Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Carli Judice

edge

Jeisla Chaves

Striking

◂ Judice

Judice out-strikes Chaves (thin sample)

Effective offense4.7—

Defense57%—

KO power

C

5 KO

0.5 KD

+14

D

4 KO

0.0 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

Not enough data

Takedowns landed

D

34th

0.7

+55

A+

89th

3.0

Takedown accuracy

50%

Even

50%

Takedown defense

83%

50%

Control time

F

21st

1.2 min

+52

A

73rd

4.5 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

Chaves ▸

Chaves is the bigger submission threat on Judice (thin sample)

Submission attempts

F

15th

0.0

+73

A+

88th

1.0

Sub win rate

C

44th

0%

0 subs

Even

C

44th

0%

0 subs

Submission defense

C

48th

0%

Even

C

48th

0%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

◂ Judice

Judice is more likely to finish Chaves (thin sample)

Finish rate

B

67th

67%

+28

D

39th

0%

KO durability

D

40th

0%

+8

D

32nd

0%

Submission defense

C

44th

0%

Even

C

44th

0%

See full Finishes →

Pace

◂ Judice

Judice pushes the higher work rate over the fight (thin sample)

Work rate / min — full fight

9.5

6.7

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

8.4

6.7

Pace trend+17%/rd—

See full Pace →

Form

Chaves ▸

Chaves is in better recent form than Judice (thin sample)

Win rate (career)

75%

100%

After a win100%—

Last 5

80%

100%

Win streakW3W5

See full Form →

Schedule

Even

Comparable level of opposition (thin sample)

Schedule strength

18%

8%

Win quality

47%

56%

Ranked opponents

0

Even

0

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Common opp (1)1-01-0

See full Schedule →

Activity

Chaves ▸

Chaves is fresher and more active than Judice

Last bout

5mo

1mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

2

Even

2

Bouts, last 24 mo

3

2

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

◂ Judice

Judice 3 cm

Carli JudicevsJeisla Chaves

27

Age

2y

younger

29

5'7"

170cm

Height

1"

taller

5'6"

168cm

68"

173cm

Reach

Even

68"

173cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Markets

UFC betting history

Career

JudiceCarli Judice

ChavesJeisla Chaves

Notes

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

JudiceCarli Judice

Stat

ChavesJeisla Chaves

2

0

KO / TKO

0

—

0

Submission

0

—

1

Decision

1

—

10:48

Avg fight time

15:00

Carli Judice’s splits

vs Chaves

vs Orthodox

3-0100%

vs Southpaw

0-10%

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

0-0no data

vs Shorter reach

3-175%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Jeisla Chaves’s splits

vs Judice

vs Orthodox

1-0100%

vs Southpaw

0-0no data

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

0-0no data

vs Shorter reach

1-0100%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Carli JudicevsJeisla Chaves

27

Age

2y

younger

29

5'7"

170cm

Height

1"

taller

5'6"

168cm

68"

173cm

Reach

Even

68"

173cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

B

63rd

+28

D

35th

Judice holds a decisive striking edge (+28).

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Judice’s offensevsChaves’s defense

Head

A+

97th

62.2

+57

D

40th

38.7

Body

A+

90th

22.3

+45

C

45th

14.1

Leg

C

52nd

8.5

Even

C

52nd

8.7

Chaves’s offensevsJudice’s defense

Head

C

55th

35.1

+25

D

29th

44.4

Body

B

61st

15.0

+10

C

51st

13.2

Leg

C

54th

9.0

Even

C

56th

8.0

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Carli Judice	elite — top of division62.2	42%	well below average44.4	260
Head	Jeisla Chaves	above division average35.1	53%	below division average38.7	35
Body	Carli Judice	top 10% of division22.3	70%	around division average13.2	91
Body	Jeisla Chaves	above division average15.0	83%	around division average14.1	20
Leg	Carli Judice	around division average8.5	92%	above division average8.0	23
Leg	Jeisla Chaves	around division average9.0	100%	around division average8.7	9

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Carli Judice

Jeisla Chaves

Overall Grappling

Grappling

C

54th

+15

B

69th

Chaves has the grappling edge (+15).

