Xiao Long vs Francesco Nuzzi Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Xiao Long

edge

Francesco Nuzzi

Striking

Not enough data

Effective offense2.4—

Defense50%—

KO power5 KO—

See full Striking →

Wrestling

Not enough data

Takedowns landed0.8—

Takedown accuracy30%—

Takedown defense88%—

Control time2.1 min—

See full Grappling →

Submission

Not enough data

Submission attempts0.0—

Sub win rate

A

72nd

33%

9 subs

Even

B

69th

27%

3 subs

Submission defense

D

41st

0%

+11

D

31st

15%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

Nuzzi ▸

Nuzzi finishes a higher share of wins — 73% (8/11) vs 56% (14/25).

Finish rate (of wins)

56% (14/25)

73% (8/11)

By KO/TKO

5

Even

5

By submission

9

3

Avg finish round

R1.9 avg finish

R1.0 avg finish

See full Finishes →

Pace

Nuzzi ▸

Nuzzi ends fights earlier — only 20% of bouts go the distance.

Goes the distance

53%

20%

Avg finish round

R1.9 avg finish

R1.0 avg finish

See full Pace →

Form

Even

Similar recent form — Long 2-3 in the last 5 (2-fight skid), Nuzzi 2-3 (no active streak).

Last 5

2-3

Even

2-3

Current streak

2-fight skid

no active streak

See full Form →

Schedule

Even

Comparable level of opposition — opponents average 47% (Long) vs 50% (Nuzzi) career win rate.

Opponents avg win rate

47%

Even

50%

Opponents with a record on file

36 of 36

12 of 15

See full Schedule →

Activity

◂ Long

Long is fresher and more active than Nuzzi

Last bout

6mo

4mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

1

0

Bouts, last 24 mo

3

0

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

◂ Long

Long 13 cm

Xiao LongvsFrancesco Nuzzi

28

Age

2y

younger

30

5'8"

173cm

Height

5"

taller

5'3"

160cm

70"

178cm

Reach

—

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

On the bubbleXiao Long 28% cut risk · 2-fight skid

Pre-UFC opposition

non-UFC slate for each fighter, from opponents’ full pro records

Nuzzi faced the tougher slate — opponents averaged .552 career win rate vs .512 for Long.

Xiao Long

Moderate

Opponents' combined record

226-215-7

.512 win rate

Winning-record opponents

14 of 31

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

31

all opponents have records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

Francesco Nuzzi

Moderate

Opponents' combined record

79-64-2

.552 win rate

Winning-record opponents

5 of 12

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

15

12 opponents with records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

Markets

Market comparison

Kalshi · updated 13m ago

Xiao Long

Consensus

61%▲ 3

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet Long

Kalshi62¢bestSportsbook-17561%

Francesco Nuzzi

Consensus

38%▲ 3

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet Nuzzi

Kalshi38¢bestSportsbook+14539%

Long 61%38% Nuzzi

$693 vol · $693 OI$5k vol · $5k OI

Sportsbook

Method of victory

KO/TKO

SUB

DEC

Xiao Long

16%+400

15%+450

32%+150

Francesco Nuzzi

12%+600

8%+900

17%+375

KO/TKO

Submission

Decision

Xiao Long

16%+400

15%+450

32%+150

Francesco Nuzzi

12%+600

8%+900

17%+375

Total rounds

Line · 2.5

Over55%-135
Under45%+115

Goes the distance

Yes49%-110
No51%-120

UFC betting history

Career

LongXiao Long

NuzziFrancesco Nuzzi

Line movement

Win probability over time

Kalshi59%62%3 pts

Sportsbook62%62%

Notes

Consensus averages Kalshi’s real-money price with the sportsbook’s vig-free probability. “Best price” is the cheaper cost to back a fighter — lower = better value.

Sportsbook percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

LongXiao Long

Stat

NuzziFrancesco Nuzzi

1

0

KO / TKO

—

0

Submission

—

0

3

Decision

—

14:07

Avg fight time

—

Xiao Long’s splits

vs Nuzzi

vs Orthodox

1-325%

vs Southpaw

0-0no data

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

0-0no data

vs Shorter reach

0-30%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Francesco Nuzzi’s splits

vs Long

vs Orthodox

0-0no data

vs Southpaw

0-0no data

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

0-0no data

vs Shorter reach

0-0no data

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Xiao LongvsFrancesco Nuzzi

28

Age

2y

younger

30

5'8"

173cm

Height

5"

taller

5'3"

160cm

70"

178cm

Reach

—

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

C

51st

Even

C

45th

Evenly matched striking — no clear edge either way.

