Josh Hokit vs Derrick Lewis Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an advantage in this matchup — offense weighed against the opponent's defense. Tap any row to see the numbers behind it. Descriptive — not a prediction.

Josh Hokit

edge

Derrick Lewis

Striking

◂ Hokit

Hokit out-strikes Lewis

Effective offense

A+

99th

5.7

+53

C

47th

1.2

Defense

F

21st

44%

+24

C

45th

39%

KO power

B

5 KO

0.7 KD

Even

B

24 KO

0.4 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

◂ Hokit

Hokit has the bigger wrestling edge on Lewis

Takedowns landed

C

46th

0.7

Even

D

40th

0.5

Takedown accuracy

33%

26%

Takedown defense

B

59th

75%

+21

D

38th

52%

Control time

B

60th

3.2 min

+19

D

41st

1.7 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

Even

Little submission threat either way

Submission attempts

F

24th

0.0

Even

F

24th

0.0

Sub win rate

B

67th

0%

0 subs

Even

B

65th

0%

0 subs

Submission defense

D

34th

0%

Even

D

30th

6%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

Even

Both finishing threats

Finish rate

C

44th

67%

+9

C

54th

80%

KO durability

B

61st

0%

+18

C

43rd

26%

Submission defense

D

34th

0%

Even

D

30th

6%

See full Finishes →

Pace

◂ Hokit

Hokit pushes the higher work rate over the fight

Work rate / min — full fight

10.6

3.3

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

10.6

3.4

Pace trend—-3%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

◂ Hokit

Hokit is in better recent form than Lewis

Win rate (career)

100%

65%

After a win

100%

60%

Last 5

100%

60%

Win streakW5L1

See full Form →

Schedule

Lewis ▸

Lewis has faced the tougher schedule vs Hokit

Schedule strength

35%

70%

Win quality

79%

57%

Ranked opponents

1

22

Title-holder bouts

0

1

Common opp (1)1-01-0

See full Schedule →

Activity

◂ Hokit

Hokit is fresher and more active than Lewis

Last bout

2mo

5mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

4

2

Bouts, last 24 mo

4

2

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

Lewis ▸

Lewis 5" reach · Lewis 5 cm · Hokit 13y younger · Closed-stance matchup

Josh HokitvsDerrick Lewis

28

Age

13y

younger

41

6'1"

185cm

Height

2"

taller

6'3"

191cm

74"

187cm

Reach

5"

reach

79"

201cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Each edge weighs one fighter’s offense against the other’s defense in this matchup, not each fighter vs the division in isolation — so a strong defense reduces (not erases) the opposing threat. Tap a row for the percentiles behind it. Thin samples are dimmed; too little data reads “not enough data.”

Core metrics

The shape of the matchup at a glance — each fighter's career rates as a percentile within the division. Descriptive, not a prediction.

Josh HokitDerrick Lewis

HokitPercentileLewis

Striking/min9.252.46

Accuracy%62%49%

Defense%44%39%

Takedowns/153.90.6

TD defense%75%52%

Submissions/150.00.0

Career rate as a percentile within the heavyweight (270 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Markets

Market comparison

Kalshi · updated 9m ago

Josh Hokit

Consensus

78%▲ 3

Best price to bet Hokit

Kalshi78¢bestSportsbook-45079%

Derrick Lewis

Consensus

22%▼ 2

Best price to bet Lewis

Kalshi23¢Sportsbook+35021%best

Hokit 78%22% Lewis

$180k vol · $146k OI$1.3M vol · $1.2M OI

Sportsbook

Method of victory

KO/TKO

SUB

DEC

Josh Hokit

47%-117

18%+385

11%+675

Derrick Lewis

18%+388

3%+3250

4%+2200

KO/TKO

Submission

Decision

Josh Hokit

47%-117

18%+385

11%+675

Derrick Lewis

18%+388

3%+3250

4%+2200

Total rounds

Line · 2.5

Over21%+350
Under79%-590

Goes the distance

Yes16%+500
No84%-885

UFC betting history

Career

HokitJosh Hokit

LewisDerrick Lewis

3-0100%

As favorite

12-475%

—

As underdog

8-753%

Line movement

Win probability over time

tap to toggle

Notes

Consensus averages Kalshi’s real-money price with the sportsbook’s vig-free probability. “Best price” is the cheaper cost to back a fighter — lower = better value.

Sportsbook percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts.

