Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Brady Hiestand

edge

Rinya Nakamura

Striking

Nakamura ▸

Nakamura out-strikes Hiestand

Effective offense

C

48th

1.4

+19

B

67th

1.7

Defense

D

41st

51%

+50

A+

91st

63%

KO power

D

3 KO

0.0 KD

+13

C

6 KO

0.6 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

Nakamura ▸

Nakamura has the bigger wrestling edge on Hiestand (thin sample)

Takedowns landed

A+

97th

4.8

+24

A

73rd

2.3

Takedown accuracy

B

66th

46%

+27

A+

93rd

88%

Takedown defense

43%

100%

Control time

A+

95th

7.1 min

Even

A+

96th

7.8 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

Even

Both real submission threats

Submission attempts

A

82nd

1.1

Even

A+

85th

1.3

Sub win rate

A

72nd

38%

3 subs

+12

B

59th

10%

1 sub

Submission defense

D

41st

0%

Even

D

41st

0%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

◂ Hiestand

Hiestand is more likely to finish Nakamura

Finish rate

B

64th

67%

+23

D

41st

50%

KO durability

C

47th

0%

Even

C

48th

0%

Submission defense

D

40th

0%

Even

D

41st

0%

See full Finishes →

Pace

◂ Hiestand

Hiestand pushes the higher work rate over the fight — Hiestand's pace builds while Nakamura's fades

Work rate / min — full fight

6.7

5.3

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

6.3

5.4

Pace trend

+4%/rd

-9%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

Even

Comparable recent form

Win rate (career)

75%

80%

After a win

100%

67%

Last 5

80%

Even

80%

Win streakW3W1

See full Form →

Schedule

Even

Comparable level of opposition

Schedule strength

14%

10%

Win quality

59%

53%

Ranked opponents

0

Even

0

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Common opp (1)1-01-0

See full Schedule →

Activity

Nakamura ▸

Nakamura is fresher and more active than Hiestand

Last bout

27mo

13mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

0

Even

0

Bouts, last 24 mo

0

2

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

◂ Hiestand

Hiestand 3" reach · Hiestand 3 cm · Hiestand 4y younger · Open-stance matchup

Brady HiestandvsRinya Nakamura

27

Age

4y

younger

31

5'8"

173cm

Height

1"

taller

5'7"

170cm

71"

180cm

Reach

3"

reach

68"

173cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Brady HiestandRinya Nakamura

Percentile

Striking/min2.703.27

Accuracy%50%52%

Defense%51%63%

Takedowns/154.82.6

TD defense%42%100%

Submissions/151.11.4

Career rate as a percentile within the bantamweight (244 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Pre-UFC opposition

non-UFC slate for each fighter, from opponents’ full pro records

Nakamura faced the tougher slate — opponents averaged .584 career win rate vs .276 for Hiestand.

Brady Hiestand

Developmental

Opponents' combined record

16-42

.276 win rate

Winning-record opponents

1 of 6

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

6

all opponents have records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

Rinya Nakamura

Moderate

Opponents' combined record

45-32-8

.584 win rate

Winning-record opponents

2 of 4

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

4

all opponents have records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

Markets

UFC betting history

Career

HiestandBrady Hiestand

NakamuraRinya Nakamura

Notes

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

HiestandBrady Hiestand

Stat

NakamuraRinya Nakamura

1

0

KO / TKO

2

0

1

0

Submission

0

1

Decision

2

1

14:03

Avg fight time

9:19

Brady Hiestand’s splits

vs Nakamura

vs Orthodox

3-175%

vs Southpaw

0-0no data

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

0-0no data

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Rinya Nakamura’s splits

vs Hiestand

vs Southpaw

0-0no data

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Shorter reach

1-0100%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Brady HiestandvsRinya Nakamura

27

Age

4y

younger

31

5'8"

173cm

Height

1"

taller

5'7"

170cm

71"

180cm

Reach

3"

reach

68"

173cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

C

43rd

+27

A

70th

Nakamura holds a decisive striking edge (+27).

Attacking

Hiestand’s offensevsNakamura’s defense

Where Hiestand attacks (green = high volume) vs where Nakamura gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Hiestand’s green zones meeting Nakamura’s red zones are the openings.

Brady HiestandOffense

Head74%52nd112
Body18%46th28
Leg8%34th12

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Rinya NakamuraDefense

Head56%73rd40
Body21%68th15
Leg23%58th16

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Hiestand — by position

84%Standing

Standing84%127
Clinch9%14
Ground7%11

Nakamura — absorbed by position

82%Standing

Standing82%58
Clinch7%5
Ground11%8

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Hiestand’s offensevsNakamura’s defense

Head

C

52nd

30.6

+21

A

73rd

24.6

Body

C

46th

9.0

+22

B

68th

8.1

Leg

D

34th

5.4

+24

B

58th

7.0

Nakamura’s offensevsHiestand’s defense

Head

D

41st

27.5

+10

D

31st

41.5

Body

C

51st

9.9

+12

B

63rd

8.8

Leg

B

60th

8.5

Even

B

63rd

6.4

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Brady Hiestand	around division average30.6	46%	below division average41.5	112
Head	Rinya Nakamura	below division average27.5	42%	top 27% of division24.6	73
Body	Brady Hiestand	around division average9.0	72%	above division average8.8	28
Body	Rinya Nakamura	around division average9.9	85%	above division average8.1	28
Leg	Brady Hiestand	below division average5.4	75%	above division average6.4	12
Leg	Rinya Nakamura	above division average8.5	73%	above division average7.0	27

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Brady Hiestand

Rinya Nakamura

Overall Grappling

Grappling

A

79th

Even

A

82nd

Evenly matched grappling — no clear edge either way.