Takedowns

C

49th

0.7

+23

A

72nd

3.0

Takedown accuracy

50%

2/4

50%

3/6

Takedown defense

A

82nd

83%

24/29

50%

2/4

Submission threat

C

45th

0.0

+28

A

74th

1.0

Control time

D

40th

1.2 min

+21

B

61st

4.5 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Carli Judice	Jeisla Chaves
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	0.72	3.03
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	50%2 / 4	50%3 / 6
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	83%24 / 29	50%2 / 4
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.00	1.01
Control time / 15 (min)career total	1.2 min3:31	4.5 min4:29
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	2.5 min7:18	3.3 min3:18

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Common opponents

The single UFC opponent both fighters have faced. Reads as a directional signal, not a verdict.

Carli Judice

Jeisla Chaves

Record vs common opponents

Even

1-0

1-0

1-0

1-0

Both won

Decision (Split)R3· 5:00

W

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Carli Judice

31

Schedule Score

Jeisla Chaves

28

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

43 min

4 bouts

Octagon time

28 min

more

15 min

1 bout

Schedule strength

18%

8%

Win quality

47%

56%

Ranked opponents

0

Even

0

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Pre-UFC opposition

non-UFC slate for each fighter, from opponents’ full pro records

Judice faced the tougher slate — opponents averaged .231 career win rate vs .167 for Chaves.

Carli Judice

Developmental

Opponents' combined record

6-20

.231 win rate

Winning-record opponents

0 of 3

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

3

all opponents have records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

Jeisla Chaves

Developmental

Opponents' combined record

3-15

.167 win rate

Winning-record opponents

0 of 6

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

6

all opponents have records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Carli Judice	Jeisla Chaves
Top-15	0-1	—
Building	1-0	—
Unproven	2-0	1-0

Carli Judice — bouts

Jeisla Chaves — bouts

W vs Yuneisy Duben8
Jun 6, 2026 · Unproven

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Carli Judice

Jeisla Chaves

Judice — last 5

recent → old

WBAYOU

KO R1

Medina

May ’23

Chaves — last 5

recent → old

WDF

KO R3

Sousa

Apr ’25

WGFC

DEC

Silva

Jul ’24

WGFC

KO R1

Lalit

Apr ’24

WKING

KO R1

Almeida

Mar ’24

Last 5 record

4-1

5-0

Current streak

W3

W5

Ranked opps

0 of 5

Even

0 of 5

Layoff

5 mo

34 d

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Carli Judice

Jeisla Chaves

Post-result bounce

SituationJudice Chaves

After a loss

1-0100%

—

After a win

2-0100%

—

Camp length

SituationJudice Chaves

Typical camp100–180 days

1-0100%

—

Long layoff> 180 days

2-0100%

—

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Carli Judice

Jeisla Chaves

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Judice5W–0L by finish · 80% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

Chaves4W–0L by finish · 75% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑26%·Judice

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑26%·Judice

A

72nd

83%

+18

C

54th

57%

Goes the distance

Even

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Even

38%

43%

KO durability

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

Even

C

49th

0%

Even

C

49th

0%

Submission defense

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

Even

B

59th

0%

Even

B

59th

0%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Carli Judice	Jeisla Chaves
Wins
by KO / TKO	5(83%)	4(57%)
by submission	0(0%)	0(0%)
by decision	1(17%)	3(43%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	0(0%)	0
by submission	0(0%)	0
by decision	2(100%)	0

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Carli Judice

vs

Jeisla Chaves

40%

2 KO/TKO in 5 bouts

Knockout rate

0%

0 KO/TKO in 2 bouts

2

0.8 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

0

0.0 / 100 head

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

0

0.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

0

0.0 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Carli JudiceFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Jeisla ChavesFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Carli Judice

140%

R3 vs R1 · 3 bouts reaching R3

Jeisla Chaves

—

< 2 bouts to R3

Judice lifts to 140% of round-1 output by round 3 (within fights reaching round 3). Chaves hasn't reached the third round in enough UFC bouts to read a pace pattern yet.

Judice ▲ BUILDS

ChavesOutput / min

Faded points are drawn from a single bout that reached that round, so they’re less reliable than the solid points averaged over many fights.

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Judice

Chaveslanded / min

Takedown attempts

Judice

Chavesattempts / min

Control time

Judice

Chaves% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Carli Judice	8.5	8.2	4.7	0.00	10%	4
R1	Jeisla Chaves	5.6	5.6	5.2	0.00	0%	1
R2	Carli Judice	8.2	7.3	4.9	0.20	8%	3
R2	Jeisla Chaves	7.8	3.6	2.4	0.60	60%	1
R3	Carli Judice	11.7	11.2	4.3	0.09	6%	3
R3	Jeisla Chaves	6.6	3.6	4.8	0.60	29%	1

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.