Mauricio Ruffy vs Michael Chandler Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an advantage in this matchup — offense weighed against the opponent's defense. Tap any row to see the numbers behind it. Descriptive — not a prediction.

Mauricio Ruffy

edge

Michael Chandler

Striking

◂ Ruffy

Ruffy out-strikes Chandler

Effective offense

A+

87th

2.4

+8

A

79th

2.0

Defense

C

53rd

58%

+32

F

21st

43%

KO power

B

12 KO

0.8 KD

+18

C

11 KO

0.3 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

Chandler ▸

Chandler has the bigger wrestling edge on Ruffy — blunted by Ruffy's takedown defense

Takedowns landed

F

9th

0.0

+53

B

63rd

1.7

Takedown accuracy

0%

41%

Takedown defense

A

78th

82%

+34

C

44th

56%

Control time

F

14th

0.6 min

+42

C

55th

3.0 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

Chandler ▸

Chandler is the bigger submission threat on Ruffy

Submission attempts

F

18th

0.0

+24

C

42nd

0.2

Sub win rate

B

58th

0%

0 subs

Even

B

60th

0%

0 subs

Submission defense

D

29th

20%

Even

D

36th

14%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

◂ Ruffy

Ruffy is more likely to finish Chandler

Finish rate

B

67th

75%

Even

B

68th

100%

KO durability

B

59th

0%

+31

D

28th

29%

Submission defense

D

29th

20%

Even

D

36th

14%

See full Finishes →

Pace

Chandler ▸

Chandler pushes the higher work rate over the fight

Work rate / min — full fight

4.5

5.3

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

4.5

6.0

Pace trend—-28%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

◂ Ruffy

Ruffy is in better recent form than Chandler

Win rate (career)

80%

29%

After a win

67%

0%

Last 5

80%

20%

Win streakW1L3

See full Form →

Schedule

Even

Comparable level of opposition

Schedule strength

51%

87%

Win quality

69%

10%

Ranked opponents

3

7

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

See full Schedule →

Activity

◂ Ruffy

Ruffy is fresher and more active than Chandler

Last bout

4mo

14mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

2

0

Bouts, last 24 mo

4

2

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

◂ Ruffy

Ruffy 4" reach · Ruffy 8 cm · Ruffy 11y younger · Closed-stance matchup

Mauricio RuffyvsMichael Chandler

29

Age

11y

younger

40

5'11"

180cm

Height

3"

taller

5'8"

173cm

75"

191cm

Reach

4"

reach

71"

180cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Each edge weighs one fighter’s offense against the other’s defense in this matchup, not each fighter vs the division in isolation — so a strong defense reduces (not erases) the opposing threat. Tap a row for the percentiles behind it. Thin samples are dimmed; too little data reads “not enough data.”

Core metrics

The shape of the matchup at a glance — each fighter's career rates as a percentile within the division. Descriptive, not a prediction.

Mauricio RuffyMichael Chandler

RuffyPercentileChandler

Striking/min4.194.04

Accuracy%58%49%

Defense%58%43%

Takedowns/150.02.0

TD defense%85%61%

Submissions/150.00.6

Career rate as a percentile within the lightweight (419 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Markets

Market comparison

Kalshi · updated 6m ago

Mauricio Ruffy

Consensus

82%▲ 1

Best price to bet Ruffy

Kalshi83¢bestSportsbook-60082%

Michael Chandler

Consensus

19%▲ 2

Best price to bet Chandler

Kalshi20¢Sportsbook+42518%best

Ruffy 82%19% Chandler

$182k vol · $151k OI$1.3M vol · $1.2M OI

Sportsbook

Method of victory

KO/TKO

SUB

DEC

Mauricio Ruffy

58%-200

8%+1000

15%+480

Michael Chandler

10%+750

5%+1700

KO/TKO

Submission

Decision

Mauricio Ruffy

58%-200

8%+1000

15%+480

Michael Chandler

10%+750

5%+1700

Total rounds

Line · 2.5

Over28%+230
Under72%-360

Goes the distance

Yes21%+350
No79%-530

UFC betting history

Career

RuffyMauricio Ruffy

ChandlerMichael Chandler

3-175%

As favorite

1-0100%

As underdog

1-517%

Line movement

Win probability over time

tap to toggle

Notes

Consensus averages Kalshi’s real-money price with the sportsbook’s vig-free probability. “Best price” is the cheaper cost to back a fighter — lower = better value.