Career splits

HokitJosh Hokit

Stat

LewisDerrick Lewis

2

—

KO / TKO

16

8

0

—

Submission

0

2

1

—

Decision

4

1

6:58

Avg fight time

8:50

Josh Hokit’s splits

vs Lewis

vs Orthodox

2-0100%

vs Southpaw

1-0100%

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

3-0100%

vs Shorter reach

0-0no data

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile.

Derrick Lewis’s splits

vs Hokit

vs Orthodox

18-772%

vs Southpaw

1-325%

vs Switch

1-150%

vs Longer reach

7-370%

vs Shorter reach

12-763%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Josh HokitvsDerrick Lewis

28

Age

13y

younger

41

6'1"

185cm

Height

2"

taller

6'3"

191cm

74"

187cm

Reach

5"

reach

79"

201cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense mapped against the other's defense — where one attacks meets where the other gets hit, across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

B

62nd

+9

C

52nd

Hokit has the striking edge (+9).

Attacking

Hokit’s offensevsLewis’s defense

Where Hokit attacks (green = high volume) vs where Lewis gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Hokit’s green zones meeting Lewis’s red zones are the openings.

Josh HokitOffense

Head91%94th204
Body9%64th19
Leg0%46th0

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Derrick LewisDefense

Head62%67th435
Body21%52nd146
Leg18%49th124

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Hokit — by position

76%Standing

Standing76%170
Clinch18%41
Ground5%12

Lewis — absorbed by position

58%Standing

Standing58%408
Clinch16%115
Ground26%182

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Hokit’s offensevsLewis’s defense

Head

A+

94th

68.7

+27

B

67th

25.4

Body

B

64th

10.4

+12

C

52nd

8.2

Leg

C

46th

4.6

Even

C

49th

6.9

Lewis’s offensevsHokit’s defense

Head

C

48th

29.7

+39

F

9th

58.2

Body

C

43rd

6.6

+8

D

34th

10.5

Leg

D

30th

2.3

+19

C

49th

7.2

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Josh Hokit	top 6% of division68.7	59%	bottom of the division58.2	204
Head	Derrick Lewis	around division average29.7	46%	above division average25.4	533
Body	Josh Hokit	above division average10.4	79%	below division average10.5	19
Body	Derrick Lewis	below division average6.6	70%	around division average8.2	113
Leg	Josh Hokit	around division average4.6	—	around division average7.2	0
Leg	Derrick Lewis	below division average2.3	71%	around division average6.9	29

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.

UFC only

Josh Hokit

Derrick Lewis

Each metric graded on the division — the bar leans toward whoever wins that part of the grappling exchange (longer + greener = a bigger edge).

Overall Grappling

Grappling

B

60th

+18

C

42nd

Hokit has the grappling edge (+18).

Takedowns

B

60th

0.7

+16

C

43rd

0.5

Takedown accuracy

33%

1/3

D

35th

26%

10/38

Takedown defense

B

59th

75%

6/8

+21

D

38th

52%

54/103

Submission threat

B

64th

0.0

+14

C

50th

0.0

Control time

B

59th

3.2 min

+13

C

45th

1.7 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Josh Hokit	Derrick Lewis
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	0.71	0.510
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	33%1 / 3	26%10 / 38
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	75%6 / 8	52%54 / 103
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.00	0.00
Control time / 15 (min)career total	3.2 min4:26	1.7 min30:49
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	1.5 min2:05	5.3 min96:41

All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time. Accuracy under 8 career attempts is shown raw and ungraded — too small a sample to rate against the division.

Common opponents

The single UFC opponent both fighters have faced. Reads as a directional signal, not a verdict.

Josh Hokit

Derrick Lewis

Record vs common opponents

Even

1-0

1-0

1-0

1-0

Both won

Decision (Unanimous)R3· 5:00

Schedule Score

Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.