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Long’s offensevsNuzzi’s defense

Head

B

69th

37.2

36.7

Body

A

78th

14.7

11.6

Leg

A

83rd

12.2

9.0

Nuzzi’s offensevsLong’s defense

Head

31.5

C

46th

34.6

Body

10.9

F

11th

19.6

Leg

8.2

B

67th

5.8

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Xiao Long	above division average37.2	38%	around division average34.6	157
Head	Francesco Nuzzi	31.5	—	36.7	0
Body	Xiao Long	top 22% of division14.7	60%	bottom of the division19.6	67
Body	Francesco Nuzzi	10.9	—	11.6	0
Leg	Xiao Long	top 17% of division12.2	65%	above division average5.8	58
Leg	Francesco Nuzzi	8.2	—	9.0	0

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Xiao Long

Francesco Nuzzi

Overall Grappling

Grappling

C

55th

—

Takedowns

C

49th

0.8

—

Takedown accuracy

D

41st

30%

3/10

—

Takedown defense

A+

86th

88%

22/25

—

Submission threat

C

50th

0.0

—

Control time

C

48th

2.1 min

—

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Xiao Long	Francesco Nuzzi
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	0.83	0.00
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	30%3 / 10	—0 / 0
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	88%22 / 25	—0 / 0
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.00	0.00
Control time / 15 (min)career total	2.1 min7:52	0.0 min0:00
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	0.8 min2:55	0.0 min0:00

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Xiao Long

33

Schedule Score

Francesco Nuzzi

—

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

56 min

4 bouts

Octagon time

—

UFC debut

Schedule strength

36%

—%

Win quality

22%

—%

Ranked opponents

1

0

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Xiao Long	Francesco Nuzzi
Champion	0-1	—
Building	0-2	—
Unproven	1-0	—

Xiao Long — bouts

Francesco Nuzzi — bouts

No resolved UFC bouts.

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Xiao Long

Francesco Nuzzi

Long — last 5

recent → old

WWLF

DEC

Shamaiti

Mar ’22

Nuzzi — pre-UFC · last 5

recent → old

NCCW 204

OTHER R1

Costa

Apr ’26

WCW 195

KO R1

Rodrigues

Oct ’25

LPFL

SUB R1

Gutierrez

Apr ’25

WPFL

KO R1

Nezhad

Jul ’23

NCPFL

OTHER R2

Benkaci

Aug ’22

Last 5 record

2-3

Even

2-1

Current streak

L2

—

Ranked opps

1 of 5

0 of 5

Layoff

6 mo

5 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Xiao Long

Francesco Nuzzi

Post-result bounce

SituationLong Nuzzi

After a loss

1-150%

—

After a win

0-10%

—

Camp length

SituationLong Nuzzi

Typical camp100–180 days

1-0100%

—

Long layoff> 180 days

0-20%

—

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Xiao Long

Francesco Nuzzi

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Long14W–3L by finish

R1

R2

R3

R4

Nuzzi8W–2L by finish · every finish in R1

R1

R2

R3

R4

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

20:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑21%·Nuzzi

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑21%·Nuzzi

D

28th

52%

+22

C

50th

73%

Goes the distance

Even

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Even

55%

23%

KO durability

↑8%·Nuzzi

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

↑8%·Nuzzi

C

56th

8%

+12

B

68th

0%

Submission defense

↑15%·Long

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

↑15%·Long

B

69th

0%

+29

D

40th

15%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Xiao Long	Francesco Nuzzi
Wins
by KO / TKO	5(19%)	5(45%)
by submission	9(33%)	3(27%)
by decision	13(48%)	3(27%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	3(27%)	0(0%)
by submission	0(0%)	2(100%)
by decision	8(73%)	0(0%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Xiao Long

vs

Francesco Nuzzi

20%

1 KO/TKO in 5 bouts

Knockout rate

0%

0 KO/TKO in 0 bouts

1

0.6 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

0

—

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

0

0.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

0

—

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Xiao LongFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Francesco NuzziFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Xiao Long

125%

R3 vs R1 · 4 bouts reaching R3

Francesco Nuzzi

—

< 2 bouts to R3

Long lifts to 125% of round-1 output by round 3 (within fights reaching round 3). Nuzzi hasn't reached the third round in enough UFC bouts to read a pace pattern yet.

Not enough shared rounds with per-round data to plot a comparable pace curve — at least one fighter rarely sees the later rounds.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Xiao Long	5.5	4.7	3.6	0.10	13%	4
R1	Francesco Nuzzi	—	—	—	—	—	—
R2	Xiao Long	6.0	5.0	4.8	0.20	11%	4
R2	Francesco Nuzzi	—	—	—	—	—	—
R3	Xiao Long	6.9	5.4	4.0	0.24	19%	4
R3	Francesco Nuzzi	—	—	—	—	—	—

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.

Activity & layoff

Activity and recency vs division peers.

Time since last bout

Xiao5 months

Francesco4 months

Active

0–6 mo

Normal

6–12 mo

Layoff

12–18 mo

Extended

18+ mo

Xiao Long

Active

5 monthssince last bout

vs Cody Garbrandt · Mar 7, 2026

Francesco Nuzzi

Active

4 monthssince last bout

vs Manoel Costa · Apr 11, 2026

Xiao Long vs Francesco Nuzzi — Bantamweight at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song