Sportsbook percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts.

Career splits

RuffyMauricio Ruffy

Stat

ChandlerMichael Chandler

3

0

KO / TKO

2

0

1

Submission

0

1

0

Decision

0

2

7:51

Avg fight time

11:10

Mauricio Ruffy’s splits

vs Chandler

vs Orthodox

3-0100%

vs Southpaw

0-10%

vs Switch

1-0100%

vs Longer reach

0-0no data

vs Shorter reach

4-180%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile.

Michael Chandler’s splits

vs Ruffy

vs Orthodox

1-420%

vs Southpaw

0-10%

vs Switch

1-0100%

vs Longer reach

2-433%

vs Shorter reach

0-10%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Mauricio RuffyvsMichael Chandler

29

Age

11y

younger

40

5'11"

180cm

Height

3"

taller

5'8"

173cm

75"

191cm

Reach

4"

reach

71"

180cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense mapped against the other's defense — where one attacks meets where the other gets hit, across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

B

70th

+19

C

50th

Ruffy has the striking edge (+19).

Attacking

Ruffy’s offensevsChandler’s defense

Where Ruffy attacks (green = high volume) vs where Chandler gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Ruffy’s green zones meeting Chandler’s red zones are the openings.

Mauricio RuffyOffense

Head81%79th127
Body7%39th11
Leg12%54th18

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Michael ChandlerDefense

Head71%20th267
Body9%63rd34
Leg20%22nd73

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Ruffy — by position

83%Standing

Standing83%130
Clinch3%5
Ground13%21

Chandler — absorbed by position

75%Standing

Standing75%282
Clinch5%18
Ground20%74

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Ruffy’s offensevsChandler’s defense

Head

A

79th

38.7

+58

F

20th

44.6

Body

D

39th

7.4

+23

B

63rd

8.0

Leg

C

54th

7.5

+32

F

22nd

11.9

Chandler’s offensevsRuffy’s defense

Head

A

73rd

36.6

+16

C

57th

27.4

Body

B

69th

12.6

+57

F

12th

17.5

Leg

C

50th

6.8

+26

F

24th

11.4

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Mauricio Ruffy	top 21% of division38.7	55%	above division average27.4	127
Head	Michael Chandler	top 27% of division36.6	44%	well below average44.6	210
Body	Mauricio Ruffy	below division average7.4	69%	bottom of the division17.5	11
Body	Michael Chandler	above division average12.6	72%	above division average8.0	73
Leg	Mauricio Ruffy	around division average7.5	86%	well below average11.4	18
Leg	Michael Chandler	around division average6.8	86%	well below average11.9	32

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.

UFC only

Mauricio Ruffy

Michael Chandler

Each metric graded on the division — the bar leans toward whoever wins that part of the grappling exchange (longer + greener = a bigger edge).

Overall Grappling

Grappling

C

51st

Even

C

54th

Evenly matched grappling — no clear edge either way.

Takedowns

D

39th

0.0

+23

B

63rd

1.7

Takedown accuracy

0%

0/1

B

60th

41%

9/22

Takedown defense

A

78th

82%

14/17

+34

C

44th

56%

9/16

Submission threat

C

50th

0.0

Even

C

50th

0.2

Control time

D

38th

0.6 min

+18

C

55th

3.0 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Mauricio Ruffy	Michael Chandler
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	0.00	1.79
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	0%0 / 1	41%9 / 22
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	82%14 / 17	56%9 / 16
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.00	0.21
Control time / 15 (min)career total	0.6 min1:42	3.0 min15:32
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	2.3 min5:58	4.5 min23:39

All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time. Accuracy under 8 career attempts is shown raw and ungraded — too small a sample to rate against the division.

Schedule Score

Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.