UFC only

Josh Hokit

37

Schedule Score

Derrick Lewis

72

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

21 min

3 bouts

Octagon time

253 min

more

274 min

31 bouts

Schedule strength

35%

70%

Win quality

79%

57%

Ranked opponents

1

22

Title-holder bouts

0

1

Opponent quality distribution

every UFC bout, bucketed by who the opponent was at the time

Josh Hokit

3 bouts

1

2

Derrick Lewis

31 bouts

10

12

5

Champion

Top-5

Top-15

Cross-div ranked

Established

Unproven

Pre-UFC opposition

non-UFC slate for Josh Hokit, from opponents’ full pro records

Josh Hokit

Moderate

Opponents' combined record

18-18

.500 win rate

Winning-record opponents

2 of 5

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

5

all opponents have records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Josh Hokit	Derrick Lewis
Champion	—	1-1
Top-5	1-0	3-7
Top-15	—	10-2
Cross-div ranked	—	1-0
Established	—	0-1
Unproven	2-0	5-0

Josh Hokit — bouts

Derrick Lewis — bouts

All figures are 0–100 ratings (shown as %), not percentages of anything literal. Schedule strength = the average quality of every UFC opponent faced (win or lose). Win quality = the average quality of the opponents actually beaten. The composite Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with win quality (35%). Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, falling back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. For fighters with limited UFC experience the headline is held toward a rookie baseline, so debut / low-sample fighters read lower than established names. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts (non-UFC fights dashed + tagged), current trajectory, and the level of opposition going into this matchup.

Josh Hokit

Derrick Lewis

Hokit — last 5

recent → old

WLFA

KO R1

Lunsford

May ’25

WLFA

SUB R1

Latu

Mar ’25

Lewis — last 5

recent → old

Last 5 record

5-0

3-2

Current streak

W5

L1

Ranked opps

1 of 5

4 of 5

Layoff

2 mo

5 mo

Finishing & durability

How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.

Josh Hokit

Derrick Lewis

When their fights end

every UFC finish on the fight clock

Hokit2W–0L by finish · all in round 1

R1

R2

R3

R4

Lewis16W–10L by finish

R1

R2

R3

R4

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

20:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

Even

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

Even

B

59th

89%

Even

C

56th

86%

Goes the distance

Both finishers

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Both finishers

11%

17%

KO durability

↑19%·Hokit

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

↑19%·Hokit

A

79th

0%

+44

D

35th

19%

Submission defense

↑5%·Hokit

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

↑5%·Hokit

C

54th

0%

+15

D

39th

5%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Josh Hokit	Derrick Lewis
Wins
by KO / TKO	5(56%)	24(83%)
by submission	3(33%)	1(3%)
by decision	1(11%)	4(14%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	0	8(62%)
by submission	0	2(15%)
by decision	0	3(23%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

Finish-time and round-by-round numbers are UFC-only and don’t change with this toggle.

KO history

UFC fights only — knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head, then when the last finish landed, and on whom.

Josh Hokit

vs

Derrick Lewis

75%

3 KO/TKO in 4 bouts

Knockout rate

52%

16 KO/TKO in 31 bouts

2

1.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

11

2.1 / 100 head

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

8

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

0

0.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

5

1.1 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Josh HokitFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Derrick LewisFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Waldo Cortes Acosta4 months ago
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · Jan 24, 2026 · R2 · 3:14
Last time submitted
vs Serghei Spivac3y 4mo ago
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac · Feb 4, 2023 · R1 · 3:05

Pace & fade

How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.

UFC only

Josh Hokit

—

< 2 bouts to R3

Derrick Lewis

110%

R3 vs R1 · 12 bouts reaching R3

Lewis lifts to 110% of round-1 output by round 3 (within fights reaching round 3). Hokit hasn't reached the third round in enough UFC bouts to read a pace pattern yet.

Hokit

Lewis ▼ FADESOutput / min

Faded points are drawn from a single bout that reached that round, so they’re less reliable than the solid points averaged over many fights.

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Hokit

Lewislanded / min

Takedown attempts

Hokit

Lewisattempts / min

Control time

Hokit

Lewis% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Josh Hokit	10.2	8.0	5.6	0.27	36%	3
R1	Derrick Lewis	3.3	2.2	2.4	0.15	15%	31
R2	Josh Hokit	11.1	10.8	11.2	0.00	7%	1
R2	Derrick Lewis	3.5	2.8	2.8	0.10	10%	21
R3	Josh Hokit	16.5	16.4	12.0	0.00	4%	1
R3	Derrick Lewis	3.1	2.5	3.1	0.14	4%	12
R4	Josh Hokit	—	—	—	—	—	—
R4	Derrick Lewis	4.2	3.3	2.2	0.16	9%	3
R5	Josh Hokit	—	—	—	—	—	—
R5	Derrick Lewis	2.1	1.2	0.0	0.20	8%	1

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.