Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

21 fighters · / 100

1
Sean Strickland
4-1 as underdog · 80%
59.0
2
Chris Weidman
4-1 as underdog · 80%
59.0
3
Brendan Allen
5-2 as underdog · 71%
57.4
4
Robert Whittaker
6-3 as underdog · 67%
56.2
5
Roman Dolidze
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
6
Brunno Ferreira
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
7
Andre Muniz
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
8
Jared Cannonier
4-4 as underdog · 50%
44.3
9
Chris Curtis
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
10
Roman Kopylov
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
11
Jack Hermansson
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
12
JunYong Park
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
13
Gerald Meerschaert
7-13 as underdog · 35%
34.6
14
Cody Brundage
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
15
Brad Tavares
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
16
Kelvin Gastelum
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
17
Dustin Stoltzfus
2-5 as underdog · 29%
30.1
18
Bruno Silva
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
19
Eryk Anders
1-6 as underdog · 14%
21.0
20
Marvin Vettori
0-5 as underdog · 0%
14.6
21
Marc-Andre Barriault
0-6 as underdog · 0%
13.1