Lawrence Lui vs Hector Santiago Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Lawrence Lui

edge

Hector Santiago

Striking

Not enough data

Effective offense1.5—

Defense60%—

KO power4 KO—

See full Striking →

Wrestling

Not enough data

Takedowns landed7.0—

Takedown accuracy47%—

Takedown defense——

Control time5.0 min—

See full Grappling →

Submission

Not enough data

Submission attempts0.0—

Sub win rate

C

54th

0%

0 subs

Even

C

55th

0%

0 subs

Submission defense

D

41st

0%

+10

D

31st

14%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

Santiago ▸

Santiago finishes a higher share of wins — 83% (5/6) vs 50% (3/6).

Finish rate (of wins)

50% (3/6)

83% (5/6)

By KO/TKO

3

5

By submission

0

Even

0

Avg finish round

R1.7 avg finish

R1.3 avg finish

See full Finishes →

Pace

Santiago ▸

Santiago ends fights earlier — only 14% of bouts go the distance.

Goes the distance

57%

14%

Avg finish round

R1.7 avg finish

R1.3 avg finish

See full Pace →

Form

Even

Similar recent form — Lui 4-1 in the last 5 (3-fight win streak), Santiago 4-1 (2-fight win streak).

Last 5

4-1

Even

4-1

Current streak

3-fight win streak

2-fight win streak

See full Form →

Schedule

Not enough data

Schedule strength8%—

Win quality56%—

Ranked opponents

0

Even

0

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

See full Schedule →

Activity

Even

Similar activity going in

Last bout

7mo

3mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

1

0

Bouts, last 24 mo

1

0

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

◂ Lui

Lui 10 cm

Lawrence LuivsHector Santiago

30

Age

3y

younger

33

5'8"

173cm

Height

4"

taller

5'4"

163cm

72"

183cm

Reach

—

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Pre-UFC opposition

non-UFC slate for each fighter, from opponents’ full pro records

Comparable level of opposition — both faced slates around .533 opponent win rate.

Lawrence Lui

Moderate

Opponents' combined record

28-25

.528 win rate

Winning-record opponents

2 of 6

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

6

all opponents have records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

Hector Santiago

Opponents' combined record

7-6

.538 win rate

Winning-record opponents

1 of 1

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

7

1 opponents with records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

Markets

Market comparison

Kalshi · updated 13m ago

Lawrence Lui

Consensus

71%▼ 4

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet Lui

Kalshi72¢bestSportsbook-28571%

Hector Santiago

Consensus

29%▲ 1

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet Santiago

Kalshi29¢bestSportsbook+23029%

Lui 71%29% Santiago

$2k vol · $1k OI$7k vol · $7k OI

Sportsbook

Method of victory

KO/TKO

SUB

DEC

Lawrence Lui

27%+200

17%+375

29%+175

Hector Santiago

12%+550

3%+2600

12%+600

KO/TKO

Submission

Decision

Lawrence Lui

27%+200

17%+375

29%+175

Hector Santiago

12%+550

3%+2600

12%+600

Total rounds

Line · 2.5

Over50%-108
Under50%-104

Goes the distance

Yes44%+115
No56%-145

UFC betting history

Career

LuiLawrence Lui

SantiagoHector Santiago

Line movement

Win probability over time

Kalshi75%71%4 pts

Sportsbook72%70%3 pts

Notes

Consensus averages Kalshi’s real-money price with the sportsbook’s vig-free probability. “Best price” is the cheaper cost to back a fighter — lower = better value.

Sportsbook percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

LuiLawrence Lui

Stat

SantiagoHector Santiago

0

—

KO / TKO

—

0

—

Submission

—

1

—

Decision

—

15:00

Avg fight time

—

Lawrence Lui’s splits

vs Santiago

vs Orthodox

0-0no data

vs Southpaw

1-0100%

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

0-0no data

vs Shorter reach

1-0100%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Hector Santiago’s splits

vs Lui

vs Orthodox

0-0no data

vs Southpaw

0-0no data

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

0-0no data

vs Shorter reach

0-0no data

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Lawrence LuivsHector Santiago

30

Age

3y

younger

33

5'8"

173cm

Height

4"

taller

5'4"

163cm

72"

183cm

Reach

—

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

C

53rd

Even

C

51st

Evenly matched striking — no clear edge either way.