Takedowns

A+

89th

4.8

+20

B

70th

2.3

Takedown accuracy

B

66th

46%

18/39

+27

A+

93rd

88%

7/8

Takedown defense

43%

3/7

100%

1/1

Submission threat

A

76th

1.1

Even

A

78th

1.3

Control time

A+

86th

7.1 min

Even

A+

89th

7.8 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Brady Hiestand	Rinya Nakamura
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	4.818	2.37
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	46%18 / 39	88%7 / 8
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	43%3 / 7	100%1 / 1
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	1.14	1.34
Control time / 15 (min)career total	7.1 min26:39	7.8 min24:15
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	2.1 min7:51	0.8 min2:37

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Common opponents

The single UFC opponent both fighters have faced. Reads as a directional signal, not a verdict.

Brady Hiestand

Rinya Nakamura

Record vs common opponents

Even

1-0

1-0

1-0

1-0

Both won

Decision (Unanimous)R3· 5:00

Nov 19, 2022

Nakamura

Aug 26, 2023

Decision (Unanimous)R3· 5:00

W

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Brady Hiestand

32

Schedule Score

Rinya Nakamura

30

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

56 min

4 bouts

Octagon time

9 min

more

47 min

5 bouts

Schedule strength

14%

10%

Win quality

59%

53%

Ranked opponents

0

Even

0

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Brady Hiestand	Rinya Nakamura
Building	2-0	0-1
Unproven	1-1	4-0

Brady Hiestand — bouts

Rinya Nakamura — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Brady Hiestand

Rinya Nakamura

Hiestand — last 5

recent → old

WEXCITEFI

SUB R1

Sargent

Feb ’20

Nakamura — last 5

recent → old

Last 5 record

4-1

Even

4-1

Current streak

W3

W1

Ranked opps

0 of 5

Even

0 of 5

Layoff

2.2 yr

13 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Brady Hiestand

Rinya Nakamura

Post-result bounce

SituationHiestand Nakamura

After a loss

1-0100%

After a win

2-0100%

2-167%

Camp length

SituationHiestand Nakamura

Typical camp100–180 days

1-0100%

Long layoff> 180 days

2-0100%

2-167%

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Brady Hiestand

Rinya Nakamura

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Hiestand6W–1L by finish

R1

R2

R3

Nakamura5W–0L by finish · 80% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑5%·Hiestand

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑5%·Hiestand

C

51st

75%

Even

C

47th

70%

Goes the distance

Even

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Even

30%

36%

KO durability

↑10%·Nakamura

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

↑10%·Nakamura

C

47th

10%

+20

B

68th

0%

Submission defense

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

Even

B

66th

0%

Even

B

67th

0%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Brady Hiestand	Rinya Nakamura
Wins
by KO / TKO	3(38%)	6(60%)
by submission	3(38%)	1(10%)
by decision	2(25%)	3(30%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	1(50%)	0(0%)
by submission	0(0%)	0(0%)
by decision	1(50%)	1(100%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Brady Hiestand

vs

Rinya Nakamura

25%

1 KO/TKO in 4 bouts

Knockout rate

40%

2 KO/TKO in 5 bouts

0

0.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

3

4.1 / 100 head

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

3

1.8 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

1

2.5 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Brady HiestandFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Rinya NakamuraFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Brady Hiestand

107%

R3 vs R1 · 4 bouts reaching R3

Rinya Nakamura

99%

R3 vs R1 · 3 bouts reaching R3

Cardio edge to Hiestand: Hiestand builds (+4% per round through round 3) while Nakamura fades (-9% per round through round 3). Within fights that reached round 3, Hiestand lifts to 107% of round-1 output by round 3, Nakamura 99%.

Hiestand ▲ BUILDS

Nakamura ▼ FADESOutput / min

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Hiestand

Nakamuralanded / min

Takedown attempts

Hiestand

Nakamuraattempts / min

Control time

Hiestand

Nakamura% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Brady Hiestand	7.0	2.5	3.0	0.85	50%	4
R1	Rinya Nakamura	6.1	3.5	1.7	0.18	50%	5
R2	Brady Hiestand	5.6	2.3	4.3	0.55	42%	4
R2	Rinya Nakamura	4.8	2.1	1.5	0.27	47%	3
R3	Brady Hiestand	7.6	3.5	3.9	0.68	50%	4
R3	Rinya Nakamura	5.1	2.5	1.4	0.07	59%	3

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.