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Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

46 fighters · / 100
  1. 1
    Sean Pierson
    Sean Pierson
    4-2 as underdog · 67%
    53.1
  2. 2
    Kenny Robertson
    Kenny Robertson
    4-2 as underdog · 67%
    53.1
  3. 3
    Carlos Condit
    Carlos Condit
    5-3 as underdog · 63%
    52.6
  4. 4
    Li Jingliang
    Li Jingliang
    5-3 as underdog · 63%
    52.6
  5. 5
    Diego Sanchez
    Diego Sanchez
    5-4 as underdog · 56%
    48.6
  6. 6
    Rick Story
    Rick Story
    4-3 as underdog · 57%
    48.3
  7. 7
    Martin Kampmann
    Martin Kampmann
    4-3 as underdog · 57%
    48.3
  8. 8
    Patrick Cote
    Patrick Cote
    3-2 as underdog · 60%
    47.9
  9. 9
    Anthony Rocco Martin
    Anthony Rocco Martin
    3-2 as underdog · 60%
    47.9
  10. 10
    Brian Ebersole
    Brian Ebersole
    3-2 as underdog · 60%
    47.9
  11. 11
    Demian Maia
    Demian Maia
    5-5 as underdog · 50%
    45.1
  12. 12
    Siyar Bahadurzada
    Siyar Bahadurzada
    3-3 as underdog · 50%
    43.1
  13. 13
    Thiago Alves
    Thiago Alves
    3-3 as underdog · 50%
    43.1
  14. 14
    Tyron Woodley
    Tyron Woodley
    3-3 as underdog · 50%
    43.1
  15. 15
    Robbie Lawler
    Robbie Lawler
    5-6 as underdog · 45%
    42.1
  16. 16
    Matt Brown
    Matt Brown
    7-9 as underdog · 44%
    41.6
  17. 17
    Mike Pyle
    Mike Pyle
    5-7 as underdog · 42%
    39.5
  18. 18
    Mike Perry
    Mike Perry
    3-4 as underdog · 43%
    39.2
  19. 19
    Duane Ludwig
    Duane Ludwig
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  20. 20
    Charlie Brenneman
    Charlie Brenneman
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  21. 21
    Dwight Grant
    Dwight Grant
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  22. 22
    George Sullivan
    George Sullivan
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  23. 23
    Seth Baczynski
    Seth Baczynski
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  24. 24
    Nate Diaz
    Nate Diaz
    3-5 as underdog · 38%
    35.9
  25. 25
    Jorge Masvidal
    Jorge Masvidal
    3-6 as underdog · 33%
    33.2
  26. 26
    Dhiego Lima
    Dhiego Lima
    2-4 as underdog · 33%
    33.1
  27. 27
    Danny Roberts
    Danny Roberts
    2-4 as underdog · 33%
    33.1
  28. 28
    Mickey Gall
    Mickey Gall
    2-4 as underdog · 33%
    33.1
  29. 29
    Song Kenan
    Song Kenan
    2-4 as underdog · 33%
    33.1
  30. 30
    Peter Sobotta
    Peter Sobotta
    2-4 as underdog · 33%
    33.1
  31. 31
    Sergio Moraes
    Sergio Moraes
    2-4 as underdog · 33%
    33.1
  32. 32
    Zak Ottow
    Zak Ottow
    2-4 as underdog · 33%
    33.1
  33. 33
    Alan Jouban
    Alan Jouban
    2-4 as underdog · 33%
    33.1
  34. 34
    Ben Saunders
    Ben Saunders
    3-7 as underdog · 30%
    30.8
  35. 35
    Jared Gooden
    Jared Gooden
    2-5 as underdog · 29%
    30.1
  36. 36
    Donald Cerrone
    Donald Cerrone
    2-5 as underdog · 29%
    30.1
  37. 37
    Tim Means
    Tim Means
    2-5 as underdog · 29%
    30.1
  38. 38
    John Howard
    John Howard
    2-5 as underdog · 29%
    30.1
  39. 39
    Bryan Barberena
    Bryan Barberena
    2-5 as underdog · 29%
    30.1
  40. 40
    Alex Oliveira
    Alex Oliveira
    2-6 as underdog · 25%
    27.6
  41. 41
    DaMarques Johnson
    DaMarques Johnson
    1-4 as underdog · 20%
    25.7
  42. 42
    David Zawada
    David Zawada
    1-4 as underdog · 20%
    25.7
  43. 43
    TJ Waldburger
    TJ Waldburger
    1-4 as underdog · 20%
    25.7
  44. 44
    Jake Ellenberger
    Jake Ellenberger
    2-8 as underdog · 20%
    23.7
  45. 45
    Takashi Sato
    Takashi Sato
    0-5 as underdog · 0%
    14.6
  46. 46
    Josh Koscheck
    Josh Koscheck
    0-5 as underdog · 0%
    14.6