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Lui’s offensevsSantiago’s defense

Head

B

62nd

33.9

36.7

Body

C

51st

9.7

11.6

Leg

C

52nd

7.4

9.0

Santiago’s offensevsLui’s defense

Head

31.5

D

32nd

40.8

Body

10.9

C

58th

9.4

Leg

8.2

B

60th

6.8

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Lawrence Lui	above division average33.9	32%	below division average40.8	41
Head	Hector Santiago	31.5	—	36.7	0
Body	Lawrence Lui	around division average9.7	38%	above division average9.4	6
Body	Hector Santiago	10.9	—	11.6	0
Leg	Lawrence Lui	around division average7.4	100%	above division average6.8	5
Leg	Hector Santiago	8.2	—	9.0	0

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Lawrence Lui

Hector Santiago

Overall Grappling

Grappling

B

69th

—

Takedowns

A+

87th

7.0

—

Takedown accuracy

B

64th

47%

7/15

—

Takedown defense

—

Submission threat

B

60th

0.0

—

Control time

B

64th

5.0 min

—

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Lawrence Lui	Hector Santiago
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	7.07	0.00
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	47%7 / 15	—0 / 0
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	—0 / 0	—0 / 0
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.00	0.00
Control time / 15 (min)career total	5.0 min4:59	0.0 min0:00
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	0.2 min0:14	0.0 min0:00

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Lawrence Lui

28

Schedule Score

Hector Santiago

—

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

15 min

1 bout

Octagon time

—

UFC debut

Schedule strength

8%

—%

Win quality

56%

—%

Ranked opponents

0

Even

0

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Lawrence Lui	Hector Santiago
Unproven	1-0	—

Lawrence Lui — bouts

W vs Sulangrangbo8
Jan 31, 2026 · Unproven

Hector Santiago — bouts

No resolved UFC bouts.

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Lawrence Lui

Hector Santiago

Lui — last 5

recent → old

WSFS 18

DEC

Mitchell

Jul ’24

WETERNAL

KO R1

Meech

Jun ’24

LETERNAL

DEC

Drilich

May ’22

WSFS 10

KO R2

Price

Mar ’22

Santiago — pre-UFC · last 5

recent → old

WMONEY

KO R1

Nogueira

May ’26

WPURO

DEC

Henrique

Mar ’26

LTHUNDER

SUB R2

Alcino

Dec ’25

WTHUNDER

KO R2

Sales

Sep ’25

WJUNGLE

KO R1

Santos

Jul ’25

Last 5 record

4-1

Even

4-1

Current streak

W3

W2

Ranked opps

0 of 5

Even

0 of 5

Layoff

7 mo

3 mo

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Lawrence Lui

Hector Santiago

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Lui3W–0L by finish

R1

R2

R3

Santiago5W–1L by finish · 80% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑33%·Santiago

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑33%·Santiago

D

29th

50%

+27

C

57th

83%

Goes the distance

Even

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Even

56%

14%

KO durability

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

Even

B

66th

0%

Even

B

64th

0%

Submission defense

↑14%·Lui

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

↑14%·Lui

B

66th

0%

+25

D

41st

14%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Lawrence Lui	Hector Santiago
Wins
by KO / TKO	4(50%)	5(83%)
by submission	0(0%)	0(0%)
by decision	4(50%)	1(17%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	0(0%)	0(0%)
by submission	0(0%)	1(100%)
by decision	1(100%)	0(0%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Lawrence Lui

vs

Hector Santiago

0%

0 KO/TKO in 1 bout

Knockout rate

0%

0 KO/TKO in 0 bouts

0

0.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

0

—

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

0

0.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

0

—

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Lawrence LuiFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Hector SantiagoFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Lawrence Lui

—

< 2 bouts to R3

Hector Santiago

—

< 2 bouts to R3

Neither fighter has reached the third round in enough UFC bouts to read a reliable pace pattern — most of their fights end early. The round-by-round pace below is shown for what rounds there are.

Not enough shared rounds with per-round data to plot a comparable pace curve — at least one fighter rarely sees the later rounds.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Lawrence Lui	8.5	2.4	5.0	1.60	34%	1
R1	Hector Santiago	—	—	—	—	—	—
R2	Lawrence Lui	7.2	4.0	2.4	0.80	20%	1
R2	Hector Santiago	—	—	—	—	—	—
R3	Lawrence Lui	7.6	4.0	3.8	0.60	46%	1
R3	Hector Santiago	—	—	—	—	—	—

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.

Activity & layoff

Activity and recency vs division peers.

Matchup-relevant delta

Lawrence has 3 months more layoff

Time since last bout

Lawrence6 months

Hector3 months

Active

0–6 mo

Normal

6–12 mo

Layoff

12–18 mo

Extended

18+ mo

Lawrence Lui

Within a year

6 monthssince last bout

vs Sulangrangbo · Jan 31, 2026

Hector Santiago

Active

3 monthssince last bout

vs Paulo Nogueira · May 23, 2026

Lawrence Lui vs Hector Santiago — Bantamweight at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song