as underdog · 55%48.7 - 40
Thiago Alves5-4 as underdog · 56%48.6 - 41
Diego Ferreira5-4 as underdog · 56%48.6 - 42
Derek Brunson5-4 as underdog · 56%48.6 - 43
Alexander Volkov5-4 as underdog · 56%48.6 - 44
Chan Sung Jung5-4 as underdog · 56%48.6 - 45
Anthony Perosh5-4 as underdog · 56%48.6 - 46
Roman Dolidze5-4 as underdog · 56%48.6 - 47
Paul Felder5-4 as underdog · 56%48.6 - 48
Carlos Condit5-4 as underdog · 56%48.6 - 49
Matt Frevola4-3 as underdog · 57%48.3 - 50
Viviane Araujo4-3 as underdog · 57%48.3