UFC only

Mauricio Ruffy

49

Schedule Score

Michael Chandler

60

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

39 min

5 bouts

Octagon time

39 min

more

78 min

7 bouts

Schedule strength

51%

87%

Win quality

69%

10%

Ranked opponents

3

7

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Opponent quality distribution

every UFC bout, bucketed by who the opponent was at the time

Mauricio Ruffy

5 bouts

1

2

1

Michael Chandler

7 bouts

2

5

Champion

Top-5

Top-15

Building

Unproven

Pre-UFC opposition

non-UFC slate for Mauricio Ruffy, from opponents’ full pro records

Mauricio Ruffy

Moderate

Opponents' combined record

84-47

.641 win rate

Winning-record opponents

3 of 9

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

9

all opponents have records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Mauricio Ruffy	Michael Chandler
Champion	—	0-2
Top-5	0-1	2-3
Top-15	2-0	—
Building	1-0	—
Unproven	1-0	—

Mauricio Ruffy — bouts

Michael Chandler — bouts

All figures are 0–100 ratings (shown as %), not percentages of anything literal. Schedule strength = the average quality of every UFC opponent faced (win or lose). Win quality = the average quality of the opponents actually beaten. The composite Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with win quality (35%). Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, falling back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. For fighters with limited UFC experience the headline is held toward a rookie baseline, so debut / low-sample fighters read lower than established names. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts (non-UFC fights dashed + tagged), current trajectory, and the level of opposition going into this matchup.

Mauricio Ruffy

Michael Chandler

Ruffy — last 5

recent → old

Chandler — last 5

recent → old

Last 5 record

4-1

1-4

Current streak

W1

L3

Ranked opps

3 of 5

5 of 5

Layoff

4 mo

14 mo

Finishing & durability

How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.

Mauricio Ruffy

Michael Chandler

When their fights end

every UFC finish on the fight clock

Ruffy3W–1L by finish

R1

R2

R3

Chandler2W–3L by finish

R1

R2

R3

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑14%·Ruffy

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑14%·Ruffy

A

78th

92%

+17

B

61st

78%

Goes the distance

Both finishers

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Both finishers

7%

27%

KO durability

↑8%·Ruffy

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

↑8%·Ruffy

C

52nd

7%

+30

F

22nd

15%

Submission defense

↑4%·Chandler

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

↑4%·Chandler

C

43rd

7%

+18

B

61st

3%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Mauricio Ruffy	Michael Chandler
Wins
by KO / TKO	12(92%)	11(48%)
by submission	0(0%)	7(30%)
by decision	1(8%)	5(22%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	1(50%)	5(50%)
by submission	1(50%)	1(10%)
by decision	0(0%)	4(40%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

Finish-time and round-by-round numbers are UFC-only and don’t change with this toggle.

KO history

UFC fights only — knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head, then when the last finish landed, and on whom.

Mauricio Ruffy

vs

Michael Chandler

67%

4 KO/TKO in 6 bouts

Knockout rate

29%

2 KO/TKO in 7 bouts

4

3.1 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

2

1.0 / 100 head

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

2

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

0

0.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

3

1.1 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Mauricio RuffyFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
vs Benoit Saint Denis9 months ago
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · Sep 6, 2025 · R2 · 2:56

Michael ChandlerFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Paddy Pimblett1y 2mo ago
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025 · R3 · 3:07
Last time submitted
vs Dustin Poirier3y 7mo ago
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Nov 12, 2022 · R3 · 2:00

Pace & fade

How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.

UFC only

Mauricio Ruffy

—

< 2 bouts to R3

Michael Chandler

61%

R3 vs R1 · 4 bouts reaching R3

Chandler drops to 61% of round-1 output by round 3 (within fights reaching round 3). Ruffy hasn't reached the third round in enough UFC bouts to read a pace pattern yet.

Ruffy

Chandler ▼ FADESOutput / min

Faded points are drawn from a single bout that reached that round, so they’re less reliable than the solid points averaged over many fights.

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Ruffy

Chandlerlanded / min

Takedown attempts

Ruffy

Chandlerattempts / min

Control time

Ruffy

Chandler% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Mauricio Ruffy	3.4	3.2	2.7	0.05	4%	5
R1	Michael Chandler	6.8	4.8	4.1	0.31	26%	7
R2	Mauricio Ruffy	5.5	5.2	4.6	0.00	7%	3
R2	Michael Chandler	5.2	3.2	5.4	0.34	25%	6
R3	Mauricio Ruffy	4.4	4.4	9.0	0.00	1%	1
R3	Michael Chandler	3.8	3.0	6.8	0.26	0%	4
R4	Mauricio Ruffy	—	—	—	—	—	—
R4	Michael Chandler	2.2	1.6	2.8	0.20	0%	1
R5	Mauricio Ruffy	—	—	—	—	—	—
R5	Michael Chandler	9.6	8.0	2.4	0.00	40%	1

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.